American politics

Democracy in America

Debt-ceiling negotiations

The great deal they cannot take

Jul 5th 2011, 14:48 by R.M. | WASHINGTON, DC

TODAY'S New York Times is chock-full of good stuff on or related to the negotiations over America's fiscal policy and debt ceiling. Three articles in particular caught my eye, acting as a fine summation of the situation. First is the Times's report that Barack Obama is offering billions of dollars in cuts to Medicare and Medicaid as part of the negotiations. "The depth of the cuts," the paper reports, "depends on whether Republicans are willing to accept any increases in tax revenues." Regardless, this has not been all that popular with members of the president's party and hospital lobbyists have begun a campaign against the cuts.

Next on my reading list is David Brooks' superb column on the Republican Party. About four months ago, John Boehner touted a report put out by Republicans that called for closing the budget gap by enacting 85% spending cuts and 15% revenue increases. That may have seemed impossible at the time due to Democratic opposition, but the current negotiations have swung so far in the Republicans' favour that the deal on the table now involves a ratio of spending cuts to revenue increases that is about that and includes no change to marginal rates. In other words, Republicans are getting most of what they wanted. Over to Mr Brooks:

If the Republican Party were a normal party, it would take advantage of this amazing moment. It is being offered the deal of the century: trillions of dollars in spending cuts in exchange for a few hundred million dollars of revenue increases...

But we can have no confidence that the Republicans will seize this opportunity. That’s because the Republican Party may no longer be a normal party. Over the past few years, it has been infected by a faction that is more of a psychological protest than a practical, governing alternative.

The members of this movement do not accept the logic of compromise, no matter how sweet the terms. If you ask them to raise taxes by an inch in order to cut government by a foot, they will say no. If you ask them to raise taxes by an inch to cut government by a yard, they will still say no...

The struggles of the next few weeks are about what sort of party the G.O.P. is — a normal conservative party or an odd protest movement that has separated itself from normal governance, the normal rules of evidence and the ancient habits of our nation.

So, will the Republicans make a deal? Can they? That leads me to my last NYT recommendation, entitled: "Time in House Could Be Short for Republican Newcomers". The new Congress just turned seven months old and already "some of the 87 freshmen who helped the Republicans win back the House last year are bracing for a challenge from within the party." One tea-party official says her members are dissatisfied with freshman House members for agreeing to the short-term spending agreement that avoided a shutdown earlier in the year. That deal cut about $500 billion from the budget over the next decade. The deal under consideration now is much larger, but it is just as unpalatable to the wing of the Republican Party that is currently ascendant.

John Boehner, then, may be right when he says that no deal with revenue increases will pass the House—no Republican member wants to be seen as having cut two deals with that socialist in the White House. The irony is that this inflexible negotiating position has gotten Republicans "the deal of the century", as Mr Brooks says. It also means they are unable to take it.

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1-20 of 62
Calivancouver wrote:
Jul 5th 2011 3:12 GMT

The deal of the century for posturing to boot. They republicans have no game theoretic credibility. When it comes down to it, there are enough votes in both houses for a clean raise in the debt ceiling because, beyond the Great Tihad, Boehner, McConnell, and company get it that default is bad. Nothing should be conceded under these conditions.

Doug Pascover wrote:
Jul 5th 2011 3:15 GMT

It also might mean they get a better deal.

Republicans in government are like old men watching dirty movies. All the interest's gone the minute the action comes on, and they never leave the house.

Jul 5th 2011 3:27 GMT

"That’s because the Republican Party may no longer be a normal party. Over the past few years, it has been infected by a faction that is more of a psychological protest than a practical, governing alternative."

Really, this should have been obvious years ago. You just have to switch your TV over to Fox News to see why our country is where it is today.

migmigmigmig wrote:
Jul 5th 2011 3:32 GMT

Uhm, no. Once a party has a majority in a house of congress, the fact that the people who voted for it were an "odd protest movement" or not, they have their hand on the tiller.

And they're aiming us over the precipice.

Top Hat 001 wrote:
Jul 5th 2011 3:36 GMT

Here is an arguement to try on Tea-Party Congressmen:
Q: Do you support the idea of the Constitution?
A: Yes.
Q: Do you support comprimise with the Democrats?
A: No.
Q: Wasn't a lot of the Constitution created because of comprimises between the Federalists and the Antifederalists, two ideologically oppossed groups?
A: Err...Yes.
Q: So if you love the Constitution so much, why do you oppose the idea of comprimise.
A:.....

pun.gent wrote:
Jul 5th 2011 3:53 GMT

Someone needs to show the Republicans what happens when both sides use blackmail and won't back down.

bampbs wrote:
Jul 5th 2011 4:05 GMT

I wholeheartedly dislike the Democrats, but since 1995, I have come to loathe the Republicans.

pumpkindaddy wrote:
Jul 5th 2011 4:26 GMT

This is called moving the goalposts. Now, I think that is a perfectly fine negotiating strategy, as long as at the end, when it comes time to make a decision and cut a deal, the side doing the goalpost moving says "o.k., we'll take that last offer, which was WAY better than what we actually said we'd take at first".

If, instead, at the end, the goalpost moving side says "Well, we just CAN'T accept that last deal, because, well just because. And now time's up." That means they were either:

1) Just bats__t crazy the whole time, and cannot be negotiated with. They're just unmoored from reality. Or,
2) They've been lying, and never intended to agree to anything, and thought no deal and its consequences was always a better outcome than any possible deal.

I think BOTH 1) and 2) apply to the Tea Party faction of the Republican party, but not to Boehner and McConnell and the majority of the Republican leadership. I just don't know who, in the end, is the faction who is calling the shots right now. We'll see.

Anymore, this is all just depressing to me. Because the real world consequences of no deal would be very, very, very bad, and cause a lot of real hurt and pain to a lot of people, all unnecessarily.

csofan52 wrote:
Jul 5th 2011 4:28 GMT

The Dems strolled onto Capitol Hill and into the White House, wielding the 'mandate of the people'. They crushed through the Affordable Healthcare Act without compromise. Now the the Republicans are doing the same thing, so it's hard for either to demand compromise.

pumpkindaddy wrote:
Jul 5th 2011 4:34 GMT

@csofan52: "The Dems strolled onto Capitol Hill and into the White House, wielding the 'mandate of the people'. They crushed through the Affordable Healthcare Act without compromise. "

Really? So they actually passed a single-payer system for universal health-care coverage? YEAH!!! Man, all this time I've been believing the lame-stream media that they only basically passed a big health-insurance extension bill that will probably make insurance companies more money and do little to control costs. Stupid me!

P_P wrote:
Jul 5th 2011 4:55 GMT

Gubmint should then try to collect more non-tax revenue :) Higher fines for employing "undocumented migrants", higher fees for this or that. It should "make sacrifices", make do with what it has or even with less, yet make more out of and for it. Similar to how the governed, who have no possibility of simply demanding "more revenue" out of the blue, have to do. Why not the gubmint?

nschomer wrote:
Jul 5th 2011 5:01 GMT

Sometimes I have a very hard time believing in representative democracy. Just 2 years after that walking disaster exits the White House, the country still mired in a long hangover...what do we do? Hit the booze again.
Even if Republicans do succeed in bringing down the country, and destroying the bedrock of the World's economy in the hopes of squeezing out another tax cut for the rich, we'll probably try again with the same jokers 2-4 more years down the road. What have they got to loose? When the electorate isn't responsible enough to hold you responsible for your horrendous governance, what more can we really expect?

OneAegis wrote:
Jul 5th 2011 5:08 GMT

I have a question: are these cuts being touted the kind of cuts that were done before? Mainly, "We planned to spend $200 trillion dollars in military spending by 2040; we have now agreed to only spend $1 trillion, thus enacting $199 trillion in cuts!"

Doug Pascover wrote:
Jul 5th 2011 5:26 GMT

To be a little more serious, this is why I consider it a critical duty of U.S. citizens in 2011 to support any political opportunity to weaken our parties. I doubt the tea-party folks plus the liberal left together compose more than about 10% of us. They are entitled to their votes and to not be condescended to by their neighbors but no more so than the rest of us. Our votes count much less because the partisan primaries lock us into this elitism where it is not the richest, the bravest or the most likely to appear in print who run everything but the most sanctimonious with the most irritable natures and bowels.

So, fellow Americans, I ask your support. When an open primary law comes into the marketplace of ideas, donate to and vote for it. There's nothing in America that will get worse if the parties get weaker and their bases less basic.

LexHumana wrote:
Jul 5th 2011 5:31 GMT

@ pumpkindaddy,

There is actually a 3rd option you didn't list:
3) the other side is caving in repeatedly, so I'm going to continue making more and more demands.

pun.gent wrote: Jul 5th 2011 3:53 GMT "Someone needs to show the Republicans what happens when both sides use blackmail and won't back down."

Yeah, right. It certainly won't be the Democrats -- the only reason the GOP is being stubborn and asking for progressively more and more concessions is because the Democrats keep caving in to them.

LexHumana wrote:
Jul 5th 2011 5:33 GMT

Doug Pascover wrote: Jul 5th 2011 3:15 GMT
"Republicans in government are like old men watching dirty movies. All the interest's gone the minute the action comes on, and they never leave the house."

DP, I ask this with great trepidation: did you come up with this analogy from personal experience?

Doug Pascover wrote:
Jul 5th 2011 5:39 GMT

Lex, after I posted that I realized with great trepidation someone would ask me that.

OneAegis wrote:
Jul 5th 2011 5:46 GMT

DP, I do believe that is as artful a dodge as I have seen outside of Congress.

JGradus wrote:
Jul 5th 2011 5:48 GMT

I ain't no big fan of the republican or the American right but to liberal friends across the pond:

For God's sake, stop whining, buck up and show some god damn courage. Of course the republicans play dirty, it is politics, that is what you do. If you can't deal with it, find some one who can and get out of the game.

Jul 5th 2011 5:58 GMT

A critical part of Brook's column: "The party is not being asked to raise marginal tax rates in a way that might pervert incentives. On the contrary, Republicans are merely being asked to close loopholes and eliminate tax expenditures that are themselves distortionary. This, as I say, is the mother of all no-brainers."

Usually Democrats want tax hikes that have negative effects beyond the tax itself. But eliminating deductions and credits have positive effects beyond the revenue itself. If what Brooks says is true, it really is a no-brainer and the Democrats should release the plan at some point so I can know which Republicans to punish. However, given the Democrats' historical love for distortionary taxes, I'm skeptical that what the Democrats are calling "closing loopholes" isn't really enacting new distortionary taxes.

1-20 of 62

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