According to a study by the African Development Bank (AfDB), the protracted Libyan crisis has increased the vulnerability of the Tunisian economy, with exports to Libya down 34 per cent, while imports recorded a 95 per cent decline.

The quarterly analytical paper for North Africa, produced in early August by the AfDB, the crisis has hit several sectors of the Tunisian economy, particularly tourism and manufacturing.

The study also shows the crisis has led to a decline in the funds sent home by Tunisian workers abroad as well as trade in border areas. In particular, some 41,322 Tunisian workers, out of around 92,000, have returned from Libya since February, when the crisis started, thus affecting the volume of remittances.

When it comes to tourism, the study shows that Libyans in 2010, Libyans spent 890 million dinars in Tunisia, representing about 18 per cent of Tunisia's annual tourism revenue. However, only about 260,000 Libyans crossed over to Tunisia till the end of April, representing only 14 per cent of the total number of entries in 2010.

If Libyans stop using Tunisia entirely, the loss would amount to 750 million dinars, equivalent to 86 per cent of Libyan spending in this sector in 2010. But according to AfDB experts, this should be partially offset by an increase in consumption, equal to 0.1 percentage points, due to increased demand from Libyan refugees in Tunisia, estimated at 65,000.

Furthermore, according to the AfDB, Tunisia will have to look for an alternative source of petroleum products that were previously imported from Libya.

On a positive note, in the last three months, the security situation in Libya has boosted transfers from Libyan banks, notably through the accounts of the Tunisian-Libyan banks (International Bank of North Africa, ALUBAF International Bank and the Tunisian-Lybian Bank).