Christopher C. Hull. "Elevating Winners or Undercutting Moderates: Quantifying Iowa’s Ideological Impact on the Presidential Nomination Process." Annual Meeting. Chicago, Ill.: American Political Science Association, 2007.
This paper addresses empirically whether electability or ideology dominates Iowa’s Caucus, using statistical models based on an original 1976-2004 dataset of candidates to contest Iowa, containing national and state polling data, FEC fundraising information, and ideological and electability measures drawn from activist surveys. It finds that while ideology plays an undeniable role in determining caucus outcomes, electability also factors heavily into the state’s results, suggesting that “strategic” voting has real-world effects in Iowa – and that 2008 candidates moving to the Right or Left may find that line of attack less rewarding than they might expect.
More about this publication
