SHOWDOWN IN THE MIDDLE EAST

To a substantial degree, the Arab Spring has continued a long process of pushing foreign powers out, and reclaiming the region – both from foreign powers, and from the autocrats which worked the alliances to their advantage – for its inhabitants. But this has not left a vacuum. Instead, the politics of the region is coming to be structured increasingly by the regional powers. Chief among these are Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

The US is losing out, as it watches its influence in the region diminish, and its ally in Israel being isolated. It is pulling out of Iraq, and its retreat from the region will probably accelerate as the budget cuts in Washington put a further crimp on its diplomatic and aid resources. Washington will have to rely on other allies, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, to advance its interests. But both of these countries have their own agendas, and will not merely do the US’s bidding.

Iran, whose own 1979 revolution sought to throw out foreign influence, had expected the Arab Spring would usher in governments more friendly to itself. On the face of it, the optimism was reasonable enough. It was always understood that in the Arab world, democracy would increase the influence of political Islam, which has been repressed by the region’s autocrats. One could assume democratic governments would then look more kindly on Iran’s theocracy.

The problem with this reasoning was that, first, it overlooked the depth of differences, and sometimes outright hostility, between Iran’s Shi’ite Islam, and the Sunni variety that dominates most of the Arab world. Equally, it overlooks the profound cultural and historical hostility between the Arab peoples on one hand, and the Persians who dominate Iran on the other – not to mention the tensions between Iran’s Persians and its own, substantial minorities. Moreover, the uprising against Syria’s government, one of Iran’s few friends in the region, bodes ill for Iranian influence. On balance, Iran probably won’t come out ahead from the Arab Spring.

Saudi Arabia, with its vast oil wealth and, home as it is to some of Islam’s holiest sites, moral leadership in much of the Muslim world, is eager to serve as a counterweight to Iran. It will throw its largesse around and, where necessary, intervene directly (as it has done in Bahrain) to quell uprisings which threaten its interests. Saudi Arabia might gain in influence. But given the divisions within the Saudi ruling family, not to mention the fact that it is yet another autocratic regime, it is a fragile foundation upon which to found future American interests.

The biggest winner of all, as far as foreign policy is concerned, appears to be Turkey. A secular country run by an Islamic party, Turkey sees itself as the perfect model for the region’s newly democratic regimes. Coming off several years of growth, with a confident and assertive government, Turkey has been able to appeal to democrats, while also being seen by elites as a safe party. Having once built close ties with Syria and Israel, Turkey has lately turned on both governments, further burnishing its regional credentials.

Turkey is not without baggage in the region, though. As the heart of the former Ottoman Empire, which itself incurred much resentment in the Arab world, it cannot appear too belligerent. But longer term, it has reason to feel confident about the future. Whereas Iran is struggling with political dissent, a divided ruling class and a sluggish economy, Turkey’s future looks comparatively bright.

No wonder it seems to be enjoying the Arab Spring so much.

John Rapley is a research associate at the International Growth Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and rapley.john@gmail.com.

Tags: Turkey,Islamic,Syria,Israel