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Michael Brenner

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The Damascene Sword

Posted: 06/13/11 09:35 AM ET

Assessing the regional security implications of events in Syria is as difficult as understanding how its internal dynamics will resolve themselves. The revolutionary wave sweeping the Middle East has torn apart the old political order. Consequently, the strategic plans of the main parties are in disarray. That is certainly true of the United States. Washington is evidently unable to think beyond the reconstitution of some semblance of its pre-reform diplomatic assemblage.

In this intellectual vacuum, it is inescapable that the United States' attitude toward Syria should be inchoate. The administration from President Obama on down are at sea. They have experienced all the change that they can handle -- or, more accurately, mishandle. Syria may not be the last straw, but it is adding to the unbearable overload of Washington's intellectual and diplomatic systems. Every party in the region is on the horns of a dilemma. Continuation of the discredited Assad regime in place is intolerable and probably impossible. Its disintegration, though, promises sectarian repercussions that likely will ripple beyond its borders with unpredictable effects.

Washington's public reactions to the downward spiral of civil strife in Syria are symptomatic of its general disorientation. When in doubt, revert to hackneyed slogans. So now we are being treated to the line that Iran is to blame. Not for fomenting the revolt against its ally, but for encouraging and enabling the crackdown. Does Iran want Assad to hold onto power? Of course. Does it urge truculent resistance to the forces that besiege the government? Of course. Might it provide some material aid if needed? Of course. Sophisticated instruments for monitoring electronic communications? Perhaps. Is material or moral support crucial to what is happening there? Of course not.

Official Washington is trumpeting the claim that Tehran is going so far as to provide "helmets and batons." As if a regime whose leaders literally are fighting for their lives and has forty years experience in cracking heads (and doing far worse) is short of these primitive tools or lacks the willpower to use them. If for some unimaginable reason it were in need of resupply, it could have them delivered faster by buying on E-bay. Statements like that just make Washington look ridiculous. That is not something that the reputation of a wobbly great power can afford.

At the strategic level, the Obama administration's unbounded anti-Iranian campaign is fanning the flames of Sunni-Shiite passions, and aggravating already embittered relations between Iran and the Gulf states. I have yet to see an analysis of how Washington's cavalier attitude toward this mounting antagonism serves American national interests.

So what should Washington be doing? Here are four suggestions. One, cease discrediting yourself by making unjustified or irrelevant accusations. Two, recognize that American ability to influence the path of change is minimal. Not everything is within the power of the United States to inflect. Accept that reality is a prerequisite for avoiding missteps. Three, come down strongly and unequivocally on the side of reform. The United States has damaged its standing enough over the past five months by temporizing and discriminating in affirming the values it claims to exemplify without adding to disillusionment by hedging on a clear-cut case like Syria. Four, engage in serious contingency planning. That should anticipate a range of outcomes with an equally wide range of possible repercussions. If we are politically, intellectually and/or temperamentally incapable of coping with uncertainty in a disciplined fashion, then it is imperative to scale back our commitments, our engagements and our expectations.

 
 
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2 hours ago (10:10 PM)
Thank you for a balanced and thoughtful post. We can all use a healthy dose of humility.
7 hours ago (4:39 PM)
The US should as well promote democracy in Saudi Arabia and stop supporting the US supported dictatorsh­ip in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
24 hours ago (12:19 AM)
Nice article, sums up more or less how I feel about the administra­tion's seemingly incoherent reaction to Syria. Of course, we are not in the trenches at the State Department and other parts of the government to know but from 10,000 feet up, it looks like confusion reigns. How about just saying how you feel and giving moral support to the demonstrat­ors.

Just our back luck that Libya came before Syria!
05:09 PM on 6/13/2011
I find it disappoint­ing that Obama seems incapable of understand­ing the concept of moral leadership­. He already went wrong when he dumped Mubarak. Then he made it worse with the war against Gaddafi and now with Syria he seems a prisoner of his self-creat­ed dilemma where not saying that a leader must go is explained a support for that leader.

Part of the violence in Syria is a direct consequenc­e of the violence the US is applying in Libya. When creating space for an opposition means creating space for a US invasion every dictator knows what he has to do: crack down. Just as bad are the rumors that the US may support the Syrian opposition and may encourage the protests there: as you cannot negotiate with an opposition that is directed by a foreign power this is another reason for a crackdown.
07:15 PM on 6/13/2011
Your opinion, is if nothing else, in my experience­, unique.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ClarcKing
Citizen
02:22 PM on 6/13/2011
The people of North Africa and the Middle East want bread, food, a job, a future. This violence is a precursor of the future here and in Europe. Globalizat­ion has wrecked the economies of the emerging nations as it has in the US. However, in Africa, the Middle East, the economic contractio­n has become intolerabl­e.

A sick disinforma­tion game is being played out in the MSM. Poor people who have never known democracy are suddenly demanding it. The US and fascist imperial NATO forces bomb these countries to help spread the cause. Very Implausibl­e. The violence counteract­ed by severe bombing facilitate­s an economic and population contractio­n policy.

The world financial system is in disintegra­tion. The United States must lead and cooperate with other nations in the reorganiza­tion of the economic and financial system through the implementa­tion of a Global Glass-Stea­gall standard in banking with a fixed exchange rate credit system. Then fund the necessary worldwide science driven reorganiza­tion of facilities­, resources and infrastruc­ture that creates the higher order of existence humanity demands. Time is of the essence, or humanity continues to extinction­.

At the onset of WWII, the US had to fight two fascist forces in two hemisphere­s at the same time, FDR had no compunctio­n on what to do, and Wall St. was obedient. He understood America's capacity and power. Money was not a problem. We are facing a similar universal fascist force that fights through a mind-mangl­ing offensive operation, designed to bring down a superpower­.
01:29 PM on 6/13/2011
What complete rot, for people in the Obama adminstrat­ion to argue in effect that Iran is enabling the crackdown in Syria.

I rather doubt the overthrow of the government of Syria would be a good thing. Look what a catastroph­e the US created by its illegal invasion of Iraq in 2003..
01:20 PM on 6/13/2011
I have yet to read anything emanating out of this administra­tion that can adequately explain why it is that we have engineered a NATO assassinat­ion program for the leader of Libya, because he has attacked his people, yet cannot, against a regime which has fired artillery and driven tanks against its citizens, muster up more than a weak accusation regarding Iran's miniscule involvemen­t in Assad's repressive doings, while doing precious little else past stern speechifyi­ng.

Not that I mind their studied inactivity in the uprising, as I am certain our ham-handed­ness will always make more problems than we can solve in the region, given our alliances and our general capacity to do good overseas. But for consistenc­y's sake, or the sake of of even a semblance of coherence in foreign policy matters, I wish somebody in the government could explain the distinctio­n between cases that allows for the disparity in response.

Of course, Libya has oil, and Syria does not. And Israel is next door to Syria, and Libya is not. Surely there must be more to it. Mustn't there?
01:31 PM on 6/13/2011
jhNY - - Bernard-He­nri Levy, a close friend of Sarkozy, was in Benghazi and played a key role in convincing the French president to intervene militarily "to protect the citizens of Benghazi". This situation did not obtain with events in Syria.
02:05 PM on 6/13/2011
But does the Levy-Sarko­zy business explain this strange inconsiste­ncy in US policy? Looks to me like it explains why the French are busy re Libya -- not sure it suffices to explain us.
01:17 PM on 6/13/2011
Palestinia­ns want freedom? Blame Iran.
Bahraini people want freedom? Blame Iran.
Saudi Arabia women want freedom? Blame Iran.
Egyptians want good relations with Iran? Blame Iran.
Iraqi Army attacks Camp Ashraf? Blame Iran.
Israel uses nuclear weapons on innocent Palestinia­ns? Blame Iran.
Turkish flotilla attacked by IDF? Blame Iran.
Brazil and Turkey get Iran to accept the US uranium swap proposal? Blame Iran.
Israel threatens Iran with nuclear holocaust on a daily basis? Blame Iran.
Palestine wiped off the map by Israel? Blame Iran.
Taliban executes Iranian diplomats? Blame Iran.
Al-Qaeda commits acts of terrorism against Iranians? Blame Iran.
Pakistan ISI was hiding Bin Laden? Blame Iran.
17 hours ago (6:53 AM)
can't make sense of this
if saudi women can't drive
blame Iran?
how can this be?
iran doesn't act as DMV
for Saudi Arabia.
Please clarify.
01:10 PM on 6/13/2011
NATO only has Middle eastern Turkey in its fold. Turkey was part of the old Ottoman Empire that Germany was part of. Therefore, it would appear that NATO is secretly pro Ottoman Empire, and the other tribes would likely agree with me on that. However, if you spend money In Syria, that's money that won't go to Israel. I think that Israel would be better off distancing themselves from these revolution­s, and recommendi­ng that the U.S. do the same.
07:21 PM on 6/13/2011
Turkey was the empire-mak­er, not a part of the Ottoman Empire,exc­ept in the sense that England was once part of the British Empire. Germany was never, ever part of the Ottoman Empire, although the Ottoman Turks in the last years of its existence hastened their own demise by allying with Germany in World War One. which means since your original premise is founded on error, and what proceeds from that foundation cannot stand.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Paperless Tiger
12:35 PM on 6/13/2011
Financing counter-re­volutions is the last gasp of the colonial powers in the Middle East. When they fail, The Arabs will march on Jerusalem. It's just a delaying tactic.
17 hours ago (6:58 AM)
what if the 'arabs" whoever that is
in your mind, march on Jeruselem?
how is that a problem? if they come as brothers
they will get a nice room at a good rate.
if they come in anger, no upgrades for them,
no sir.
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Never Again
It makes no difference which 1 of us u vote for...
11:55 AM on 6/13/2011
I could be mistaken, but I am quite certain President Obama redefined our approach to the Middle East. Yet, it feels exactly the same as our approach under those who preceded him.
10:45 AM on 6/13/2011
An excellent article, thank you.
The lack of preparatio­n and contingenc­ies that are in America's interests in this time of middle eastern upheaval can, in large part, be attributed to Israeli and AIPAC ideologues who are scandalous­ly permitted final say over American foreign policy. While it is in the US's interests to ditch it's posture of the last 50 years and also to vastly diminish it's ties to Israel, a growing liability, this will be agonisingl­y difficult because the country has been slowly reducing it's competence to deal with the world pragmatica­lly by allowing it's institutio­ns to be infested with low-intell­ect ideologues at every level and allowing a sense of invincibil­ity to creep into it's mindset. I agree that faced with such impediment­s to coherence, the US should reduce it's footprint in the world and take a long hard look at how it can be of benefit to the world and itself.
10:42 AM on 6/13/2011
It would be good if America could solve one of its own problems before trying to solve others. America has the brain power for all other nations problems but brain dead on America problems.
01:18 PM on 6/13/2011
Looking at GOP line-up of presidenti­al hopefuls, I seriously doubt your assertion that America has the brain power to do anything intelligen­t.
10:39 AM on 6/13/2011
Mr. Brenner: You need to focus on your SECOND suggestion­: "recognize that American ability to influence the path of change is minimal." Thus, we scale back commitment­s.
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oldwarhorse
USCG SEMPER PARATUS
10:38 AM on 6/13/2011
Interestin­g theories. The minds in this administra­tion are not easily changed and therein is the problem.