Chrfistopher C. Hull. "The Effects of Moving Up Western States’ Nomination Contests: A Statistical Estimation of Ad Revenue Gains and Worsened Negativism on TV." Symposium on The Western States Primary Election. Salt Lake City, Utah: Western Policy Research Network, 2006.
Western states considering moving their nomination contests earlier in the 2008 presidential selection process might experience more candidate attention – and tougher races as a result. This paper attempts to quantify both dynamics, as measured by television spending on one hand and ad negativity on the other, relying on a 53,000-case database of television advertisements from the U.S. 2000 presidential nomination process. The study finds that for each day earlier in the process a state’s contest is held, average ad revenue per media market increases 4.5%, but the likelihood a given ad run in the state would be negative likewise increases 31.6%. The paper concludes that short of other incentives such as parties allocating additional delegates to later contests, Western states would likely decide that the upside of heightened attention outweighed the downside of sharper attacks.
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