Predictions are always problematic – there’s that pesky notion of “free will,” [.pdf] not to mention the stubborn refusal of reality to conform to our preconceptions. Yet they are obligatory for a columnist this time of year, and so what I’m going to do is assign a probability to each “prediction.”
1) War with Iran – One could argue we are already at war with Iran, what with US support for the terrorist Jundallah – a Sunni extremist group with links to al-Qaeda – which is attacking Iranian civilians and wreaking havoc in Iranian Baluchistan. Also, the sanctions we have imposed on Iran are, in themselves, acts of war – and we’ve seen how Iran is responding with threats to block the Strait of Hormuz, which a great deal of the world’s oil must pass through. The odds of a minor incident in this volatile region blowing up into a major confrontation are quite high. Adding fuel to the fire: continuing US efforts to destabilize Syria, an Iranian ally, could prove to be the tripwire that drags us into war with Tehran. Moves by Hezbollah to shore up the Syrian Ba’athists could bring in Israel – and ultimately the US.
In line with my theory of “libertarian realism” – the idea that domestic political considerations determine a nation’s actions on the international stage – I’ll note that the number one force pushing for war with Iran is the indefatigable Israel lobby, which has been beating the war drums for years now and has the full support of both parties in Congress. Sure, the American people don’t want war – but since when have they had any say in our foreign policy?
Probability: 65%
2) Deteriorating relations with Russia – This isn’t really a prediction, it’s a reality. The recent Russian election brought the downgrading of Russo-American relations to the fore, but the fact is that this has been the case ever since Russian strongman Vladimir Putin rose from the ashes of the Soviet collapse and imposed some semblance of order on a nation in the midst of a meltdown. American antipathy to Russia is largely a matter of habit – after half a century of the cold war, fear of the Russians is embedded in the consciousness of the American elites – but much of it has to do with distrust of any foreign leader who seems too strong for our own good. The Americans thought they could gobble up the pieces of the shattered Soviet empire with little or no trouble, and were surprised when Putin pulled his country out of the trash bin of history and started challenging the American would-be hegemon. While war is not an option, internal subversion most certainly is, and if any enterprising journalist wants to trace the financial links between the US government and the various Russian “dissidents” at the head of the “democratic” opposition, he or she will uncover a thriving industry.
Probability: 99%
3) The “Arab Spring” comes to the Kingdom – The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, that is. We have already seen some of this in the Eastern, predominantly Shi’ite provinces, but the coming rebellion promises to be broader. There is simply no way for the Kingdom to block the influx of democratic-secular ideas flooding into the region, and the regime’s vaunted economic invulnerability is increasingly threatened by the global downturn. The emirates and sheikdoms of the Gulf have already been hit with protests, and what is happening in Bahrain may provide, in miniature, a look into the Kingdom’s future.
Probability: 50%
4) The “Arab Spring” comes to Jordan, Morocco, and even Israel – Jordan and Morocco, two pro-US Arab states ruled by monarchs both capricious and servile, are due for large-scale turmoil. The same worldwide economic downturn, combined with complaints of corruption, that brought down the pro-American dictator of Tunisia threatens the Moroccan monarchy, which has only made cosmetic changes in an attempt to head off an open rebellion. In Jordan, the Muslim Brotherhood is out in the streets protesting police brutality – which they call “official terrorism” – and seeking to duplicate their success in Egypt. By the end of 2012, the era of kings may be nearly over in the Middle East.
Israel is also headed for a major confrontation with its Arab citizens, of which there are over 1.5 million. The rise of Jewish extremism, the popularity of parties calling for the expulsion of all Arabs, and recently proposed legislation that calls the loyalty – and basic rights – of Arab Israelis into question are all factors fueling this imminent explosion. The Israelis built a wall to keep the Palestinians out – but what will they do when their own Arab population rises up? It will start as a nonviolent protest, and when it escalates it isn’t going to be pretty.
I’m going to give two probability ratings for this item, one for the Jordan-Morocco prediction:
Probability: 65%
And one for the Israeli Arab prediction:
Probability: 50%
5) A high-profile “incident” involving US spy ships or military aircraft and the Chinese in or near the South China Sea will set off another round of China-bashing in the US – You may remember the previous incident off Hainan island, in which an American spy plane was shot down: look for a replay this coming year. With the US reasserting itself in the region in a high-profile (and typically high-handed) way, expect an increased US military presence to provoke a response from the Chinese, who are probably sick and tired of being dressed down, insulted, and impinged upon by a country trillions of dollars in debt to them. Chinese nationalism is on the rise, and the irony is that if China goes democratic, and finally throws off one-party rule, its foreign policy is apt to be increasingly assertive – and even “anti-American,” i.e. resistant to US demands.
Probability: 60%
6) The rebirth of al-Qaeda – This is happening as I write, with “Al Qaeda in Iraq” claiming responsibility for the recent series of bombings in Baghdad. However, the real area of growth for followers of the late Osama bin Laden is in Africa, or at least that’s what the usual propaganda outlets are pushing. As the Obama administration wades into the African savannas, under the combined rubric of the “war on terrorism” and a “humanitarian” campaign to lift the African masses out of their longstanding misery, expect the US military footprint to widen considerably. We’re already in Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti, and most recently Uganda: the list of African nations with close military ties to the US includes Algeria, Botswana, Zambia, Gabon, Mali, Sierra Leone, Tunisia, Ghana, Namibia,Kenya, Uganda and Sao Tome. The US military has set up a special command, “Africom,” to coordinate its planned interventions. We’re primed, and ready.
The Chinese are already there, although their interest is entirely entrepreneurial: true to form, the Westerners are out to grab what they can, using whatever means they can to do so. By aligning with dictators like Ethiopia’s Meles Zenawi, we are ineluctably drawn into the complex web of tribal feuds and historic injustices that continue to afflict the African peoples. A propaganda-meme justifying this expansion of the Empire will feature a revived, Africanized “al-Qaeda” which has supposedly migrated to the dark continent and set up base camps in whatever country the West has its eyes on. This aspect of the “war on terrorism” will soon take on a “humanitarian” aspect, however, as the Obama-ites exercise their “Kenyan anti-colonialist” sensibility in reverse.
Probability: 85%
7) The only antiwar presidential candidate will be continuously smeared, demonized, and eventually driven out of the GOP by the party Establishment – If Ron Paul even comes close to winning Iowa, he will have everything but the kitchen sink thrown at him by a grand alliance of neocons, Obama cultists, and Beltway fake-“libertarians.” First they’ll blame the weather, then they’ll blame the “fanaticism” of Paul’s army of volunteers, and finally they’ll blame the voters, who are supposedly so poisoned by “resentment” that they must be declared officially mad. Delegates won fair and square will encounter “problems” with their credentials. Gloria Borger will team up with a famous psychic to divine who really authored the infamous newsletters, and fresh non-scandals will be unearthed by enterprising “journalists.” In the end, a coalition of neocons and Romneyites will issue an encyclical, excommunicating Paul and his supporters from the Republican party – and opening the way for a third party bid that will threaten to put the GOP nominee in third in November.
Probability: 95%
Well, my crystal ball is clouding up, inexplicably albeit inevitably, and it doesn’t look like I’m going to get more than seven “predictions” out of the spirits this time around. In looking back on my previous adventures in clairvoyance, usually indulged in this time of year, my record, I see, is fair but hardly Nostradamus-like. Not bad, compared to some.
Read more by Justin Raimondo
- ‘Egypt the Prize’ – January 1st, 2012
- Ron Paul and the Future of American Foreign Policy – December 29th, 2011
- Our Last Christmas in the Old America – December 25th, 2011
- Gay Rights and American Foreign Policy – December 22nd, 2011
- We Shall Overcome – December 20th, 2011
Johnny in Wi.
December 27th, 2011 at 10:19 pm
Try as I might, I can't see much to disagree with. Justin you are a brilliant analyst. I think your prediction about Ron Paul may be wrong. The party is so split that I think it is ready for a revolution, like in 1964. Goldwater and Rockefeller went down to the wire that year, as the insurgents won. Romney and Gingrich are no Rockefellers. Ron Paul is a lot smarter and saner then Goldwater The elites who have run the party for decades, are dispised by more and more party members. Lets hope there is an American spring this year as well.
DonT
December 27th, 2011 at 10:20 pm
Expulsion of Ron Paul will result in the Republican party and asybe the two party system entering the dustbin of history.
skulz fontaine
December 27th, 2011 at 10:22 pm
Ummm, Mr. Raimondo? You forgot to mention the Mayan Apocalypse. You know, for 2012? Now that's an event worthy of some considerable worry.
JLS
December 27th, 2011 at 11:47 pm
Wish someone would explain how the debt thing will end. I mean, we're up to 15 trillion now? So what happens with that? Do we just say "No you ain't getting your money" when they want to cash in the treasuries? Because if you couls predict THAT, then I think it might be bigger than all those other predictions in the article.
baz
December 27th, 2011 at 11:49 pm
justin,
if you really think the probability of war with iran is 65%, then you should be investing your life savings in oil futures. even the market is pricing in less than a 10% chance of this
John
December 28th, 2011 at 12:05 am
Bring on the Apocalypse! Many of us are going hungry with no end in sight. At least all the bastards will join our fate. If it happens my only regret will be that I won't have any Ossly White Light to enjoy the spectacle.
Ira Epstein
December 28th, 2011 at 12:36 am
Justin,
You forgot one important factor when considering the chances of war with Iran. Yes, congress does not care if public opinion is against war with Iran. And yes, getting the United States to go to war with Iran is the number one goal of the Israel lobby. The thing you forgot, however, is that the military against a war with Iran. Gates was skepitical about war with Iran, and even Panetta warned of severe unintended consequences in the event of war with Iran. I think the military lobby is the one lobby that can effectively counter the Israel lobby, and Congress will listen to the military. Further, I believe the military is well aware that a minor confrontation could blow up into a major war and they ( the military) are doing everything possible to avoid such a confrontation maybe even with the help of the Iranian military. I would downgrade the chances of war with Iran to 45%.
Seer
December 28th, 2011 at 1:22 am
You have not said anything about Afghanistan or Pakistan. Is it intentional or just an ommission?
Mark W. Stroberg
December 28th, 2011 at 2:14 am
Justin, you're wrong about Ron Paul. He will win Iowa and New Hampshire, and then he is unstoppable. What you fail to consider is that the people have sufficiently woken up to see the nakedness of the media and GOP establishment. They simply can't hide it anymore and people resent being told whom to vote for. Many, many people will vote for Paul as a protest against the media "presstitutes" and their attempts to slander him. It is becoming almost comical, like something out of "V, for Vendetta" how the major powers that be are in lock step against Paul. People aren't as stupid as you think.
Smithboy
December 28th, 2011 at 3:49 am
I predict a banner year for the Israeli lobby. With the new year, will come the full court press, via network and print media, to once again scare unsuspecting Americans into thinking "We cannot wait until we awake to a mushroom cloud to stop (Iran) from building a nuclear bomb."
I suspect neocons, as well as senators and congressmen and women, are purchasing oil futures as we speak. No need to let a war stand in the way of making a few million bucks.
Robert Fallin
December 28th, 2011 at 4:25 am
I agree with the analysis about the split in the GOP. After New Hampshire the race is going to be winnowed down to three or four candidates, Paul, Romney, Gingrich and, probably, Huntsman.
I think Gingrich will rapidly self-destruct after that, leaving the race to Paul, Romney and, maybe, Huntsman. I think Huntsman will be seen as the non-Romney/non-Paul alternative. This should actually help Paul, as it will split the GOP establishment vote and Paul's devoted supporters will be disproportionately represented in races throughout the winter months, as they can ALWAYS be expected to turn out. This will actually hurt Romney, as "smart money" will move away from Romney and toward Huntsman. The transition will hurt Romney as the race heads into California and Paul has already demonstrated tremendous strength there in the straw polls. The GOP, realizing they cannot stop Paul may decide they are better off trying to neutralize him with gains in the Senate and focus on winning there and on holding on to the House, where they are VERY likely to lose seats, possibly to independents. They will also work to "Bork" Paul at the convention, preferring an Obama victory to a Ron Paul presidency. So, I believe the odds of Ron Paul winning the GOP nomination have increased exponentially. However, let us remember, Paul could also be cheated by voter fraud in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina or Arizona, all of which have powerful Paul enemies in the leadership of the state gubernatorial and Congressional delegations.
liveload
December 28th, 2011 at 5:08 am
You forgot about the MeK/PMOI/Cult of Rajavi/Flaming Buttnuggets or whatever they call themselves nowadays.
james
December 28th, 2011 at 5:21 am
Ron Paul will be assassinated by Mossad: 100% probability.
GOP Neocons: Out-Warmongering the Dictator-in-Chief (and other news…) » Scott Lazarowitz's Blog
December 28th, 2011 at 5:23 am
[...] Justin Raimondo: Predictions for 2012 [...]
Claus Eric Hamle
December 28th, 2011 at 5:24 am
Why is the Pentagon deploying missiles in Bulgaria, Romania and Poland ? It has nothing to do with Iran-Der Spiegel, 49/2011.
Peter White
December 28th, 2011 at 5:38 am
Seems to me that somebody must know who authored the controversial articles in the Ron Paul Survival Report. If Dr. Paul wasn't the editor, who was? We know that Lew Rockwell has had a very long association with Ron Paul. When Ron Paul returned to Congress he had to halt publication of his "Ron Paul Survival Report" so subscribers to his Ron Paul Survival Report, which Lew Rockwell was a partner in with Ron Paul, were switched over to be subscribed to the Rothbard-Rockwell Report instead. This was reported in the Jan-Feb 1997 issue of the Rothbard-Rockwell Report. So it seems a fair bet that Mr. Rockwell knows who wrote the articles in the Ron Paul Survival Report. It's very interesting that the articles in question read much like many articles in the now defunct Rothbard-Rockwell Report which contained quiet a few articles of a racialist tone over the years. Did Lew Rockwell write the articles? Was it Murray Rothbard? Or perhaps was it Murray's openly racialist friend Michael Levin?
Whoever it was, wouldn't it be considerate of that person to come forward and take the heat off of Ron Paul now that Ron Paul has a good chance of making it all the way to the convention? Wouldn't it be a shame if the reason Ron Paul's candidacy fails is these old letters, that the media can blame on Paul, only because the person or persons responsible are unwilling to come forward? Of course Murray Rothbard can no longer come forward, but Mr. Rockwell surely could. At a minimum, it would be nice if Lew Rockwell would state what he does know about the publication of these articles.
Johnny in Wi.
December 28th, 2011 at 5:41 am
If this country doen't get out of these wars soon. There will be the end of th world as we know it.
James
December 28th, 2011 at 5:52 am
My 2012 prediction….. The Republican ayatollahs will brook no infidel. Ron Paul will be cast out upon the fruitless deserts. But not all will be lost. Gary Johnson will get the LP nod and Ron Paul will endorse his candidacy. Ron Paul’s Liberty Legions will bolt the Republican Party where they never really were welcome anyway for the LP. The LP with Gary as its presidential candidate will pull close to 15% in the general election barring Mittens from the White House. We’ll get 4 more years of Obama, but would that be any worse than Mittens? The LP will finally become a credentialed legitimate party that may one day displace the moldering ruins of the GOP.
Here’s to a happy 2012!
Wolfgang9
December 28th, 2011 at 6:08 am
I agree with all of that, especially with your statements on Russia, China, and Ron Paul!
The US will provoke both, Russia and China, in 2012 since its time of imperial rule is running out.. All actions to keep the Currency and Economy up in the US and Europe are only short term solutions and the situation is becoming more and more dangerous.
Will the CIA kill Putin in 2012? I fear that they will have some "Oswald" trained already and waiting.
If the US attacks Iran or Syria (where it has a naval basis), IMHO, I think that a Putin-led Russia will attack and completely destroy the Rocket defense places in Poland, the Czech Republic and Romania. Russia cannot afford to have that on its borders. This is an existential problem for the survival of Russia. I do not think that the US will respond to that, they will just swallow that. If I'm wrong, we will have a fuill blown WWIII!
We can see that, the Russia does not agree to any disarmament of tactical nuclear weapons. See http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20111228/170530602.htm…
And I can understand this. For me the danger of WWIII is now much larger than ever before (including the cold war era).
Wolfgang9
December 28th, 2011 at 6:11 am
See http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20111228/170530602.htm…
richard vajs
December 28th, 2011 at 6:20 am
Here is a prediction with a 100% chance of coming true – America will become even more fascist in 2012 than it has become lately. The elites cannot possibly allow democracy to flourish, ala Occupy Wall Street; America has too many forces pulling down the average citizen's standard of living. Declining standard of living leads to frustration and anger and vicious hatred; and unemployed people have too much time on their hands to think about things. The average American must and will have their frustration and anger redirected from the elites themselves to some convenient scapegoat(s) – Muslims, urban poor, immigrants, etc. Until it falls, America will show its ugly ass.
liveload
December 28th, 2011 at 6:36 am
My guess is Dondero
Wolfgang9
December 28th, 2011 at 6:44 am
IMO, the ONLY thing the US wins in a war with Iran is that it will destroy most of the structure of that country. But the US will loose much more, especially Iraq and Afghanistan, the Emirates and Saudi Arabia. The US troops stationed there will not be able to defend those dictators.
W9
Dieter
December 28th, 2011 at 7:05 am
In the spring of 2008 I concluded and wrote that candidate Obama is a dangerous neo-imperialist who would start his own wars if elected to the presidency. My record: invasion of Pakistan, expansion of the war in Afghanistan, drone-bombing in Yemen and Somalia, bombing of Libya, troops sent to Uganda, new bases in Australia, "cold" war with Iran. Not bad huh? Yes, there will be more Obama wars in 2012 and 2013 if he is re-elected because he is the textbook example of an alpha male when it comes to dealing with other nations.
Anne Christoff
December 28th, 2011 at 7:08 am
The urban poor–many of whom are welfare recipients too long on hand-outs– and illegal immigrants, who should not be in the country period—will not be "scapegoats" but fair game. They are part of the problem and don't give a flying rat's bottom that they are part of the problem as long as they can whine and cry and receive hand-outs. I am sorry, but not all vented frustrated searches for a "scapegoat". Often, it simply, often too harshly, must state the truth after trying to or having to be forced too repress it for too long. The US is being brought down by many things, but first and foremost, it is being brought down by a very poor quality of citizen/inhabitant
Dieter
December 28th, 2011 at 7:08 am
Little correction. Obama is not the alpha male. He absolutely believes that our nation is the alpha nation of the world and that is the inherent danger.
Ann Christoff
December 28th, 2011 at 7:09 am
"not all vented frustration", I meant.
MvGuy
December 28th, 2011 at 7:09 am
NO …No… No,…JLS… Think Bernie Madoff……… Now think of him with a printing press for dollars….. When you can print them, you never need say NO…!!
RyanSmurfy
December 28th, 2011 at 7:35 am
75% prediction. Marine Le Pen's French antiwar, anti-corporate campaign outperform's Ron Paul's American campaign.
1% prediction. Marine wins and withdraws France from NATO and reaches out to Russia and China.
MvGuy
December 28th, 2011 at 7:58 am
I wish I had the balls to see that "White Light"…………..
Ike Hall
December 28th, 2011 at 8:26 am
Perhaps so. But what is the US military doing about the spooks over in Foggy Bottom that are already working on destabilizing Iran? That's where the real trouble lies.
Ike Hall
December 28th, 2011 at 8:29 am
I'm not sure Ron Paul would bother to protect Dondero, although if it was him, the wise Doctor might be holding this until the time was right. :-)
liberranter
December 28th, 2011 at 9:26 am
Johnny, I think the only thing wrong with Justin's prediction about Ron Paul is that a fate worse than expulsion from the GOP awaits him. I hope and pray with all my heart and soul that I'm wrong about this, but given the events of the last couple of weeks (think: NDAA), I can't help but expect that the worst is yet to come.
liberranter
December 28th, 2011 at 9:31 am
Sorry, but the LP is the bought-and-paid-for property of the Koch Brothers, which effectively purged it of any actual libertarian principles. Real libertarians ("small 'l'") are no more welcome in that party than they are in the GOP.
David
December 28th, 2011 at 9:41 am
My minority opinion is that Iran is more valuable as a convenient villain than as a target for a real war. Something else to look for: as Ahmedinejad's final term as president approaches, the propaganda machine will start playing down his significance and looking for someone else to demonize.
Generalissimo X
December 28th, 2011 at 10:37 am
2012 will see this nation explode into pure chaos and economic ruin. 100%.
the masses will continue to be brainwashed moronic automatons who celebrate their own destruction. 100%
Generalissimo X
December 28th, 2011 at 10:39 am
wellll i'd like to agree with your last sentence, i really would. but i'm sorry, i just can't. here's to hoping you're right anyway. happy new year, your optimism is much greather than mine.
jgmoebus
December 28th, 2011 at 10:58 am
Just for the record, here are the highlites of Justin's Prediction's for 2011. The entire article can be found at: http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2011/01/02/pre…
Iraq pullout, canceled –
Afghanistan “surge,” Karzai out -
Pakistan “surge,” Zardari out –
Assange extradited, WikiLeaks closed down –
Civil liberties in the US on the wane –
Return to Latin America –
Another crash –
The Return of the “Yellow Peril” –
North Korea/China split –
Don’t ask, don’t tell, don’t go there –
As wrong as virtually each, all, and every (with the exception of the erosion of civil liberties) one of these Predictions for 2011 were, the Wrongest one was his concluding prognostication: "What I see is the continued growth of the anti-interventionist movement, on both the right and the left, and an increasing tendency to brush aside left-right blue-state/red-state prejudices in an effort to build a renewed and thoroughly modern antiwar movement in this country."
jgmoebus
December 28th, 2011 at 11:02 am
NOTE: The purpose of that comment was not to criticize, but merely to point out that the difficulty of The Prognosticator's Trade…..
i wonder if anybody knows of any 2011 Predictions that had a higher record of being realized?
i wonder what the CIA predicted?
Peter White
December 28th, 2011 at 11:38 am
Or perhaps the continuation of the world as we know it?
Deteriorating Relations with Russians | Dedicated to Presidential Candidate Ron Paul and Current News on Foreign Policy and Economy
December 28th, 2011 at 12:42 pm
[...] knows a few Russian missionaries, I wonder what will happen if U.S./Russian relations deteriorate. Justin Raimondo does not seem very optimistic. In fact, he says there is a 99% chance this will hap…: Deteriorating relations with Russia – This isn’t really a prediction, it’s a reality. The [...]
Deteriorating Relations with Russia | Dedicated to Presidential Candidate Ron Paul and Current News on Foreign Policy and Economy
December 28th, 2011 at 12:46 pm
[...] knows a few Russian missionaries, I wonder what will happen if U.S./Russian relations deteriorate. Justin Raimondo does not seem very optimistic. In fact, he says there is a 99% chance this will hap…: Deteriorating relations with Russia – This isn’t really a prediction, it’s a reality. The [...]
Raimondo and Ron Paul Prediction | Dedicated to Presidential Candidate Ron Paul and Current News on Foreign Policy and Economy
December 28th, 2011 at 12:48 pm
[...] Raimondo is not very optimistic about how the media will treat Paul: The only antiwar presidential candidate will be continuously smeared, demonized, and eventually driven out of the GOP by the party Establishment – If Ron Paul even comes close to winning Iowa, he will have everything but the kitchen sink thrown at him by a grand alliance of neocons, Obama cultists, and Beltway fake-“libertarians.” First they’ll blame the weather, then they’ll blame the “fanaticism” of Paul’s army of volunteers, and finally they’ll blame the voters, who are supposedly so poisoned by “resentment” that they must be declared officially mad. Delegates won fair and square will encounter “problems” with their credentials. Gloria Borger will team up with a famous psychic to divine who really authored the infamous newsletters, and fresh non-scandals will be unearthed by enterprising “journalists.” In the end, a coalition of neocons and Romneyites will issue an encyclical, excommunicating Paul and his supporters from the Republican party – and opening the way for a third party bid that will threaten to put the GOP nominee in third in November. [...]
Raimondo Ron Paul Prediction | Dedicated to Presidential Candidate Ron Paul and Current News on Foreign Policy and Economy
December 28th, 2011 at 12:50 pm
[...] Raimondo is not very optimistic about how the media will treat Paul: The only antiwar presidential candidate will be continuously smeared, demonized, and eventually driven out of the GOP by the party Establishment – If Ron Paul even comes close to winning Iowa, he will have everything but the kitchen sink thrown at him by a grand alliance of neocons, Obama cultists, and Beltway fake-“libertarians.” First they’ll blame the weather, then they’ll blame the “fanaticism” of Paul’s army of volunteers, and finally they’ll blame the voters, who are supposedly so poisoned by “resentment” that they must be declared officially mad. Delegates won fair and square will encounter “problems” with their credentials. Gloria Borger will team up with a famous psychic to divine who really authored the infamous newsletters, and fresh non-scandals will be unearthed by enterprising “journalists.” In the end, a coalition of neocons and Romneyites will issue an encyclical, excommunicating Paul and his supporters from the Republican party – and opening the way for a third party bid that will threaten to put the GOP nominee in third in November. [...]
Sam
December 28th, 2011 at 12:59 pm
Indeed a lot of trouble ahead. The US should end the useless wars and invest more in its people and infrastructures. A war with Iran backed by China and Russia, after the Irak debacle would be utter non sense and stupidity and a catastrophe for the whole world.
JLS
December 28th, 2011 at 1:09 pm
Lol I always thought it was ironic that his name was Madoff. You know, because he almost "made off" with all that money!
Israel looks for support to strike Iran - Page 43
December 28th, 2011 at 1:17 pm
[...] the Jundullah (a Sunni Islamic terrorist organisation with ties to Al Queda) to destabalise Iran. Predictions for 2012 by Justin Raimondo — Antiwar.com Washington’s Secret Wars by Philip Giraldi — Antiwar.com Jundallah: Iran's Sunni rebels – [...]
R.C.
December 28th, 2011 at 1:24 pm
….but everything to do with Russia. Eastern Europe is well out of the range of Iranian missiles, and NATO knows this. The notion that this missile shield is intended for Iran is an insult to anyone with common sense. I personally think the odds of a nuclear confrontation between NATO and Russia is greater than anytime during the cold war. The West is doing everything it can to villify Putin and drive him from power, but Russia is far to nationalistic to become a subsurvient lackey of the west, and the phony western-backed "opposition" in Russia does not exist the way the western MSM would like their subjects to believe. None of the NED State Department "Oppostion leaders" are polling over ONE PERCENT in the March 2012 elections, so they're allready claiming "fraud" when the election is still three months away!? This means, come election time, we'll hear from the usual "independent observers" that the election was rigged (eventhough polls have Putin FAR in the lead).
sandyfeet
December 28th, 2011 at 6:29 pm
I can see your point. How can anyone see the future if it doesn't exist? There is no future, because once I get to the future, it's no longer the future but the present and the day after that it becomes the past. I can think about and say what I am going to do tomorrow, but between now and then I don't know what things will happen that could change it. There is only the past, and how does that old saying go…Those who don't know the past are doomed to repeat it, something like that. Wish I had coined that phrase. :)
sandyfeet
December 28th, 2011 at 8:29 pm
OOOPs while I said the future is unwritten and can't be seen, I will make a prediction and anyone can quote me on this…..Somewhere in the world within the next one hundred years there WILL BE an earthquake…I've lived for thousands of years and have never been wrong with this one :)
@JaredBroker
December 28th, 2011 at 8:42 pm
Sounds realistic Jason, but I like to be more optimistic to the point of ridiculousness…Here are my predictions:
1. An unfortunate misunderstanding between the Iranian Navy and US Navy gives reason by our government to bomb them and start war. The Persian Gulf Conflict leads to 10 times the size of protests globally.
2. Oil prices skyrocket as Hormuz gets forcefully closed. The global economy collapses starting with the price of transport of goods and China's housing bubble which brings down Germany's machine exports, which bring down the rest of Europe and the dollar/debt bubble of the US.
3. The people demonstrate and realize that we never needed the governments for survival, they needed us! The Internet is suppressed by the power structures, but it is far too late for that.
4. Economies become much more centralized based around local gardening, individual specialties, Internet Media, and community partnership.
5. Corporate strangleholds disappear as they go bankrupt based on their outdated imperial economics. Their millions of ex-employees grow food and follow their own dreams and specialties.
6. Amazing suppressed technologies, especially in the energy sector, erupt to better humanity and bring us out of the suffering. We realize we are all Humans on Earth above everything else.
7. We begin to blast off to the stars with our nuclear arsenals as rocket engines, start capturing and mining asteroids and grow a human community in our solar system before exploring our galaxy!
I can hope, can't I? These are the goals I promise myself I will work towards every time I get out of bed in the morning. I've found that being unrealistic is a lot of fun!
Jared
Justin Raimondo
December 28th, 2011 at 10:50 pm
Actually, I was right about the "Yellow Peril." The Iraq pullout wasn't canceled, but rather faked — we'll still have many thousands of soldiers, including "private" contractors there, There is a Pakistan "surge" if by "surge" one means a surge of open hostility aimed at Islamabad. Assange will indeed be extradited, and Wikileaks has been crippled. Civil liberties are indeed on the wane — Congress has now given the President the power to detain anyone, anywhere, for any reason.
jgmoebus
December 28th, 2011 at 11:24 pm
Thank you, Justin, for your consideration of my comment. And thank you even more for your work. You and antiWar.com are, to this lonely sailor, a beacon of very comforting and orienting illumination shining thru a very Very dark nite on a very Very stormy Sea.
As i said in my follow-on comment: that was not a criticism, merely an observation and, in point of fact, a critique.
i wasn't challenging the accuracy and correctness of your headlines (as listed above), but of the supporting text, ie, the substance of and rationale for your predictions. For example, a "fake" is not a "cancellation"; you said nothing about stay-behind mercs. And when is a "surge" a "surge"? And not? And so forth…… knit-pic bs? WhatEver. That's not my point. Nor, do i suspect, yours.
i doubt seriously that anybody makes investment or life decisions based on your predictions. i know i don't. i suspect you don't either.
But i sure as hell do appreciate, as i said above, EveryThing that You DO.
Sincerely,
jg moebus
jgmoebus@gmail.com
jgmoebus
December 28th, 2011 at 11:28 pm
ps: But, don't you agree that it would be fun to find out what the CIA predicted?
i wonder if past National Intelligence Estimates are releasable under FOIA?
keltrava
December 29th, 2011 at 12:56 am
Ron Paul can sweep into office. He needs however to declare as quickly as possible a potential running mate. Someone who can balance out Paul's disadvantages mainly age. Someone also who the population would be comfortable taking over as President.
Many young voters are holding back supporting him simply because of age. If he realizes this then he's a shoe in.
sandyfeet
December 29th, 2011 at 1:42 am
"nite" you sailors sure have fallen short of late, try night, there that would fix it.
Wow you went from one way to total suck up within a matter of moments, and then couldn't even remember how to spell the word night. glad I wasted my post trying to tell you suck ups that looking into the future is a total impossibility simply because the future does not exist and never has therefore you cannot see it, If you tried to transport yourself to the future like in movies you would transport yourself to nothingness. Because the future hasn't happened therefore it doesn't exist and if it existed it wouldn't be the future. Most reasoning is based on passed events and doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure it out. But it is one thing to figure it out and quite another to actually put a face or faces to it's engineers and take them to task.
montaigne
December 29th, 2011 at 1:45 am
I wonder if we would see periods of cut off communications. Cell phones and internet. So that nobody could raise protesters etc. so easily. Living people are the wortst threat to vampires and zombies, but they could still be permitted to live on because they are still needed, just that they shall refrain from saying things, and doing things harming the obviously skrewed balance in favor of the virtual persons – corporations, parties, representants…
jgmoebus
December 29th, 2011 at 1:55 am
Wow, sandyfeet…… are you really that trained, programmed, and conditioned to honestly think that the ONLY correct way to spell "nite" is "night"? i guess you must have really gotten hammered for failing all those spelling test as a kid, eh? i'm sorry.
What does your dictionarily-correct knowledge and wisdom have to say about HOW to Confront, Combat, Defeat, and Destroy the Fourth Reich?
Suck-upenly yours,
jg
sandyfeet
December 29th, 2011 at 1:56 am
And I should have also mentioned that trying to foretell the future based on the shattered and mangled broken glass of history is not entirely accurate either.
just my opinion
jgmoebus
December 29th, 2011 at 2:02 am
on the other hand…. those who are ignorant of history are usually repeating it without even knowing it. Because there is very little that will happen tomorrow that has not — even if in only very subtle variation — already happened yesterday.
Hence the value of history. If you can find REAL History. Of course, given that History is only written by "the winners," Real History is exquisitely difficult to find, let alone be able to use.
But eventually, the Nite turns into Dawn.
R.C.
December 29th, 2011 at 3:59 am
If the CIA wanted to kill Putin, they probably would've made attempts years ago. I don't think this is on the table for a number of obvious reasons — the most obvious being nuclear war. I don't think any of the Russian/American intelligence agencies have ever seriously targeted one anothers leaders with assassination since the risk/fallout would be too great. On your other observation: Russia taking out the missile/radar stations installed by the US/NATO at some future date isn't outside the realm of possibility, and no, there probably wouldn't be a military response by the US/NATO just as there was no response when Russia spanked Georgia three years ago. It would certainly finish off any remaining ties with the US, but life would go on.
montaigne
December 29th, 2011 at 9:50 am
Another thought: Long time strategic considerations are NEVER presented to the public for public appoval, discussion or rejection! NEVER!
Well how can anybody assume that this "free" sort of society is above everything else in Human History, as well as above anything imaginable? For the last conclusion you have to consider yourself as omnipotent! But never at any place or time in History did people consider such thoughts as universal, true, or binding.
Then comes the important add-on to the scheme of physical power to the government etc. You must – MUST AT ALL TIMES – be able to slaughter people, and as many as it takes, to make them see the truth as presented by the token ones.
nezzar
December 29th, 2011 at 12:13 pm
The State of Israel will cease to exist:
Probability 5%
guest
December 29th, 2011 at 1:50 pm
" If Ron Paul even comes close to winning Iowa, he will have everything but the kitchen sink thrown at him by a grand alliance of neocons, Obama cultists, and Beltway fake-“libertarians.” "
I have to take issue with this because I believe they will indeed find some way to throw the kitchen sink at him as well.
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December 30th, 2011 at 2:04 pm
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