Abdul Moez Ibrahim, the head of the Egyptian supreme election committee, told a news conference on Friday that voter turnout for the first round of elections was 62 percent, and added “it is the highest voter turnout since the pharaohs.” However, as the results were announced, many candidates face a runoff elections as they did not reach the required 50 percent to win a seat. Preliminary results show Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood gaining the most votes, and on Saturday Brotherhood leaders called on their rival to accept the polls outcome. ”We call upon everyone, and all those who associate themselves with democracy, to respect the will of the people and accept their choice,” stated Brotherhood leaders.

The deputy head of the Brotherhood’s new political party, Essam el-Erian noted in an interview that the Brotherhood would not impose Islamic values on Egypt, saying “we represent a moderate and fair party…we want to apply the basics of Shariah law in a fair way that respects human rights and personal rights.” Brotherhood political leaders have not stated that they would form a coalition with the Salafis, who came in second in the polls, despite many rumors, as the Salafis present “a challenge to the Muslim Brotherhood, in part by plunging it into a polarizing Islamist-against-Islamist debate over the application of Islamic law in Egypt’s promised democracy, a debate the Brotherhood had worked hard to avoid.”

However, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak expressed concern over the results of the elections, saying the gains by Islamist parties are “very, very disturbing.” U.S. State Department Spokesperson Mark Toner found the elections encouraging, stating that “we find that encouraging that there’s politics going on there, that there’s these kinds of discussions are taking place. Again, it’s very, very early. We don’t – we just have preliminary results. There’s a lot of elections that need to still be carried out, but we’re off to a very positive start.”

Fighting between forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad and rebels in northern Syria has intensified over the past month, as at least 23 people were killed on Saturday. At least 15 are reported dead in the northwestern province of Idlib, where fighting lasted for three hours, as the The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said “seven members of the security forces were killed, along with five army defectors.” The fighting comes a day after the U.N. urged the international community to protect Syrian civilians and “condemned Syria for “gross and systematic” violations by its forces, including executions and the imprisonment of some 14,000 people.”

U.S. Vice President Joe Biden warned that the events in Syria could ignite regional instability, and stated “We stand with Turkey and a growing chorus of nations in calling for President Assad to step aside.” Biden also called on Turkey to implement sanctions on Syria, with State Department Spokesperson Mark Toner adding “our goal and the goal of these sanctions, rather, is to apply pressure directly on Asad’s regime, on their ability to purchase new arms to use against the opposition.” However, some Syrians are expressing concern over the sanctions as they are hurting the declining economy, with one Syrian noting “this is a way to make us starve to punish the president.”

On Monday, the SETA Foundation hosted a discussion panel on Syria’s future and the potential role of Turkey in the conflict going forward. The panel discussion began with opening remarks by the moderator and panelists, followed by a question and answer session. Moderating the discussion panel was Kilic Kanat, non-resident fellow at the SETA Foundation. Panelists included, Helena Cobban, veteran journalist and Erol Cebeci, Exeutive Director of the SETA Foundation, Washington DC.

For full event notes, continue reading. Or, click here for the PDF.

Read more…

As Bahrain’s Interior Ministry stated that Mr. John Timoney, the former Miami Police Chief, will lead training programs for Bahraini security forces, the Bahraini Youth Society for Human Rights expressed concern over the appointment due to Timoney’s past human rights violations. He is known for the mishandling of the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA) Protests in 2003. Tens of thousands of demonstrators were met with “police harassment, provocation, and brutality. More than 100 protesters were treated for injuries, 12 were hospitalized and an estimated 250 were arrested.”

As the Bahraini security forces have been accused of committing human rights abuses, as the Bahraini government brought in Timoney to implement a new code of conduct when dealing with demonstrators. “Among his many accomplishments were the successful reduction of crime and the implementation of proper practices for the use of force,” said a statement from Bahrain’s governmen

On Thursday, the Woodrow Wilson Center hosted an event entitled “The Price of Freedom and Democracy: Defiant Bahrainis and the Arab Spring.” The event honored Nabeel Rajab, the president of the Bahrain Center for Human Rights, with the Ion Ratiu Democracy Award. The panel featured Mr. Rajab, Wafa Ali, a Bahraini journalist and public policy scholar at the Wilson Center, Carl Gershman, the president of the National Endowment for Democracy, and Tom Malinowski, the Washington director of Human Rights Watch. Jane Harman, the president of the Wilson Center, gave opening remarks, and Christian Ostermann, the Wilson Center’s European Studies director, moderated the event.

For full event notes, continue reading. Or, click here for the PDF.  Read more…

Speaking at a special session of the U.N. Human Rights Council, U.N. High Commissioner Navi Pillay stated that Syria faces the prospect of “full-fledged civil war” due to the unrelenting repression by the Assad regime’s security forces unless the violence was halted immediately. Pillay also noted reports of “increased armed attacks by the opposition forces, including the so-called Free Syrian Army, against the Syrian military and security apparatus.” Pillay further stressed that “in light of the manifest failure of the Syrian authorities to protect their citizens, the international community needs to take urgent and effective measures to protect the Syrian people.”

It was also reported yesterday that the head of the Free Syria Army, Col. Riyad Assad had agreed to scale down attacks against the security forces and better coordinate with the SNC after a high-level meeting took place between the colonel and Burhan Ghalioum, president of the SNC. During Monday’s meeting the “Free Syrian Army agreed it would not initiate assaults but would continue to ‘protect and defend civilians,”‘ stated FSA Spokesman Maher Nuaimi.

In light of evidence that the Assad regime is using its diplomatic service across the world to  mount “campaigns of harassment and threats against expatriate dissidents protesting outside Syrian embassies,” French Interior Minister Claude Gueant announced that extra measures were being taken to protect Syrian opposition members and activists within France: “Given the troubles in Syria, we have seen a certain number of threats on Syrian opponents [...] Measures to protect them have been taken.” Violence inside Syria continued as clashes took place across the country and killed at least four people. The official U.N. death toll has been revised to 4,000 dead since the start of the uprising, and November saw the highest death toll so far with an estimated 950 people killed.

In an interview with the BBC Afrique, Moncef Marzouki, a human rights activist from the centre-left secular Congress for the Republic party and a presidential favorite, said Tunisia “will not accept any kind of dictatorship, this country will be a real democracy.” He also mentioned that there are discussions about power-sharing agreements among government officials. Meanwhile, the Tunisian central bank expressed concerns over Tunisia’s economy, stressing the risks of the “aggravation of the crisis” and saying that “the room for maneuver in terms of monetary policy has become very limited.”

Additionally, former French Ambassador to Tunisia Yves Aubin De La Messuzière revealed that he warned the French government about the “possible collapse of Ben Ali’s regime.” The former diplomat said that “since the beginning of the last decade, I predicted the return of Islamists and Ennahda, I knew groups of religious people were organizing outside of mosques and they were talking about the oppression they were exposed to at the time.”

Abdelilah Benkirane, Morocco’s new PM, has stated, ”There will be no change to the kingdom’s long-standing alliances with Western powers.” The prime minister iterated that it is “unthinkable” to reconsider Morocco’s historic alliances with the West, which are based on mutual interests, and he conveyed that relationships with France, Spain, Britain and the United States will not change. Benkirane also expressed shock at the actions of the Syrian government: ”What’s happening in Syria today goes beyond all logic of repression, it goes beyond imagination.” He added that the violence against Syrians “is making [Moroccans] suffer.”

An article in The Economist contends, “It is not yet clear how far the king will yield power to the people,” and Ahmed Charai asserts that “much of the American media has presented a misleadingly bleak picture of voter apathy, dismissed Morocco’s constitutional reforms, and exaggerated the radicalism of the main Islamist party, adding that Morocco’s democratization experiment contains potential lessons for other countries in the region and should be considered in this light by the media as well as the Obama administration.”

Jordan’s new Prime Minister Awn Khasawneh won a vote of confidence from parliament Thursday following days of discussion regarding his government and policies. The vote tallied “89-25, with three abstentions and two MPs absent from the 120-seat lower house of parliament.” Members of parliament “urged Khasawneh’s government meet public demands for reform as well as taking tougher action against corruption,” to which Khasawneh pledged, “No one is above the law.”

Meanwhile, opposition actors staged a protest Friday “to demand reforms.” Sources reported that despite the vote of confidence from parliament, “thousands” of Jordanians demonstrated against corruption.

As’ad AbuKhalil, writing for Alakhbar English, argues that the success of Islamist political parties is “the dominant story,” but the coverage is not mentioning that these parties “have been organized for decades while some leftists and liberals have just started, … have been benefiting from Gulf money and have utilized that external funding effectively,” and “that they have been striking deals under the table with the US and European governments to reassure them not only regarding the pro-capitalist (neoliberal) policies that they would pursue, but also regarding not antagonizing Israel.”

The author asserts that “if [Islamist parties] continue to postpone their agenda, their rank-and-file will accuse them of abandoning their principles, and if they push ahead with their agendas, they will alienate voters and also alienate their new friends and sponsors in Western capitals.” Additionally, AbuKhalil contends, “The Islamists are in a bind. The demise is rather inevitable. They can’t fulfill their promises and win. They have been striking deals with GCC countries and Western powers in contradiction with their own ideology and earlier promises.”

Houda Nonoo, Bahrain’s Ambassador to the United States, welcomed the findings of the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry (BICI) released at the end of November. In a statement Nonoo said, “Bahrain‘s government is committed to reform, and to implementing progressive policies that will help achieve reconciliation for all Bahrainis. We are committed to that path because the future of Bahrain and its people relies on a meaningful unification strategy.” She added, “The truth of the events that transpired in our country was not easy to hear. But these truths are now Bahrain’s reality, and the government has accepted these truths as the foundation from which our reform process will move ahead.”

Additionally, Nonoo mentioned that a commission established by Bahrain’s king will consist of twenty members representing “a broad cross-section of Bahraini society and will conclude its work by the end of February 2012.”

Meanwhile, according to a press release by Bahrain’s Ministry of Information, John Timoney, a former police chief of Miami, Florida, has been chosen to lead training programs for the Gulf kingdom’s forces, which the Associated Press called “part of reforms after an independent report detailed abuses against pro-reform protesters.”

The European Union approved tighter sanctions “against Syria’s energy and financial sectors in response to President Bashar al-Assad’s crackdown on dissidents,” diplomats said. In a joint statement by foreign ministers ”the EU reiterates its condemnation in the strongest terms of the brutal crackdown by the Syrian government which risks taking Syria down a very dangerous path of violence, sectarian clashes and militarization.”  The EU also added “23 more individuals and companies to the list of those under sanction in Syria.” Syria’s membership in the Mediterranean Union, a 2008 initiative of French President Nicolas Sarkozy was also suspended.

Amnesty International released a report criticizing a draft law in Saudi Arabia that would allow “peaceful acts of dissent” to be prosecuted as “terrorist crime.” The report, entitled Saudi Arabia: Repression in the Name of Security, writes that “hundreds of people have been arrested for demonstrating, while the government has drafted an anti-terror law that would effectively criminalize dissent as a ‘terrorist crime’ and further strip away rights from those accused of such offences.” AlJazeera reports, “Amnesty International criticised what it called Saud Arabia’s ‘vague and broad’ definitions of terrorism, ranging from ‘destabilising society’ to ‘harming the reputation of the state.’” The report reads, “This opaqueness could be exploited to charge peaceful meetings of a group of people who make political demands or even engage in academic discussions with a ‘terrorist crime’ under this draft law.” The report also condemns Saudi Arabia for a general policy of repression in response to pro-reform protests.

Peter Apps, political risk correspondent for Reuters, argues that a long and bloody civil war in Syria threatens regional stability and risks “growing antagonism between the world’s great powers.” After months of peaceful demonstrations, an increasing number of attacks on forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad could mark the beginning of a civil war. Many analysts believe that Iran has been supplying Syrian forces with weapons, and now some contend that the opposition is receiving weapons from abroad, as Apps states, this “risks further fuelling the growing regional confrontation between Tehran and its local enemies, particularly the Gulf states and emerging heavyweight Turkey.”

Jeffery White of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy contends that Free Syrian Army (FSA)  ”appears to be gaining in strength and effectiveness, and Damascus now faces both peaceful and armed resistance. So far, the FSA has proven resilient in the face of regime measures to suppress it.” White asserts that as pressure rises on the government to change, and civilians death rise, there will be more defections which will escalate the fighting.

Writing for Fair Observer, Alexander Innes contends that the $53 million arms sale to Bahrain is “designed to check Iranian regional influence but would in fact do the opposite,” adding that “it is in the American national interest to not make this sale.”  Innes suggests “adding more lethal missiles, especially armored vehicles, to the Bahraini arsenal, threatens to push protesters into more radical positions, perhaps even choosing to court Iranian support…” The author suggests that the arms sale would send the wrong message to pro-reform demonstrators, because “protesters in Bahrain have seen and heard U.S. support for other uprisings in the region, contrasted with the lack of support by senior U.S. officials for the movement in Bahrain.”

Additionally, the broad influence of the U.S. throughout the Gulf, as well as strong alliances with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, will serve U.S. interests far better than the weapons sale, “which will likely achieve nothing militarily, but will further alienate protesting Bahrainis and entirely discredit American efforts at democracy promotion,” Innes asserts. Finally, the author states: “were the U.S. to complete this sale, the Government of Bahrain would be incrementally better armed, but would find itself facing a more determined and externally supported internal opposition.”

Abdelilah Benkirane, the secretary general of the Justice and Development Party (PJD), has been named Morocco’s new prime minister with the task of forming a coalition government. King Mohammed VI made the announcement due to new laws that require the monarch to choose a prime minister from the party which won the highest number of seats in the Parliament. Prior to this appointment, the PJD had never actively participated in the Moroccan government. ”I ask the Almighty to help me carry out the noble mission with which the King has entrusted me in the general interest, and to rise to the oath that I took today before His Majesty,” Benkirane said.

Tunisia state news is reporting that the country’s state of emergency has been extended through the end of the year: “Interim President Fouad Mebazza signed the decree extending the state of emergency for the fourth time since it was first enacted” in January. The report did not give an explanation for the extension.

Hundreds of Tunisian police officers protested in Tunis, claiming that the new government has used them as scapegoats. The Associated Press reports that “police on Monday said the 150 members of the security forces under arrest were not receiving fair trials. Some urged an investigation into the deaths of demonstrators, hinting that the army might have been involved in those killings during the monthlong uprising.”

Meanwhile, the first military trial for former President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and 22 of his aides began Monday in the city of Kef, and it has been adjourned until December 12. The accused are on trial for “the fatal shootings of 22 demonstrators in the towns of Thala and Kasserine during the uprising. The charges carry a death penalty. Defendants include two former interior ministers, the director of security and the head of special security brigades. Tunisia’s state news agency reported all have denied issuing instructions to open fire on protesters.”

As Egyptians flocked to the polls on Tuesday, the Freedom and Justice Party, the Muslim Brotherhood’s affiliate, claimed the lead in the first stage of parliamentary elections. State television reported that the peaceful polls had a high voter turnout, and Essam el-Erian, leader of the Freedom and Justice Party, said “Millions of Egyptians voted because they wanted a strong, democratic Parliament.” However, the results of the first round of elections will be announced Thursday, a day later than planned, as the a High Elections Commission member stated “there is some delay as we have not been able to finish counting in some areas, including Cairo.” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton congratulated Egypt “for a peaceful, successful start to their election process,” and stressed the importance of “Egypt’s transition to democracy continuing in a just, transparent and inclusive manner.”

An analysis by Mohamed El Dahshan in Foreign Policy Magazine argues that despite the ruling general’s claim that the ballot has been a success, “Egypt’s elections weren’t supposed to be this way.” He adds, “These elections weren’t supposed to occur as we suffer under the military boot,” and “shouldn’t take place with widespread violence and human rights violations.” Dahshan suggests, “These were not the elections we dreamed of, or for which we fought, bled, and lost hundreds of noble souls for.”

The Project on Middle East Political Science released a report on the election season in the Arab world, stating that the case for elections in Egypt is strong, as “the only way to have a transition to democracy is to start making a transition to democracy,” although the elections would ” take place in the absence of a constitution, leaving the powers and role of the new elected body unclear.” Eric Trager, of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, noted that  Egypt’s “second revolution has failed because, since a ceasefire went into effect on November 24, it has been remarkably contained” as the military learned a major lesson from the first revolution: “the first step to ending a revolt is preventing it from disrupting the lives of ordinary people.”

Today Turkey’s Foreign Minister announced that Turkey would “suspend all financial dealings with Syria and freeze the assets of Bashar al-Assad‘s government as part of sanctions against its former ally.” The sanctions are designed to target the Syrian leadership and ”all those responsible for violence against civilians, and businesses close to President Assad, were banned from travelling to Turkey, and their assets there would be frozen.”

Stating that the Assad Regime “had come to the end of the road” and that “Syria has squandered the last chance that it was given.” Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu also vowed to “block the delivery of all weapons and military equipment to Syria.” Davutoglu stressed that while Turkey was against military intervention “if the oppression continues, Turkey is ready for any scenario.”  Turkey, which shares a 900km border with Syria “fears an exodus of Syrians if violence worsens, and border states might have to create a buffer zone to cope with masses of refugees.” It is expected that considering Turkey’s place as a major trading partner of Syria, “the sudden loss of Turkish business will be a heavy blow to the business sector, particularly in the larger cities and in the northern part of Syria, along the Turkish border.”

Herman Cain has released his “Vision for Foreign Policy and National Security,” detailing his assessment of “key country relations” throughout the globe. He comments on several Middle Eastern countries, including Libya, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Egypt, Syria, and Yemen. Calling Yemen a “strategic partner,” Cain criticizes Obama for “taking the path of least resistance in the face of Al Qaeda-backed protesters” by seeking Saleh’s resignation, and he adds, “We should be working with President Saleh and potential successors to engineer a soft-landing for this pro-U.S. partner.”

Egypt is labeled a “danger and opportunity,” and Cain refers to former President Hosni Mubarak as “a friend” who was “shoved out by Arab Spring protests.” Regarding Libya, Cain believes there is “clarity needed,” asserting that the “Libyan rebellion-turned-government has been aided by Al Qaeda, and it is dominated by Islamists that have not been friendly to U.S. interests.”

Cain names Iran as an “adversary regime,” saying, “Unlike President Obama, Mr. Cain will not turn a blind eye toward the Iranian people who are risking their lives in their struggle for freedom and democracy.” He also called Syria an adversary regime, stating “we should work with our allies to isolate Syria economically with sanctions directed toward blocking the regime’s access to international financial markets and investment in its oil and gas industry.”