The Opposition announced a National Council. Increasingly, the opposition is getting organized. Opposition members are scrambling to get their house in order. A number of differences have been put aside in order to make up the National Council on Thursday. But many differences remain and a few opposition groups within the country are trying to put together a National Assembly. The best article on the National Council is by Khalid Oweis of Reuters. He writes:

President Bashar al-Assad’s opponents have taken a step toward unity by forming a national council to represent Syria’s uprising but have a long way to go until they create a broad-based alternative to his rule….

the council has yet to produce a credible leader who can command wide respect on the street. Other groups may still try to set up alternative leaderships both inside and outside Syria.

“They have not brought together everyone, and there are varying objections on the members, but the fact is that they finally formed a council after months of bickering over the names, while the regime has been killing 20 Syrians a day,” prominent Syrian writer Hakam al-Baba told Reuters.

“A main objective now is to address the international community, and I think the council can do that. They have also left the door open for the rest of the opposition to join,” said Baba, a dissident who lives in the Gulf.

The opposition is also still far from forming a front similar to one set up in the past by Iraqi opposition groups which campaigned for Saddam Hussein’s removal and was well connected in the West, especially Washington.

One opposition figure not in the council said Islamists were over-represented on the newly announced body.

“The National Council has taken an Islamist flavor at the time we need to assure all minorities and the ethnicities more of their future in a post-Assad Syria,” said Thamer al-Jahmani, a prominent lawyer from Deraa who took refugee in Jordan last month after the assassination of a fellow activist….

The council will broadly be based on the principle of representing different sections of the Syrian society. For example, 30 percent of the council members are said to be from Islamic-leaning groups ( Muslim Brothers ), 30 percent left-leaning groups and 40 percent from various ethnic groups present in Syria; although, there is no rigid percentage system.

Yasser Tabbara, an independent member of the council, said “Everyone who is committed to our basic principles is welcome to join the council.” The council is made up of 65 people who live outside Syria and 70 from inside at the moment, although this number will be open to expansion as new figures will join the council.

Tabbara told Xinhua news agency that the basic principles of the council consist of toppling Bashar al-Assad’s regime, commitment to peaceful nature of the revolution, opposition to any foreign intervention and maintaining the national unity of Syria. He also said the council would not work with anyone who negotiated with the Assad government. The various positions in the National Council will be determined after an election process is completed in the next few weeks, said Tabbara.

See Tabbara on al-Jazeera debate the efficacy of the new council with Nadim Shehadi and Naim Salem – a good discussion by smart people.

“The council sees three stages in the near future consisting of changing the regime, post-regime transition and then the future political path,” said Bassmah Ghodami, a Paris-based Syrian opposition member. Ghodami said each stage is expected to last six months but the time frame is flexible depending on events on the ground.

Another aim of the council is to create a political umbrella for Syria’s rebels, according to Ghodami.

Syria’s internal opposition is getting armed and dangerous. Ugarit News reports that “a unit of the Free Officers’ Movement ambushed a Syrian security convoy on the Road to Hama, killing more than 30 and wounding more than 20. If true, it underlines Anthony Shadid’s recent contention that Syria’s opposition is increasingly becoming armed and lethal: “Syria’s Protesters, Long Mostly Peaceful, Starting to Resort to Violence.

Ausama Monajed, a leading activist and member of the National Council, insisted to me that the opposition is against taking up arms because they believe that a “tipping point” will be reached by peaceful action in which the regime “collapses,” due either to a coup inside the military or increased defections.

Many in the opposition believe this is unlikely. Some officials in the US also are beginning to fear that Syria has reached a stalemate: US worried Assad will weather storm, according to the Wall STreet Journal.   The armed opposition does not seem to be taking orders from the new National Council.

New OFAC Rules make it illegal for Americans to work in Syria.

I have asked experts whether this means that American-Syrians with duel citizenship are also forbidden to work in Syria as well, and await a more precise answer. It seems the State Department figure who can answer such questions is being reassigned so we must awaiting his replacement to take up his new post. So far the answer provided by one lawyer was: “tricky. Some argue that Syrian citizenship allows you to be treated as Syrian inside Syria…This needs clarification.”

STOCKS IN EGYPT last week reached a new low. They are now down 34%.
STOCKS IN SYRIA are now down 48%.

Nidal Maalouf, founder of Syria News, decided to immigrate after being harassed by security. He evidently was harassed because the site was not far enough in the pro-Assad camp. Last heard he is in Turkey.

Education School Year Begins in Syria: 5.6 million Syrian children entered school on September 18, the first day of the academic year – 1/4 of Syria’s population.

Imad Moustapha interview on CNN

Turkey Predicts Alliance With Egypt as Regional Anchors, By ANTHONY SHADID

COMMENTS BY READERS

Observations about Aleppo and the Economy

1- The areas outside aleppo have changed recently and have become more restive.

2- mazot is very hard to find. you cannot get anything at the official price of syp 15. You need to pay 23 and even then you get it in very small quantities. some who want to store for the winter cannot get it because the govt has forbidden mazot deliveries to home till October.

3- people in the city are very pissed off with the shabiha.

4- people are also very pissed off with the lawlessness and the illegal building that is taking place.

5- Tough boys are in control of the city.

6- Christians are very very pro-regime and that is surprising some Sunnis and creating some tensions.

7- winter is going to be key with mazot etc. also the upcoming sanctions are likely to impact Aleppo.

8- while Aleppo and Syria suffered in the 80′s , its not the same now. over past 10 years they have gotten used to things that will be hard to do without .

9-he feels that Aleppo was a fire wall from day 1 in Tunisia. it is not that the they were unprepared but the places the troubles started at came out of nowhere. no one thought of daraa, banyas or homs.

10-feels that just like every other place, it will be small villages outside Aleppo and then the poor areas of Aleppo that may see the action.

11- religious establishment has been totally embraced by the regime so that they don’t push the people. that worked. same for the business guys. the latter group does not feel that the regime is falling yet so they don’t want to pay the price of jumping ship now. they will stick with it but once they are convinced its going down they will do it fast.

12- when and if Aleppo does break , it will be uglier than anywhere else.

13. Many in the business community and among the elite have, over the past 2 months, started to get the feeling that things in Aleppo are not heading in the right direction and are thus trying to get family out of the country. Some are enrolling them in schools in the West, if they have family members there. The shabiha and their thuggish behavior is making people really mad. Mazzot prices will also be a barometer of public opinion.

Another view from a Syrian-American visiting Syria

None of the Syrians I met was panicking – including all of my first cousins who make their living entirely in Syria. Frankly, I was shocked. I was certainly more concerned than they were.

They seemed to indicate that we, as Syrians, have been there before and there is nothing new. And their survival confidence is higher than I have ever seen.

One prominent doctor from Aleppo whom I met in Istanbul told my that his wire transfer to his son in FL to purchase a condo was rejected by the US and returned to his bank in Beirut. Why? Because although his account was in Lebanon and it is in US dollars, the US does not accept or allow wire transfers from Syrians regardless whether they are on the sanction lists or not.

So, I sounded concerned and issued one of my famous (mainly fake) “sigh” in front of him in solidarity with his dilemma and in disgust with the US. He laughed. He said the money was re-transferred successfully the same day, under a different name and it cost him just $100 extra to do so.

His words: “Stupid Americans, they have no clue”.

So I asked how is Shihabi now going to get raw materials for his drug manufacturing factories in Aleppo. He laughed again (this time at me and my stupid question). Answer: “As he always did.” He buys raw materials from India. India gets it from all over.

The merchants of Syria – mainly in major cities will not be hurt in any meaningful way. They survived the Umayyads, the Abbassids, the Mongols, the Crusaders, the Ottomans, the French, the Baathists. They are survivors and they are there to stay. It’s just us who left and are scared for them.

Construction business? It is booming. They can hardly find enough workers to meet the demands – one prominent builder told me. In one story, he said his master tile guy was arrested because he was in a demonstration. The day after his arrest, his brother came in to fill the need. He was as good and there was no interruption.

An explanation by another reader

1- The construction business is booming because there is welcomed lawlessness in Syria. Aleppo is a construction site because no one is watching. You have an open roof on your building? you can turn it into a 2 bedroom apartment in a month. no permit. no baladiye to ask. our next door building did just that. You have a mazraa and you have always dreamt of a villa and a pool in the middle? No problem. in 3 months its done regardless of the fact that it is zoned as agrictultral land. my sister has one. she has 2 floors. her builder said i can add a third in 2 weeks. no need to ask anyone. basically over the past 6 months, syrians created their own tanzeem. once the f…ed up local govt was removed from the scene, your kids’ dream homes were quickly built. why the rush? because as soon as things return to normal , govt will come back. for now, they come , take a picture of what you have done and say goodbye.

2- Fares Chehabi can of course get raw materials from india, china, angola or burkina faso. 50 years of baaath have produced best smugglers in the world. every taxi driver can qualify. Every moukhales jumruki can import anything and produce documents to prove that it is something else. 3- money transfers in amounts that get wired in syria is a joke. of course you can always find someone. back in the days when a money transfer was subject to life in prison did not deter people. it just meant that you get charged more for the transfers. 4- the wealthy will always find a way. it just means a bit more expensively than the past but then again he can always charge more now because of the hardship in getting his wires and raw materials in.

Another Reader

I talked to a contractor friend of mine in Damascus and he says his business is back on track workers are more disciplined now, roads are opened and prices of cement are still up (very heavy building in the unplanned developments)

Another Reader

They are indeed enjoying the outdoor dining to the max! In Nadi Halab, the Gemini club and Swiss house in Damascus you can’t find a place to sit if you have no reservations. The sushi place and the 6 other cafes/restaurants in the four seasons boulevards are full every night. Same thing in the 10 restaurant complex near Pulman hotel in Aleppo. Even in Homs in eid the cafes near the malaab were half full! In revolting Douma, a guy there told me that during the early days of the uprising cafes used to close down immediately once a one of the daily demos start marching in the street where they are at. Now people continue to smoke argileh while watching the demonstrators there march 10 meters away, then order more drinks while watching the demonstrators run back while the security and shabbiha run behind them!

Syrians are now like the Lebanese. They adapted and decided to live their lives to the fullest despite everything. They will continue to adapt going forward.

Syrian Prometheus:

I am actually quite baffled by the stories denoting a construction boom. I have it on very good authority that the previously lucrative imports of timber, marble and other construction-related materials have slowed down dramatically. One major importer is keeping minimal inventories in this space while keeping food imports at relatively high levels.

The Harmoush Interview on Syrian TV – He is the leader of the Free Syrian Army who was captured by Syrian authorities

جميع أقولنا عن عدد المنشقين تمثيلية .. هرموش: تم التنسيق مع برهان غليون و رفعت الاسد وزهير الصديق ومحمد رحال و خدام والعرعور والشقفة-

Article in Sham Press about Harmoush’s TV interview. Harmoush explains that every opposition personality called him and asked Harmoush what his plan was. Harmoush would respond by asking them to present a plan and he would accept the most reasonable and the one that had financial logistics backing. Everyone promised and no one delivered.

According to Youth Syria for Freedom, Colonel Harmoush was conned by officers that he knew. They deceived him into believing that they needed to meet him inside the border to defect to Turkey. He went in and was trapped by security forces. Turkish Authorities have nothing to do with the incident.

Here is the complete video of the Harmoush interview on TV

حركة سوريا شباب من أجل الحرية Youth Syria For Freedom

أموي مباشر #syria ◄ هذا الكلام منقول عن أحد الشباب الذين لهم اتصال بالمقدم حسين هرموش وبمرافق له .. ونرجوا قراءة هذا الكلام بدقة .. :: :: :: :: :: تنبيه تنبيه مهم : تركيا ليس لها علاقة بإختقفاء المقدم حسين هرموش هو الذي هرب من المخيم للدخول الى سوريا ويبدو ان كمينا ما للمخابرات وقع به والنظام يقوم على بث اشاعة انه تركيا قامت بتسليم المقدم لضرب العلاقة بين الثورة وتركيا وحتى تخرج الناس تحجرق العلم التركي في الشارع مما سيجعل الشعب التركي يقول بعد أويناهم يحرقون علمنا الهدف من ترويج اشاعة ان تركيا هي من قامت تسلميه نؤكد لضرب العلاقة ببين الثورة وتركيا ول!
دق اسفين بينهما ولو تركيا ارادت تسلميه لقامت بتسليم غيره من قبل من الناشطين والنازحين وكل ما جرى نقله عن مبادلته بسبع من حزب العمال الكردستاني هي فبركة مخابرات وهذا النص الحرفي لما وردني من شخص مرافق للهرموش بتركيا اضعه لكم كما ورد بالرساله (((اخي شلونك طمني عنك؟تركيا ليس لها علاقة بموضوع حسين هرموش ولكن كان متواصل مع بعض الضباط الانذال وخبروه انهم يريدون الانشقاق ولكن عندما تكون انت با الداخل وعندما دخل كان كمين له والرجاء يا اخي ان لا احد ينشر اي خبر عن تركيا لانه يوجد اناس نخاف على حياتهم هناك ولو ان تركيا كانت تريد تسليمه كانت فعلتها من !
زمان)))
The Chief Commander of  the Free Syrian Army, Colonel R AlAs3ad, says:

Turkish Government is not to blame in the arrest of Colonel Harmoush by Syrian Forces. The Turkish authorities are investigating Harmoush disappearance and bringing him back. We hold the Syrian regime responsible for the well being and the life of Colonel Harmoush and we demand his release to the custody of the Turkish Authorities.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime will likely live through the anti-government uprisings despite sanctions levied by the US and its European allies, according to Jay Solomon in the Wall Street Journal.

The Obama administration is planning for a protracted confrontation with Assad as the revolt in Syria enters month seven.

The U.S. and EU have slapped oil sanctions on Damascus that could threaten up to one-third of the government’s revenue, but many experts believe they lack adequate “bite”.

Not to mention, the upper ranks of Mr. Assad’s military, dominated by members of his Shia Alawite religious sect, remain impressively unified in their support for the president and his family.

Meanwhile, an opposition that has been fragmented across religious, ethnic and geographic lines has failed to make much headway against the brutal violence employed by Assad’s security forces which have killed over 2,400 protesters.

Why Many Syrians Still Support Assad
The Christian Science Monitor

The Arab League yesterday called on Syria’s Assad to stop his ‘killing machine’ as the uprising enters its seventh month. But Assad, still backed by key groups, is unlikely to bow to such calls….

EU Sanctions on Syria Oil and Gas Industry Come Sith Loopholes
By: Paul Richter and Henry Chu | Los Angeles Times

As Syria’s foes intensify pressure on Bashar al-Assad, its friends are adopting a new tune, appealing to the president to embrace reforms and buy time for his embattled regime.

The most curious call for political progress is now coming from Iran, Syria’s main strategic ally in the Middle East.

Political analysts say the change of rhetoric reflects Iran’s nervousness over Mr Assad’s management of the six-month popular uprising. It is also a tactical move designed to limit the damage to Iran’s image in a region where it styles itself as a champion of the oppressed.

Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, the president who was himself accused of stealing the 2009 election, sparking an unprecedented wave of street protests, has spoken of “needed reforms” in Syria. More explicitly, Ali-Akbar Salehi, the foreign minister, has called on Mr Assad to “be accountable to his people’s legitimate demands”.

Mr Assad has waged a relentless military campaign to crush the revolt, leaving 2,600 Syrians dead so far, according to the UN. Western diplomats say he has been receiving advice and logistical support from Iran, a claim Tehran denies.

The campaign continues to intensify, with killings reported every day, but it shows no sign of breaking the will of the protest movement and is increasingly eroding the authority of the government.

Analysts in Tehran say Iran will support Mr Assad until his last day but is growing concerned about his increased weakness and ability to survive. A collapse of the Damascus regime would deprive Tehran of a vital ally and strike a blow to its ambitions for greater influence in the region at a time of historic change.

Syria’s uprising has been dominated by Sunni Muslims, the majority population that has been ruled by Mr Assad’s minority Alawite regime, an offshoot of Shia Islam. If the protest movement eventually prevails it is unlikely to produce a government that maintains as tight a relationship with Iran.

Some reports suggest that an Iranian official recently met activists from the Syrian opposition, in what could be an attempt to push for a dialogue between the opposition and the region in Damascus.

“Iran sees no other choice but to support reforms in order to buy time and also not to look like it is standing against Arab public opinion,” said a former Iranian official.

The Syrian uprising has exposed blatant contradictions in Iran’s attitude to Arab revolts. Tehran has hailed the Arab spring as an “Islamic awakening” inspired by its own revolution in 1979 but when it comes to Syria it has backed Damascus’s claims that the revolt is a foreign conspiracy designed to benefit Israel.

In Syria and across the region, however, Arabs who have risen against autocracy have more in common with the Iranian opposition crushed by the Islamic regime in 2009 than with current leaders. Their battles are driven by domestic considerations rather than a global struggle against America or a regional struggle against Israel.

Some of the slogans in Syria’s protests have directly targeted Iran and Lebanon’s Hizbollah, the Shia militant group backed by Tehran and Damascus, and expressed approval of Turkey, an ally of the regime which has been far more vocal in condemning Damascus’s actions.

“Iran cannot afford to be against Syrian public opinion any more because anger against Iran is getting really serious,” said one former Iranian diplomat.

More broadly, a recent survey of public opinion in six Arab countries, conducted by the Arab American Institute in Washington, found that Iran’s popularity has been in dramatic decline while that of Turkey has soared.

A political analyst with links to the ruling establishment in Tehran said Iran was pushing for more visible but still cosmetic reforms in Syria because drastic steps would spell the end of the Assad regime.

“The [Iranian] regime is steadfast in helping to keep Assad in power,” says the political analyst. “If there are real reforms, Assad has to leave power and that is not acceptable to Iran.”

The Arab spring is an Arab disaster – 15.09.2011, – Haaretz opinion

The choice in Syria will be either a bloodbath, an Alawite dictatorship or a Sunni dictatorship

The picture is clearing up. The Arab spring is an Arab disaster. In the coming years there will be no democracy in Egypt. The choice in Egypt will be either chaos, Islamic dictatorship or military dictatorship. In the coming years there will be no democracy in Syria. The choice in Syria will be either a bloodbath, an Alawite dictatorship or a Sunni dictatorship. In the coming years there will be no democracy in Jordan. The choice in Jordan will be either weakened Hashemites, the Muslim Brotherhood or Palestinians. In the coming years there will be no democracy in Libya. There the choice will be disintegration, disorder or renewed despotism. Perhaps in Tunisia a real change for the better will occur.

But the bottom line of the Arab spring is that the lives of hundreds of millions of Arabs will be worse. More poverty, more crime, more fear in the streets. More oppression of women, more persecution of minorities, more hatred of the West. Monarchies like Saudi Arabia, which thwarted the Arab spring – are now emerging as responsible states. In contrast, the republics defeated by the Arab spring are turning one after the other into failed states. They are tainted with fanaticism, spreading misery and creating unprecedented instability.

The picture is clearing up. The Palestinian September is an Israeli-Palestinian disaster. The Palestinian September was conceived by two European statesmen – Bernard Kouchner and Javier Solana. Those two naive men figured if they grant international sponsorship to Salam Fayyad’s Palestinian-state plan, they would force Israel to make a final-status arrangement.

But the Israelis did not cave in to the pressure. The Palestinians fell in love with the plan.

Syrian TV Station Accuses Al Jazeera of Fabricating Uprising – NYTImes Lede Blog, September 14, 2011

A YouTube channel called the Syrian Interpreter has posted a subtitled recording of the Syrian television station Addounia TV claiming in a Sept. 9 broadcast that the news station Al Jazeera has built enormous “cinematic replicas” of Syrian cities and squares in the Gulf state of Qatar in order to fabricate the uprising in Syria.

These replicas were built “with the help of some French and American directors” and are “exactly like the ones set up of the Green Square for Libya, with which they duped the Libyans and the world that Tripoli fell,” according to the channel’s English translation.

“With those replicas,” the subtitles read, “Al Jazeera will continue media fabrication and cinematic tricks by shooting scenes of big defections from the Arab Syrian Army and shooting scenes of clashes. Those scenes would be done by directors from the U.S., France, and Israel.”

A spokesperson for Al Jazeera said: “This is wackiness of the highest order which no one will be taking seriously. Many other journalists were in Tripoli reporting the same events, so it is telling that such is Al Jazeera’s influence in the region that supporters of these regimes are targeting Al Jazeera specifically for covering the uprisings.”

Erdogan’s Remarks Irk Muslim Brotherhood – SEPTEMBER 14, 2011 – Wall Street Journal

CAIRO—The Muslim Brotherhood objected to statements by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan telling Egyptians not to fear building a secular state, in a rare clash that exposes the gap between the so-called Turkish model for building a Muslim democracy and what Islamists in the region believe when they invoke it.

For much of Mr. Erdogan’s two-day visit to Egypt this week, members of the Muslim Brotherhood made up much of the fan club that followed Mr. Erdogan around Cairo. They championed his tough stance toward Israel and his promotion of Muslim solidarity.

U.S. ISSUES TRAVEL WARNING FOR SYRIA
2011-09-15

The U.S. Department of State urges U.S. citizens in Syria to depart immediately while commercial transportation is available. Given the ongoing uncertainty and volatility of the current situation, U.S. citizens who must remain in Syria are advised to limit nonessential travel within the country. U.S. citizens not in Syria should defer all travel to Syria at this time…..

WSJ [Reg]: Sanctions Won’t End Syria’s Repression
2011-09-15

On Sept. 2, the European Union, supported by the United States, imposed an embargo on exports of Syrian oil. The EU buys some 95% of Syria’s oil output, accounting for almost a third of Syria’s national income. By hitting the regime of Bashar Assad …

Writing a New Syrian Constitution | By Sami Moubayed

…. A hard reality is beginning to sink into the upper echelons of power in Damascus; that the Baath Party can no longer survive with the same regime, methods, tools and personalities that it used for nearly 50 years.

The Baathists need to dismantle their monopoly on power at will, because they are going to have to do so anyhow under increased pressure from the angry Syrian street. At any rate, Baath Party control — if not mandated by a true democracy — cannot survive in a new Syria. Article 8 and a democracy — which is the ultimate goal– can never go hand in hand.

Syria’s ports suffer as unrest hits economy
By Suleiman Al-Khalidi, Reuters

…Shipping sources say traffic in general cargoes, dry and liquid bulk cargoes, and containers at Latakia and Tartous has been slipping since the uprising broke out in March. They estimate volumes shrank an average 35 to 40 percent from a year earlier in the first eight months of 2011.

“Importers and exporters are being very cautious, and that has led to imports of raw materials falling sharply as production slows down in many industries due to the troubles,” a Syrian transportation official, who requested anonymity, told Reuters from Damascus.

Shipping agents and industry experts said container volumes, the vast majority of which are handled by Latakia, dropped in June alone by 36 percent from a year earlier to 33,527 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU).

Official Latakia port figures for the April-June period show a drop of 16 percent from a year earlier, but industry sources said this data was misleading because it included many containers with empty space.

In Tartous, which handles most of Syria’s bulk cargoes, or nearly 9 million tonnes of annual traffic in normal times, shipping sources said some European operators were avoiding the port after the European Union announced sanctions on Syrian oil exports at the start of September.

They said they were also seeing less business from Iraqi and other Arab traders who were deterred by the increasing checkpoints and roadblocks in many parts of Syria.

“We had 25 to 30 vessels daily arriving. This has dropped to between 10 to five daily,” said a major shipping agent based in Tartous, referring to vessels between 8,000 and 35,000 tonnes.

So far, major regular shipping lines such as Danish firm Maersk, French-based CMA CGM, Geneva-based MSC, and Germany’s Hamburg Sud have largely maintained normal vessel calls to Syrian ports despite lower cargo volumes, industry sources said.

Shipping agents say the companies are reluctant to pull out of a transit market that has served the whole region and still has great long-term potential because of its location.

New Party Formed

Syrian opposition members Hassan Kamel, Louai Hussain, Mona Ganem and Bahaa Al Deen Erkad at a press conference in Damascus to announce the formation of a party called ‘Building the Syrian State’. This is the first party to be announced in Syria since the endorsement of the multi-party law by Syrian President Bashar Al Assad last month.

Syrie : un officier supérieur parle
Le Monde Diplomatique, mercredi 7 septembre 2011

« L’armée de la Syrie n’est que l’armée des services de sécurité syriens (jaych amni). » Mon interlocuteur a prononcé ces mots gravement. On l’appellera Mohammed, c’est un officier supérieur sunnite.

Comment en est-on arrivé là ?

Il faut remonter aux années 1960 où, en quatre coups d’Etat, se mettent en place les cadres de l’actuel système politique syrien : la ruralisation des villes et du régime, l’arrivée au pouvoir de la minorité alaouite et la domination du parti et des civils par l’armée. Le dernier putsch, celui de Hafez Al-Assad, père de l’actuel président, en 1970, va parachever la construction du système autoritaire. Il instaure un maillage complet de la société syrienne autour de l’armée et des organes de la Sûreté, du parti et de la bureaucratie. Le régime utilise aussi les liens de solidarité familiaux, claniques, communautaires et régionaux pour se constituer une clientèle (qui est évidemment rémunérée par les postes de la fonction publique). Le croisement des liens communautaires et de l’obsession du contrôle sécuritaire produit la prédominance alaouite dans les hautes charges de l’armée et des organes de sécurité. Le ciment de l’édifice sécuritaire, c’est la culture de la peur que la révolte vient de mettre à bas. Sous M. Bachar Al-Assad (depuis 2000), le parti, la bureaucratie et l’armée sont passés directement sous le contrôle des services de sécurité, eux-mêmes entièrement aux mains de la famille Assad. Les Syriens considèrent même que le parti est le sixième service de sécurité.

- Z. : « Combien d’hommes travaillent dans l’armée et les services de sécurité ? »

- M. : « Leur nombre total dépasserait 700 000 personnes : 400 000 hommes dans les forces armées régulières, 100 000 hommes dans la police et les services de renseignement, et plusieurs dizaines de milliers employés à temps partiel par les organes de la Sûreté. »

Ce sont ces derniers qui forment les bataillons de chabbiha et de francs-tireurs. Les chabbiha sont des ruraux et sans doute des prisonniers de droit commun libérés au début de la révolte. On estime à plus de 100 000 le nombre d’Alaouites dans les services de sécurité, sans compter l’armée et la Garde présidentielle, forte de plusieurs dizaines de milliers d’hommes, qui est totalement alaouite. Les Alaouites représenteraient en 2011 quelque 10 % de la population. La moitié des fonctionnaires serait employée dans l’appareil de sécurité.

A ces hommes, il faut ajouter plus de 60 000 civils employés par le ministère de la défense (notamment dans l’établissement du logement militaire, mouassassat al-iskan al-askari, dirigé par un cousin d’Al-Assad). Ces hommes, comme d’autres agents de l’Etat, sont obligés, sous peine de perdre leur poste, de venir assister le pouvoir dans la répression : ce sont eux qu’on voit munis de bâtons électriques ou de barres de fer, souvent placés à la sortie des mosquées. Ils sont aussi mobilisés dans les manifestations de soutien au régime…

- Z. : « Mais cette armée est bien chargée de la défense du territoire ? »

Mohammed sourit, sa main qui allait prendre la tasse de café s’arrête, comme suspendue. Il la pose sur la table et me regarde.

- M. : « Certes, mais on peut s’interroger depuis les années 1990 : une grande partie du budget national est affectée à l’armée. Or, il n’y a plus de réel renouvellement de matériel pour la majorité des divisions et unités militaires. Alors, où va l’argent ? De plus, une brigade a été créée à la frontière avec Israël (liwa nitaq al-hita) mais elle n’est dotée d’aucune capacité militaire, elle n’a même pas de chars… Enfin, la direction militaire semble très occupée ailleurs comme, par exemple, écarter de l’armée et du service militaire les Damascènes : ainsi, un jeune Sunnite damascène peut payer une sorte de salaire mensuel à un officier responsable pour valider son service en restant chez lui ou en travaillant à Damas »…

- Z. : « En ce qui concerne les appartenances confessionnelles au sein de l’armée ? »

- M. : « On est arrivé à cette situation hautement symbolique où il n’y a plus que deux appartenances réelles : l’alaouite et la sunnite (fi alawi wa fi sunni) mais par sunnite, il faut entendre toutes les autres communautés » [sunnite, druze, chrétiennes, etc., soit 90% de la population, NDLR]. « En principe, poursuit mon interlocuteur, quand un commandant de division, de brigade ou autre unité militaire est sunnite, son adjoint est alaouite et vice-versa. »

C’est d’ailleurs le même principe qui dirige l’attribution des postes de ministres dans le gouvernement, chaque ministre non-alaouite étant chapeauté d’un adjoint alaouite qui détient la réalité de la décision politique. On notera que la récente nomination d’un chrétien à la tête du ministère de la défense, vise sans doute à impliquer plus encore les chrétiens du côté du régime.

- M. : « La décision dans l’armée (comme dans la Sûreté) revient toujours aux officiers alaouites, les sunnites n’ont pas de poids. Un lieutenant alaouite pistonné par la Sûreté peut exercer un pouvoir complet (kamel al-sulta) dans son secteur et avoir plus d’importance que son supérieur sunnite. Par exemple, ces officiers alaouites pistonnés, quelle que soit leur ancienneté dans l’armée, auront à leur disposition une belle voiture neuve et les officiers supérieurs sunnites poursuivront leurs déplacements à bord de vieilles Jeep… Les sanctions prévues pour les officiers en cas de faute grave ne sont pas appliquées avec la même sévérité aux uns et aux autres… De plus, les officiers sunnites peuvent faire l’objet d’enquêtes ou de surveillances internes pour s’assurer de leur loyauté au régime. D’ailleurs, il est très difficile pour un sunnite de s’élever au grade de général [amid], il est généralement mis à la retraite avant… »

- Z. : « Le principe confessionnel apparaît-il sous d’autres formes dans l’armée ? »

Mohammed prend sa tasse de café avant de répondre.

- M. : « Le principe confessionnel est généralisé mais relève du non-dit. L’armée syrienne est composée de sept divisions (firaq), chacune dirigée par un général de division (liwa). La quatrième division, commandée par Maher, frère de Bachar Al-Assad [et qui dirige aussi la Garde présidentielle], est la plus importante, elle compterait de 40 000 à 50 000 hommes, tous alaouites, et c’est la section qui reçoit l’équipement militaire le plus sophistiqué. C’est cette division qui a été impliquée dès le début dans la répression à Deraa. »

Mohammed boit une gorgée de café et ajoute :

- « Tous les officiers des services de sécurité viennent de l’armée. Dans la nomination des officiers, et leur promotion, c’est la Sûreté (amn) qui donne à l’Etat-major les noms des officiers à promouvoir… D’ailleurs, dans la répression de la révolte, toutes les décisions sont prises par les officiers de la Sûreté. Même lorsqu’il s’agit de déplacer un tank… L’armée syrienne incarne, si on veut, le pouvoir exécutif (al-sultat al-tanfiziyya) de la sûreté et pas de l’Etat-major. »

- Z. : « Et les officiers et soldats tués pendant la révolte ? »

- M. : « Il est difficile de savoir ce qui se passe exactement. Aucun militaire syrien ne doute de la capacité de la Sûreté à liquider ceux qui refuseraient d’exécuter un ordre. Dans la logique sécuritaire du régime, la Sûreté préfèrerait certainement abattre quelques alaouites pour pousser ou faire croire à un conflit confessionnel, c’est bien plus rentable pour le régime que d’abattre un sunnite ! Ceci dit, il n’est pas impossible que les militaires envoyés sur le terrain de la répression soient tous alaouites, on peut même penser que ce sont des éléments alaouites des quelque 100 000 agents de police et de la Sûreté que l’on a habillés en soldats pour les envoyer abattre du « sunnite ». Ce serait bien dans la logique de ce régime confessionnel qui ne dit pas son nom. Mais la mort de militaires ou de membres des services de sécurité peut aussi être liée à des actes de vengeance individuels, à des initiatives locales. Ainsi à Deraa en mars dernier, les gens ont repéré un sniper sur le toit d’un immeuble, ils ont brûlé l’immeuble pour se débarrasser du sniper… A Jisr al-Choghour, des habitants ont attaqué le poste de police avec un bulldozer. La répression est si violente, si barbare, qu’elle peut produire des réactions inattendues ! »

Il reste tout de même que l’on n’a aucune image de la mort de ces militaires alors que pour ce qui est des manifestants, on les voit tomber quasiment en direct…

J’ai dû penser tout haut, Mohammed me regarde avec un air ironique cette fois-ci.

- Z. : « Que faut-il penser de “l’armée syrienne libre” (al-jaych al-suri al-hurr) et peut-on envisager une éventuelle fracture au sein de l’armée ? »

- M. : « Il s’agit de dissidences individuelles et pas de la scission d’une unité militaire complète ! Ces dissidences isolées ne peuvent pas délivrer un quelconque message fort au pouvoir. La composition communautaire de chaque unité militaire empêche toute homogénéité pour les sunnites (mais pas pour les alaouites comme la quatrième division le prouve). La répartition des postes de commandement dans l’armée est organisée de telle sorte que même si un ordre dissident venait d’un officier du groupe sunnite, il serait bloqué à divers niveaux par des officiers et sous-officiers alaouites ou alliés du régime. Il ne faut pas attendre de cette armée le moindre soutien aux manifestants. Je le répète c’est une armée de barbouzes, jaych amni », dit-il en prononçant distinctement chaque syllabe…

- Z. : « Alors, quelles sont les perspectives de la révolte ? »

- M. : « Difficile à dire sinon qu’elles sont sombres. En même temps, le régime s’est perdu lui-même. Si les manifestants sont bien décidés à ne pas se soumettre, le régime n’est pas prêt non plus à céder quoi que ce soit. Les Assad n’arrivent pas à imaginer qu’un jour ils ne seront plus là ! C’est pourquoi la répression est allée en s’aggravant. Aujourd’hui, l’armée et le régime ont déclaré une véritable guerre aux manifestants pacifiques et aux civils syriens en lançant contre eux les hélicoptères, les blindés et la marine de guerre… La seule possibilité du côté militaire ne pourrait venir que d’une scission, peu probable, au sein de la direction des services de sécurité, qui pourrait alors entraîner d’autres secteurs de l’armée… »

Mohammed pose sa tasse de café, son regard se perd dans le vague.

En attendant, le régime diffuse un numéro de téléphone pour que les citoyens puissent dénoncer ceux qui le critiquent. Délation de triste mémoire…

Zénobie

أعلن القائمون على تشكيل المجلس الوطني الانتقالي اليوم عن أسم 71 عضواً من أعضاء المجلس الوطني، الذين يبلغ عددهم 140 عضواً، حيث يمثل الحراك الثوري وشباب الثورة 52% من مجموع أعضاء المجلس الوطني

The Names of the Opposition National Council.

1. إبراهيم اليوسف

2. أحمد رمضان

3. أحمد شاكر

4. أديب الشيشكلي

5. أسامة الشربجي

6. أسامة المنجد

7. أسامة قاضي

8. أنس العبدة

9. أنس عيروط

10. بدر الدين بحرو

11. بدر جاموس

12. بسام جعارة

13. بسمة قضماني

14. بشار العيسمي

15. بشار حسن الحراكي

16. جان عبد الله

17. جمال الوادي

18. حسام القطلبي

19. حسان الشلبي

20. حسان الهاشمي

21. خالد الحاج صالح

22. خالد خوجه

23. خليل كرو

24. رامي نخلة

25. رضوان العلمي

26. رضوان زيادة

27. رياض الحسن

28. ريمون معجون

29. ريمون يوخنا

30. ريناس سينو

31. زِيوَر العمر

32. سالم المسلط

33. سامر كيلاني

34. سداد عقاد

35. شادي جنيد

36. عبد الإله ثامر الملحم

37. عبد الباسط سيدا

38. عبد الباقي يوسف

39. عبد الرحمن الحاج

40. عبيدة نحاس

41. عفراء جلبي

42. عماد الدين الرشيد

43. عمار الحداوي

44. عمار قربي

45. عمر إدلبي

46. عمرو العظم

47. فداء المجذوب

48. كاميران حاجو

49. لؤي صافي

50. مأمون نقار

51. محمد العبد الله

52. محمد ثامر المهيد

53. محمد سرميني

54. محمد ياسر تبارة

55. محمد ياسين النجار

56. محمود الكيلاني

57. محمود عثمان

58. مصطفى الصباغ

59. مصطفى كيالي

60. مصطفى محمد

61. مطيع البطين

62. معاذ السباعي

63. منى محمد

64. موسى موسى

65. نجيب الغضبان

66. نذير حكيم

67. هبة الفوز

68. هشام مروة

69. هيثم رحمة

70. وائل مرزا

71. وجدي مصطفى

This is a video of the declaration on the National Syrian Council.

Another video clip with the names of the members of the council

On the Regime and the Opposition in Syria by Nabil Fayyad

Despite my very negative position on the regime for private and public reasons, the truth is that the regime is very strong, and neither the outside nor the inside were able to make it change its usual stances. This strength does not come from a vacuum. The regime has a broad popular base that supports it at home and abroad, whether out of conviction or opportunism. And ignoring this issue on the part of the Transitional Council is the first indication that the opposition does not know yet the true meaning of democracy. . . .

Nabil Fayyad, an expert in comparative religion and biblical criticism, is a Syrian intellectual who is an outspoken critic of the Syrian regime. He has been arrested and detained by the Syrian authorities in the past. The original Arabic note by Fayyad was first published on a Facebook page administered by Fayyad’s supporters on 29 August 2011. The English translation above was adapted from Sate Hamza’s translation published in his blog Syrian Musings on 30 August 2011….

Turkey and the Syrian Kurds by Wladimir van Wilgenburg

Nuances are needed in understanding Christian-Kurdish relations in Syria by Wladimir van Wilgenburg

Christian-Kurdish tensions emerge by Wladimir van Wilgenburg

NORTHEASTERN SYRIA: IT’S MORE THAN JUST UNHAPPY KURDS, 09DAMASCUS209:

Stone Age, Here We Come
By Syrian Prometheus* – Opinion Piece
For Syria Comment
Sept 13, 2011

Anyone who lived through the failed revolution of the 1980s, or the “incidents”, as we call them, will tell you that this current revolution still has a long way to go. Hafiz al-Assad, or “Senior”, used the iron fist for three years before he brought the people back under his firm control. It took a further seven years of severe isolation, privation, and an eventual rapprochement with the US over Iraq (Dessert Storm) before the populace began to experience a bit of relief – the economy loosened up and a measure of civic comfort returned to everyday life.

So, is this time different from the eighties? We have not even begun to reach the upper limit of civilian casualties and economic pain that this conflict will exact.

The economic costs of this revolution will be staggering. International banking institutions have already stopped accepting US dollar payments from Syrian merchants. No consideration is being given to the legitimacy and good reputation of individual merchants. It seems that banks have decided that sanctions against the Syrian government imply an embargo on private citizens as well. This is causing severe commercial dislocation as importers whose businesses are overwhelmingly denominated in US dollars scramble to pay in other currencies. By doing so, they are exposed to foreign exchange risks that they were not counting on. And these costs are only the tip of the iceberg. Merchants are being battered by the collapse in demand. They importing goods in much smaller amounts and selling under more restrictive terms that they used to. Only the most necessary staples have retained their markets. The velocity of money is slowing down to a crawl (much as happened during the financial crisis on the global stage in 2008). Reduced monetary velocity can only be offset by printing money to keep the economy primed to the same level. But, printing money is inflationary (not in a good way in this case). The next stage is likely to be stagnation. There are many bankruptcies looming. This, of course, means layoffs which will bring even less demand and will establish a vicious cycle of contraction, unemployment, and failure.

Many in Syria believe that this effort at revolution will be different from the revolt of the late 1970s and early 1980s. Conventional wisdom states that the telecommunication technology has changed the playing field, like it did in Egypt, and that the Syrian leadership must undertake a different calculus. The world is watching this time around. Yeah? So what?

Many in the opposition and the silent majority (cowards like me who yearn for a better future) observe that Syria’s isolation is much more severe than it was during Senior’s era of the eighties. That is true; Europe, the US, and much of the Arab World have declared their opposition to the Syrian regime and demand that the Assads leave power (I would like to know where to). With continued embargoes, sanctions, and economic pressures, the expectation is that the Syrian leadership will either be overcome by fear and throw down its guns, or develop a conscience when it notices that the sanctions are exacting a heavy toll on Syria’s most vulnerable citizens (Much as they did in Iraq between 1991 and 2003).

Sanctions are going to be a very interesting case study. They will provide a fascinating data base for future historians and policy wonks. Too bad that the Syrian people will pay the price with their innocent blood. In all likelihood, the regime has analyzed its odds carefully, both in terms of its monetary resources and its ability to turn up the level of pain.

It knows how much money it needs to pay for a protracted war against the population. To borrow a term from the “Godfather” movie, it is time to go to mattresses. The regime will:

• Liquidate its opponents in such a way as to provide the most horrifying abject lesson to those of us who are cowards and readily intimidated. This explains the daily tales and videos of brutish behavior.
• Wait for high-profile individuals to step out of line and make an example of them. The commercial elites are not only scared about losing their wealth and businesses that many have built up over generations of hard work, but they are scared of losing their lives.
• Wait. Then wait. And when you are done waiting, wait some more. This is a lesson that Senior probably drilled into Junior. European and US elections are coming up soon. Syria is likely to be demoted relative to other issues for US politicians.  The “Pocket Book” is the number one issue over the next two years. The number two issue is…. Not sure there is a number two issue. Back to waiting; the regime will not be concerned with the numbers of casualties. It is said that one of its leading generals has mused about the expiration of a million Syrians during these trying times and was not greatly concerned.
• Sow the seeds of regional conflict. Reestablish the PKK connections. Push Hizbullah’s buttons in Lebanon. See if Hamas can start a fracas. It is always worthwhile finding out if other existential issues can distract the people and bring them back in line.

Syria is being shaken down by a regime which acts remarkably like an organized-crime racket. To assume that it would respond to the tools of diplomacy and public opinion is naively optimistic. It is a parasitic entity; it has latched onto its host and is not likely to know that it is in trouble until the host has died.

The regime is not going to respond to the delusional premise that peaceful demonstrations work. It is probably thinking about “fish-in-a-barrel”.

One way to stop the slaughter is to let the Sunni population arm itself. the Alawites have already done so. However, in a recent post, you have pointed out several reasons as to why that will not be the case. The BRICS will not permit it – being so concerned with the rule of international law. The West does not want another Afghanistan that much closer to home.

But, here is the rub, the Syrian on the street, being shot at, wondering where his sibling or parent has been locked up, feeling angst about impending starvation, and reeling about his family’s disastrously bleak prospects will not understand why he has been forsaken. HE WILL NOT FORGIVE!

Syria is already in a state of civil war. It just happens that one side has all the weapons.

The continued poverty and the absence of the rule of “fair” law will continue to corrode the social fabric of the nation. If anyone thought that corruption and graft were widespread today, just wait. Moral standards will become so twisted in the coming year and the need for survival so strong that the Syrian social contract will metastasize into something unimaginable. Society as we know it will collapse. A radical Islamization can potentially stave off such a collapse. But, it remains to be seen what brand of conservative Islam will prevail.

Couple the significant private sector slowdown with reduced receipts from oil and tourism and you will be staring economic collapse in the face.

Personal credit cards of all Syrians are no longer being processed.

I have often wondered about places like Saddam’s Iraq, North Korea and other similar locals. How could a country survive and move forward while millions are starving? How come the people do not leave the country and see how the rest of the world works and then bring back such exotic ideas as freedom, prosperity and self determination? How come the people have not risen up to throw off the yoke of a bankrupt ideology whose only purpose is to perpetuate itself through a cult of personality?

Well, the leader does not care about the people whose lives are nothing but value-less ephemeral playthings. Really, not one iota.

The populace is either too weak, too afraid, or simply does not know better. Things are so bleak that a father is forced to decide between doing what is right and feeding his starving children. One can argue that doing the right thing is the right thing to do. A small bit of sacrifice now is all that is needed to make sure that the value of future gains for the this person’s children and his neighbors are worth the price that is being asked now. Alas, this is not a rational matter. Given the immediate cost, this person will in all likelihood sell his soul to the devil before making the necessary sacrifices.

This is the wager that the Syrian leadership is making.

How does one get off this train wreck? Damned if I know. The regime has led us down a most destructive path. The damage is done. What remains to be seen is how high the price is going to be.

Stone Age, here we come.

* Syrian Prometheus is a Syrian-American businessman.

___

News Round Up

OFAC Issues Libya, Syria General Licenses, September 12, 2011,

The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control released a set of general licenses late Friday governing transactions with entities in Libya and Syria.

Regarding Libya, OFAC authorized transactions (pdf) with subsidiaries of the Libyan National Oil Corp., except Zueitina Oil Co., “provided that such transactions do not involve the Libyan National Oil Corp. or any persons whose property and interests in property are blocked other than the authorized subsidiaries.”

Though the license doesn’t limit authorization to a specific list of subsidiaries, a number of those named in the document were placed under U.S. sanctions in March, among them Arabian Gulf Oil Co., Azzawiya Oil Refining Co. and Brega Petroleum Marketing Co.

U.S. persons doing business with the Syrian government prior to Aug. 18 have until Nov. 25 (pdf) to conduct any transactions that wind down their contracts, according to a license issued by OFAC.

Under the license, the U.S. person has to file a detailed report with OFAC within 10 days of completing the transaction that includes the date and value of the transaction.

OFAC said Friday that international organizations such as the United Nations, its specialized agencies and contractors can continue their business in Syria (pdf) and still comply with the Aug. 18 executive order sanctioning the country, provided they meet some specific conditions.

U.S. individuals living in Syria are authorized to pay day-to-day personal expenses “that are ordinarily incident and necessary to their personal maintenance within Syria” such as the purchase of personal goods, housing costs and taxes under a license issued Friday (pdf) by OFAC.

However, those day-to-day expenses cannot include paying debt on an account or institution blocked under a previous executive order; transactions involving property blocked by previous sanctions on Syria; or employment or a new business venture in Syria.

Those not named by the set of U.S. sanctions on Syria that have accounts in U.S. financial institutions can continue to operate their accounts (pdf) provided they are for a personal nature and do not involve transfers that were prohibited by previous OFAC licenses.

The Muslim Brotherhood

The Muslim Brotherhood, speaking on al-Jazeera, said that ex-V.P. Khaddam contacted them 2.5 years before he left Syria in 2005. They later broke up their alliance, the MB explained,  and dissolved the National Salvation Front because Khaddam wanted to support Fatah. The MB sided with Hamas and Gaza in 2009.

It should be added that the alliance was created in large measure to respond to the push by the Bush administration to “reform the larger Middle East.”  Once Obama came to office, the National Salvation Front seemed fated to disintegrate as Khaddam and the Muslim Brotherhood had little in common other than the desire to bring down the Assad regime. This fact is born out by the refusal of the MB and other opposition groups to cooperate with Khaddam now that a grass roots uprising has begun.

Aron Lund adds:

The breakup of the NSF seems more related to Saudi Arabia and the Hariris, Khaddam’s main sponsors. When they began to prepare for a compromise settlement over Lebanon with Bashar, in 2008-2009, Khaddam seems to have been told to stand down. It wasn’t just that there was a split with the MB, he also shuttered his satellite channel and basically went out of active politics (until 2011). As for the MB, whether they picked their course in 2009 (“suspending opposition”) for tactical reasons or because they, too, faced pressure/promises from KSA or other external actors — who knows? In any case, the official explanation, that it was all about attitudes to Gaza, doesn’t hold water at all.

Turkey: Leader of Resistance?

Today, Turkey has picked up sponsorship of the Muslim Brotherhood and is striving to replace Saudi Arabia as the MB’s main sponsor and guide. This Saudi-Turkish competition over leadership of the Syrian opposition establishes an interesting dynamic when it comes to Israel, as Turkey seems to be in the process of stealing Syria’s role, and perhaps Iran’s role  as well, as leader of the resistance. It is maneuvering itself in this direction with growing indignation over Israel’s denial of Palestinian rights and threats to send its navy to protect boats headed for Gaza.

Rather than fall into line behind Saudi Arabia, Israel and the US on Syria and Iran, Turkey is finessing Washington. It has condemned Syria’s authoritarianism and military suppression of dissent, but it is not allowing its deteriorating relations with Syria and Iran to force it into patching up its damaged relationship with Israel. This is what most of us believed would happen. We thought that Turkey would close ranks with Washington and Tel Aviv in order to take on Syria.

Being anti-Israel and pro-Palestinian must has greater resonance with Turks than being anti-Assad and pro-Syria revolution. Erdoghan seems to be responding to popular sentiment in the same way that Obama does in supporting Israel and its anti-Palestinian policies.

Haytham Khoury reports that the Syrian opposition is deeply divided over how to construct an“National Council”. His article entitled “المجلس الوطني الإنتقالي بين الإنقلابات ومضادتها” explains

The Arab Counterrevolution by Hussein Agha and Robert Malley | The New York Review of Books

The Arab uprising that started in Tunisia and Egypt reached its climax on February 11, the day President Hosni Mubarak was forced to step down. It was peaceful, homegrown, spontaneous, and seemingly unified. Lenin’s theory was turned on its head. The Russian leader postulated that a victorious revol…

From all corners of the Arab world, Islamists of various tendencies are coming in from the cold. Virtually everywhere they are the largest single group as well as the best organized. In Egypt and Tunisia, where they had been alternatively—and sometimes concurrently—tolerated and repressed, they are full-fledged political actors. In Libya, where they had been suppressed, they joined and played a major part in the rebellion. In Syria, where they had been massacred, they are a principal component of the protest movement…..

The Islamists are on a mission to reassure. They might play down controversial religious aspects of their project, with emphasis less on Islamic law than on good governance and the fight against corruption, a free-market economy and a pluralistic political system that guarantees human and gender rights. They will argue for a more assertive and independent foreign policy, but might at the same time strive for good relations with the West. They will be skeptical about peace agreements with Israel but they will neither abrogate them nor push for open hostility to the Jewish state. The model they will hold out will be closer to Erdogan’s Turkey than to the ayatollahs’ Iran or the Taliban’s Afghanistan though, since they lack Turkey’s political culture and institutions, the model they eventually build will be their own.

Quietly, the Islamists might present themselves as the West’s most effective allies against its most dangerous foes: armed jihadists, whom they have the religious legitimacy to contain and, if necessary, cripple; and Iran,….The thorniest challenge to the traditional middle-of-the-road Islamists will come from the Salafists.

Revolutions devour their children. The spoils go to the resolute, the patient, who know what they are pursuing and how to achieve it. Revolutions almost invariably are short-lived affairs, bursts of energy that destroy much on their pathway, including the people and ideas that inspired them. So it is with the Arab uprising. It will bring about radical changes. It will empower new forces and marginalize others. But the young activists who first rush onto the streets tend to lose out in the skirmishes that follow. Members of the general public might be grateful for what they have done. They often admire them and hold them in high esteem. But they do not feel they are part of them. The usual condition of a revolutionary is to be tossed aside.

The Arab world’s immediate future will very likely unfold in a complex tussle between the army, remnants of old regimes, and the Islamists, all of them with roots, resources, as well as the ability and willpower to shape events. Regional parties will have influence and international powers will not refrain from involvement. There are many possible outcomes—from restoration of the old order to military takeover, from unruly fragmentation and civil war to creeping Islamization. But the result that many outsiders had hoped for—a victory by the original protesters—is almost certainly foreclosed….

Things are not as they seem. The sound and fury of revolutionary moments can dull the senses and obscure the more ruthless struggles going on in the shadows.

Emad Moustafa interview with NPR

Syrian dissidents to announce members of “national council”

Syrian dissidents on Thursday will present the list of members of a “National Council” to coordinate their struggle against the regime of Bashar al-Assad, their spokesperson Basma Qadmani said Monday.

“The composition of the council will be announced this Thursday. Meanwhile, consultations [with dissident groups] are still ongoing,” Qadmani said during a press conference in Istanbul.

Syrian opponents declared the establishment of a “National Council” in Istanbul on August 23, after four days of discussions.

The board “represents all major forces [of Syrian dissidents]: political parties, independent personalities who are symbols of the Syrian opposition” and most of them live in Syria, Qadmani told AFP.

“Once it is announced, the council will remain open to all remaining opposition forces,” Qadmani said, adding that the aim of the council is not to eliminate other groups but to offer a “national framework” for the whole opposition.

Qadmani, a political activist based in Paris, said the members of the council were selected by consensus according to their “personal qualifications” from a list of 700 names representing a wide range of opposition forces.

Nickolas Van Dam on Syria on The World Today

Assad Can stay in power for quite a long time….

3 prominent Alawi clerics speak out against Assad’s regime: – Al-Arabiya

“بريئون من الأعمال الوحشية التي يقوم بها أعوان بشار من كل الطوائف”

أصدر ثلاثة من كبار مشايخ الطائفة العلوية في مدينة حمص بياناً أعلنوا فيه براءتهم من “الأعمال الوحشية” التي يقوم بها النظام السوري بحق المحتجين، ومؤكدين في الوقت نفسه أن نظام الأسد لم ولن يمثل طائفتهم الشريفة في أي حال من الأحوال”.

وأوضح البيان الموقع بأسماء المشايخ: مهيب نيصافي، ياسين حسين، موسى منصور: “نعلن براءتنا من هذه الأعمال الوحشية التي يقوم بها بشار الأسد وأعوانه من الذين ينتمون إلى كل الطوائف – ونتحمل مسؤولية ما نقوله”.

من كبار مشايخ الطائفة العلوية بحمص: نظام الأسد يسعى للفتنة الطائفية

Kremlin firmly opposes UN sanctions on Syria, Medvedev added that Moscow believes there is no need to introduce new U.N. sanctions against Syria in addition to the U.S. and the EU sanctions already in place.

Syrian assets frozen by Swiss reach 45 mn francs, 2011-09-12 16:42:39.381 GMT

Sept. 12 (PTI) — The amount of Syrian assets frozen by Switzerland has now reached 45 million francs (37.3 million euros, USD 51 million), Bern said today. “This is a total for all sanctions against Syria, whether they be individuals or companies” and is up from 27 million francs in mid-August, a spokeswoman for the economy ministry told AFP.

The Syrian Social Nationalists: In the Hurricane of Revolt – al-Akhbar

Syria offers nuclear cooperation, IAEA says – 09/12/2011 19:06

VIENNA – Syria has offered to cooperate with a UN nuclear watchdog probe into a suspected reactor site after years of stonewalling, and a meeting on the issue has been proposed for October, the Vienna-based agency’s head said on Monday.

Iranian president Encourages Assad to Resolve His Social Problems Peacefully..

Syria: Testing Time – 07.09.2011 – Monthly Review
Syria remains relatively calm as efforts to destabilise its government through orchestrated attacks by rebels fail.
John Cherian, who was recently in Damascus and Hama, is Associate Editor of Frontline in India.

Life in the Syrian capital, Damascus, seems to be continuing as normal. The streets and the mosques are crowded after the devout break their Ramazan fast in the evening. The security presence is minimal. In fact, there are more armed police and paramilitary men in central Delhi than in the heart of Damascus. This does not mean that all of Syria has suddenly become calm. Although the two biggest cities, Damascus and Aleppo, have not witnessed any major anti-government demonstrations or violence so far, smaller cities such as Homs, Jisr al-Shughour and Deraa continue to be rocked by intermittent protests and violence.

Arab League says Syria reform deal agreed - 11 September 2011

Nabil el-Araby, the head of the Arab League, says he has reached an “agreement on reforms” in Syria during talks with President Bashar al-Assad.

El-Araby met Assad and other senior officials in Damascus on Saturday.

“We have reached agreement on steps to carry out the reforms, [and] the elements will be submitted to the council of the Arab League,” which meets in Cairo on Monday, El-Araby said after the meeting.

El-Araby told journalists in Egypt that he had urged Assad to “speed up reform plans through a timetable that will make every Syrian citizen feel that he has moved to a new stage”.

The state-run Syrian news agency SANA said el-Araby had “affirmed the Arab League’s rejection of all forms of foreign interference in Syrian internal affairs” and that the two leaders had agreed on “a number of practical steps for speeding up the reform process in Syria”.

According to information leaked to the media earlier this week about el-Araby’s visit, he was to call for the withdrawal of troops and tanks from Syrian cities and towns and to push for elections to be held within three years.

Revlon Writes:

Activists, on the ground and in exile have moral obligation to put their differences aside and unite to form a representative oppositional Council.

Their first task should be to garner reconnaissance and logistical support for the FOM and FSA.

Tomorrow, 57 defected army personel, including 17 officers are reported to await execution tomorrow, in addition to those that have already been executed at Mazzeh military airport.

Ugarit News | أوغاريت الإخبارية

أوغاريت || داريا ريف دمشق :: الآن انتشار للجيش في المدينة والأمن يطلق الرصاص على أي شخص يحضر للتشييع وهناك انشقاق في صفوف الجيش واطلاق النار ما بين الأمن والمنشقين وهناك أنباء عن اصابات

وأحد المنشقين أورد أنه غداً يوم الأحد سوف يتم اعدام 57 عسكري منهم 17 ضابط انشقوا في الايام السابقة في مطار المزة العسكري , ويقول ايضاً هناك الكثير من الشهداء في مطار المزة تم اعدامهم خلال اأيام الماضية والاعدام كان باشكال فردي من قبل الشبيحة في المطار

Globe Mail [Reg]: Youth unemployment the kindling that fuels unrest, 2011-09-12

What is the most dangerous force in the world? Answers that might come to mind are AL-Qaeda-inspired terrorism, or the threat posed by Iranian and North Korean nuclear weapons. These are indeed dangerous, but the most pervasive threat is the large …

Egypt police raid Al Jazeera office as sense of crisis grows,  Sunday, 09.11.2011

Deputy Observor of the Syrian MB: The time for Dialogue with the regime has passed. Our political vision for New Syria was finalized in 2004 and falls in 130 page document.!
By Muhammad Daf3allah, 2011/09/12

نائب مراقب الإخوان في سوريا لـ “الشرق”:الحوار مع النظام انتهى ومشروعنا السياسي جاهز

محمد دفع الله:الشرق

أكد محمد فاروق طيفور نائب المراقب العام للاخوان المسلمين في سوريا ان الاخوان لديهم مشروع سياسي جاهز لسوريا الجديدة بعد القضاء على نظام الاسد.

واشار في حوار مع الشرق الى ان هذا المشروع تم انجازه منذ عام 2004 ويسمى بالمشروع السياسي لسوريا المستقبل ويتكون من 130 صفحة يضمن رؤية واضحة للدولة الجديدة التي يريدها السوريون وهي دولة مدنية ديمقراطية تعددية تتداول فيها السلطة وتحتكم الى صناديق الاقتراع ويرضى الجميع بما تتمخض عنه الانتخابات.

وقال: لا نطمح في تشكيل الاكثرية او تسلم الحكم وصناديق الاقتراع هي الفيصل بيننا وبين القوى السياسية الاخرى.

وشدد على ان وقت الحوار مع النظام قد انتهى بعد أن سالت الدماء وأزهقت الأرواح.. ولفت الى الاخوان في سوريا يتشارون مع الاخوان في مصر من أجل الوقوف بجانبهم في صراعهم مع نظام الأسد.. وقال ان السوريين يأملون في موقف حاسم من الجامعة العربية لصالح ثورتهم..

وذكر أن الاخوان في سوريا ربما يشكلون حزبا سياسيا عقب نظام بشار الاسد اذا اقتضى الحال، مبينا ان التخوف من وصول الاخوان الى الحكم سببه التداعيات التي نجمت عن النظام العقائدي في ايران

More …..

Free Officers’ Army asks for international protection and Turkish support to establish a Syrian Benghazi in Jabal Az-Zawiya,  2011/09/1