2012: Revolution or Devolution
The year 2011 marked a critical confluence of militarism and revolution, not only in places like Libya and Egypt, but also here at home, where massive demonstrations in cities and towns throughout the country were met with a well-oiled law enforcement machine deployed in camouflage and Kevlar, lobbing tear gas grenades and packing rifles with rubber bullets.
Like tanks, bulldozers commandeered by police over the last weeks crushed several “Occupy” encampments in New York, Philadelphia, Boston, Salt Lake City, and more. It could be the first time for such a strange juxtaposition in global images: the massive iron will of authority chewing away dissent here and in such far-flung places as Tahrir Square in Egypt.
As recent events in Egypt have demonstrated, revolution does not necessarily begin with resistance and end with an election. In the United States, Americans are facing decade two of a domestic war on terror that has expanded a vast security and surveillance apparatus that seems to be in perpetual confrontation with our Constitutional rights. The trouble is that every time the public cedes more control to the government, Washington just takes more (see the new military detention policies just passed by Congress in the National Defense Authorization Act).
In other words, war and the struggle for control is constant. Last year at this time, the world was absorbing tens of thousands of WikiLeaks documents that offered clues to how our governments behave, plot, and prioritize behind closed doors. They offered us, too, grim and dreadful windows into the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and they have been credited in part for exposing corrupt government behavior and providing a catalyst for massive street demonstrations in places like Tunisia, which overthrew its dictator, Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, in January.
Today, the leakers of those documents are on trial. One, Army Pfc. Bradley Manning, is in the United States. The other, Julian Assange, faces extradition to Sweden on unrelated charges. Meanwhile, we watch to see if our influence — or lack thereof — in places like Syria and Bahrain will hamper genuine triumph over tyranny and whether the U.S., undeterred by the now apparent failures in Afghanistan and Iraq, will continue its covert operations and drone attacks in Pakistan and in less reported fronts in North Africa and the Middle East.
At home, presidential candidate Ron Paul, the lone bulwark against intervention abroad and creeping militarism at home, faces a series of Republican primaries and caucuses beginning next week. He is considered a potential spoiler or kingmaker, but the odds of Paul becoming president are long if not insurmountable. If he loses, the status quo in foreign policy is the inevitable winner. Any other Republican in the White House will maintain if not accelerate wars and counterproductive meddling abroad, including a hyper-aggressive posture toward Iran.
If President Obama is reelected in 2012, it’ll be more of the same, with the possible bonus of a more open struggle with Iran, which the hardliners press harder for every day. Some say the war has already begun. Meanwhile, Obama’s now inevitable acquiescence to the recent expansion of the so-called terrorist detention rules indicate that his mind is on gathering and maintaining his executive powers, not the protection of our constitutional ones.
Simply put, the coming year is swollen with potential — for justice and reform, here and on the world stage. It can easily go the other way: more war, less hope, as we hover — on the cusp of 2012 — for the next act.
Let’s make sure we’re watching…
The Trial of WikiLeaks
Manning, 24, appeared in court on Dec. 16 for the first time in his year-long detention on charges he obtained and released hundreds of thousands of classified documents from his government computer while on active duty in Iraq. The government brought what analysts called a “highly damaging” case against Manning, offering a clear line between the former intelligence analyst and WikiLeaks and charging him with knowingly aiding al-Qaeda.
His defense attorney, David Coombs, was only permitted two out of the 38 witnesses he had requested to call to the stand and only 30 minutes to make his case over the five-day period. From The Daily Beast on Wednesday:
When asked by the investigating officer if he had any further evidence to present, Coombs said no, noting the long list of witnesses he’d been denied at the outset. Large segments of the defense’s case — asserting negligence on the part of the Army, unjust conditions of confinement of Manning at Quantico Marine Base, and a lack of clear damage done by the leaks — were precluded along with Coombs’s witnesses.
As Andy Worthington predicted in a preview I wrote about the hearing, it would seem that Manning’s chances for vindication are slim to none. But what does this all mean?
It means that despite the fact that many consider Manning a whistle blower and hero who has exposed the institutional rot that continues to degrade our authority and influence abroad, the government will make sure the country remembers him as a traitor. He will stand as a warning to any other prospective dissenters within the ranks of government. Manning has been painted as a troubled homosexual who was bullied inside and out of the Army, but the chat logs, including the following one exhibited at the trial, stand as key signifiers that Manning’s motivations went beyond his own personal struggles.
“This is perhaps one of the most significant documents of our time,” he wrote to WikiLeaks, when he allegedly attached a trove of Defense and State Department documents regarding the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, “removing the fog of war and revealing the true nature of 21st century asymmetric warfare. Have a nice day.”
By the end of the hearing, which could lead to a court-martial for Manning, there were rumors that money might have been involved in the Manning-WikiLeaks exchange. Again, chat logs suggest that Manning was not interested in personal gain, because he said clearly to ex-hacker Adrian Lamo, who turned out to be a government informant, that he believed the documents should be “in the public domain” and information “should be free.” Thus, suggestions he had visions of grandeur like those of Robert Hanssen just don’t wash.
Assange, who is fighting extradition to Sweden on sex assault charges, is the other key here. Is the U.S. government setting Manning up to go after Assange next? Strong evidence suggests that is where the military’s case is going. If so, would the U.S. government be willing to put the mainstream press that published the Manning-leaked documents on trial, too?
WikiLeaks has been massively damaged by the shutdown of financial access to donors. The U.S. managed that well, pressuring major banks and credit card companies to cut the leakers off. But whether Manning’s prosecution will lead to a blackout and prosecution of WikiLeaks remains to be seen. What had begun as an information revolution last year has become a war of attrition, it would seem, with the rebels on the run. Manning may be a martyr for our times, but what will become of the rebellion?
Foreign Policy: Will the U.S. Get on the Right Side of History?
Probably not. The direct U.S. involvement in the Libyan revolution and the killing of Moammar Gadhafi by NATO-backed rebels in October was a boon for foreign military intervention. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has already waded into the Syrian revolution against President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, pledging support to the network of opposition groups there. While thousands have reportedly perished at the hands of Assad’s military since the unrest began, it is wise to consider that some of the loudest voices behind an intervention are coming now from the same neoconservatives who promised that an Iraqi National Congress would be waiting in Iraq to take over the reins once the U.S. topped Saddam Hussein. That never happened. We should monitor the political motivations behind — and potential fallout from — what could be another U.S.-driven intervention in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, the U.S. has been silent on the violent crackdown in Bahrain, having taken sides, apparently, with the Saudi patrons backing the Sunni ruling elite there. How long can the U.S. government ignore the torture and intimidation that has reportedly broken the will of the protesters there?
Better yet, how long will the U.S. government stand with other dictators in the region in order to thwart our “enemy” in Tehran?
Much of this seems to be coming to a head in 2012, with or without our eager participation. As for Iran, the official rhetoric about its alleged nuclear weapons program is escalating, with Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta wildly charging in December that Tehran could have a nuclear bomb within the year.
Driving the tension are Republican presidential candidates who’ve spent the better part of the fall calling for de facto war against the regime. They might just get what they ask for.
The Drone Wars
Meanwhile, as the Republican cardboard cutouts accuse Obama of being weak on defense, the president has continued to pursue a drone war unequaled by any U.S. president or world leader in the history of mankind. His license: declared executive powers under the Authorization for the Use of Military Force, passed by Congress in 2002.
But in recent months, drones have drawn more media scrutiny, beginning with the September killing of American citizen and Yemeni cleric Anwar al-Awlaki then his 16-year-old son in a subsequent drone strike. More recently, the Pakistanis have blocked access to supply routes after a deadly drone attack against the Pakistani military on Nov. 26. The Washington Post finally raised some critical questions last week over the secrecy of the administration’s drone program, while pointing out that more than 2,250 people have been killed in the last three years by drones in Pakistan alone (a conservative estimate).
Any public awakening over the ugly truth regarding the impact of these drone wars (see this video for just a taste) will no doubt run up against the powerful interests of the military and the CIA, now run by David Petraeus, arguably the most influential — and political — man in the military since he left for the spy agency in September.
Drones fit nicely into the fresh talk by reformed COINdinistas about “fourth-generation warfare.” These weapons are a “cleaner” and more precise way to project American force and pursue narrow counterterrorism goals — or so say the apologists.
As headlines spread about the increased use of drones on the U.S.-Mexico border, as well as unarmed (so far) drones being used by domestic law enforcement, Americans are starting to see the drone creep as, well, creepy. Meanwhile, smart military experts continue to question the long-term strategic benefits of picking off people from the sky. A broader debate is imminent but long past due. We’ll see how far this goes in 2012.
The 2012 Elections
If Ron Paul loses the primary and decides not to run as a third-party candidate, the issue of foreign policy will likely take its normal course, meaning that the Republicans will attempt to cast Obama as weak, lacking “leadership,” and prone to “appeasement” as he “fails” to protect America’s allies in the Middle East, mainly Israel. For this, the election will elicit more of the same kabuki drama as the 2004 and 2008 elections and will not be worth much of the ink that is written about it. The next several weeks will be taken up by horse-race predictions and results stemming from the clot of primary and caucus events this winter.
Watch for whether the Gingrich bubble finally pops and how much Paul is hurt by the resurfacing controversy over the content of his 1990s newsletters. As of Dec. 23, the latest poll for the Iowa state caucus had Paul with 28 percent of the vote, followed by Gingrich with 25 percent and Gov. Mitt Romney at 25 percent. The Iowa caucus is the first in the nation on Jan. 3, followed by the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 10 and the South Carolina vote on Jan. 21 (full primary/caucus schedule here).
Of course, there will be a host of “important” Senate and House races in 2012, but I think as the past 10 years have demonstrated, with power shifting from Republicans to Democrats to Republicans again, there isn’t much light between the two. The system is broken, but it is also stacked against reform. So we brace for the empty hoopla, which will include two enormously expensive political bacchanals called the national conventions, before the inevitable relief of Nov. 7, 2012.
Supreme Court Decides … Your Privacy
2011 was certainly not a good year for personal privacy. Aside from continuing revelations about how Facebook, Google, and your so-called smart-phone providers are snatching information from your online browsing habits and selling it to the highest bidders, the government (and that includes law enforcement) is constantly finding new ways to monitor you using the very technology we tout as invaluable touchstones in the advancement of human civilization.
Take global positioning systems, or GPS. Word is, many of us can’t live without a GPS unit attached to our car dashboards. Turns out the police love them as much. By affixing them under the carriage of your car, Johnny Law will know where you’re going, too.
In what could be a seminal decision in privacy rights and curbs on post-9/11 police powers related to the Fourth Amendment protection against unlawful search and seizure, the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule soon on whether police have the right to install GPS trackers on a suspect’s car without a warrant. There is some hope for the power of the Constitution here: in November, justices invoked George Orwell’s 1984 in raising questions about the warrantless GPS tactics, a sign that the court is actually paying attention to the enormous implications of allowing the police to track U.S. citizens everywhere, without warrant or notice.
This won’t stop police from finding other ways to find you. As milblogger Michael Yon points out, Facebook allows people to track any one of their “contacts” via their iPhone. Coming full circle back to the creeping militarization of America: we know that the military is already using cellphones to pinpoint and target suspects in Afghanistan; just how long will it take for police (and potentially, thanks to the NDAA, military intelligence) to use similar tactics here? Are they doing it already?
Still, the Supreme Court’s decision regarding the police and GPS will be an important one, if only to throw up one more roadblock against this careening car of hyper-criminalization and intrusion.
* * *
On a lighter note, I would like to extend a Happy New Year to all Antiwar.com staff and readers and thank you for your insightful comments and generous encouragements throughout the year. You help to inspire this column, and it is all the better for it. I will endeavor to keep up the pace on these and other issues of interest in the coming year!
Follow Kelley Vlahos on Twitter @KelleyBVlahos.
Read more by Kelley B. Vlahos
- Let’s Do 1989 All Over Again – December 19th, 2011
- Iraq: No Comfort in Being Right – December 12th, 2011
- Bradley Manning Finally Gets a Hearing – December 5th, 2011
- Don’t Be a Tool This Christmas – November 28th, 2011
- Gingrich the Thanksgiving Turkey – November 21st, 2011
skulz fontaine
December 26th, 2011 at 10:38 pm
Great article Ms. Kelley. 2012 will bring 'evolution'. A natural evolution of dissent. Let that dissent be creative and "robust." Criminy, I used the 'r' word. Sorry about that. OWS was a thriller. OWS is now mostly a bust. So, get creative people. Harass, spirit away, harass some more, then shape-shift into something new and different. Send your congressional rep a dog turd and wish them the best.
Gonna have to get crafty in 2012 and just be one massive irritation.
jgmoebus
December 27th, 2011 at 3:40 am
It's going to take a little bit more than irritating craftiness and mail-in turds for Resistance to Empire to have any meaningful realworld effect on the unfolding course of history in 2012.
Above all, it is going to take tactics and strategy suitable to the Situation and the Enemy. It is going to take methods and means suitable to the Mission and the Resources available. Above even more, it is going to take neither pessimism nor optimism; it is going to take Realism.
The time of protest and "dissent" is over. For there is no protest, there is no dissent in a war zone. And ever since the so-called "Terror Event" of September 11, 2001, this entire planet has been a warzone.
There is no protest, there is no dissent in a war zone. There is either resistance and revolt against the invading, occupying forces, or there is compliance and complicity. Witness France during WW II.
This planet has been invaded and occupied, and we — those who understand and seek to confront, combat, defeat, and destroy the invading occupiers, The Fourth Reich — approach the last moments when real, sustained resistance and revolt will still be feasible and possible. The rest of you approach the beginning of your lives as camp residents.
Smithboy
December 27th, 2011 at 8:07 am
As long as there a voices like yours, I'll cling to hope that we will once again see our government as something other than a war machine who kills and tortures without conscience.
tomthumbsgallery
December 27th, 2011 at 9:00 am
Keep telling the truth and the empire will collapse from its own lies.
CNN took down the video of the little girl with the horrific burns.
Time for us to plant pretend drones in every front yard.
Have a great year.
jgmoebus
December 27th, 2011 at 9:14 am
"Truth" has never destroyed an Empire. Because The Empire owns the "Truth" and the means and methods by which it is created, established, promulgated, and sustained.
Resistance and Revolt destroy Empires. Along with Courage and Conviction.
There was a little girl with horrific burns 40 years ago: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phan_Thi_Kim_Phuc .
One thing you must acknowledge that Empire can do: learn lessons from past failures, especially of the PR kind. Why do you think all current "war correspondents" are "embedded" (sic)?
If Resistance and Revolt is to succeed, we too must learn lessons from past failures. And there is a target-rich environment, a whole generation of those.
jgmoebus
December 27th, 2011 at 9:45 am
Ron Paul is irrelevant to the confrontation with, combat against, and defeat and destruction of Empire.
If he wins the nomination, it is because the Republicans are playing by The Rules ("8 On – 8 Off" ie, We rule for 8 years, You rule for 8), and they play by those Rules, and concede 2012 to Sambo.
Besides, why do they need a "Republican" in the White House when they already have Obama? Can anybody cite ANY significant domestic or international policy execution difference between the Obama and Cheney Regimes?
Ron Paul will serve the same function as Goldwater in 1964: To ensure an Obama landslide now as AuH2O assured an LBJ landslide then. How soon after Paul gets the nomination will it be before the moral, intellectual, and visual equivalent of the "Daisy Count-Down" ads will begin to appear? : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daisy_(advertisement… . Only this time, they'll be about an America rendered defenseless by Paul's foreign policy and an America rendered impoverished and enslaved by his economic principles?
And, how soon after Paul's annointment will it be before 2012's version of the Tonkin Gulf Incident occurs?
jgmoebus
December 27th, 2011 at 10:34 am
Perhaps you can enlighten we heathens, liveload, and explain:
what "such" revolutions/revolts can (and have) succeed(ed)?;
what exactly is "organic democracy"?;
what does Mobutu have to do with anything that is under discussion?;
and, what are at least three of your other "example(s) amongst dozens"?
liveload
December 27th, 2011 at 11:04 am
Really? Are you that f-cking stupid?
Articles for Tuesday » Scott Lazarowitz's Blog
December 27th, 2011 at 11:37 am
[...] Kelley Vlahos: 2012: Revolution or Devolution? [...]
jgmoebus
December 27th, 2011 at 11:40 am
Well, either i am, or you are.
So, again i'll ask you and see if you have anything besides noise and further avoidance/non-answers to offer:
what "such" revolutions/revolts can (and have) succeed(ed)?;
what exactly is "organic democracy"?;
what does Mobutu have to do with anything that is under discussion?;
and, what are at least three of your other "example(s) amongst dozens"?
Worthington: Wikileaks no threat – Toronto Sun | Wikileaks Secret
December 27th, 2011 at 11:46 am
[...] treatment of gaysExaminer.comRon Paul Under Fire for Praising Accused TraitorCanada Free Press2012: Revolution or DevolutionAntiwar.comCalgary Heraldall 7 news [...]
Phil Giraldi
December 27th, 2011 at 12:54 pm
Follow the money. The fact that an increasingly oppressive and autocratic national government meets almost no resistance from congress is due to the fact that every congressman is on a fast track to becoming a multi-millionare as long as he supports the status quo. So they do nothing as the constitution is gutted and new wars start, waiting for the time when they can insert their noses in the feed bag. We have to cut the get rich quick pipeline. Limit the terms of congressmen by constitutional amendment and forbid them to lobby their former peers or government officials for a period of five years with strict enforcement and draconian penalties for failure to comply.
Lorraine
December 27th, 2011 at 2:15 pm
Great article, Kelley. I have already emailed it on. Just yesterday I was lamenting the "devolution" of our society… but a few voices of reason (yours, Phil's, etc.) keep me from concluding that the whole world has indeed gone mad. happy New Year!!
ANU News.net 2012: Revolution or Devolution
December 27th, 2011 at 5:28 pm
[...] As recent events in Egypt have demonstrated, revolution does not necessarily begin with resistance and end with an election. In the United States, Americans are facing decade two of a domestic war on terror that has expanded a vast security and surveillance apparatus that seems to be in perpetual confrontation with our Constitutional rights. The trouble is that every time the public cedes more control to the government, Washington just takes more (see the new military detention policies just passed by Congress in the National Defense Authorization Act). Occupy Salt Lake City gets bulldozed (Christopher Reeves photograph)In other words, war and the struggle for control is constant. http://original.antiwar.com/vlahos/2011/12/26/2012-revolution-or-devolution/ [...]
MvGuy
December 27th, 2011 at 8:51 pm
W0W….. Sure worth the price of admission to see jgmoebus in action with liveload….. Kelly has lighted the sky and the boys are sending up starbursts……
"The time of protest and "dissent" is over. For there is no protest, there is no dissent in a war zone. And ever since the so-called "Terror Event" of September 11, 2001, this entire planet has been a warzone."
The world has been a war zone all along…..&&&&&&& The empire has it's phases like the moon, encircle but it just goez round and round.. You are callin it the IV Reich……. So let us say it is on an orbit to encircle us by 20-& 40 year turns…… and it seems that things don't always turn out quite as they would desire………….. STILL……….. It isn't everyday that an optimist like jg rises over OUR horizon and taps into divine insight……… Well…. 1920( or-)1940, 1960……….2000…!! I guess one could say peace, or what passes for peace had a decent run after Vitenam……. when the young woke up to what was being done here in America…and went OUT onto the street and started yellin hell no, we won't go……… Off to the rape of Vietnam….. and for WHAT….??? But the following generation took the gains for granted and moreover, they thought that the citizens had too many rights and SHOULD be "more patriotic"… and beholding to their government…… Their sports centric raw,,raw… for our team became political obeisance………………
Then the badly bungled but ultimately successful "fire" Next the enabling act AKA Patriot… then the marshal onslaughts Afghanistan…… Iraq…. Similar to Poland and Czechoslavia….??? NOW comes the Berlin laws….. dressed up as presidential terrorism powers…….. S-1867….. We are ALL Hebrews NOW…. or actually Arabs….. We now are the ones SUBJECT to EXTRA-CONSTITUTIONAL….&&&……..EXTRA -JUDICIAL MILITARY "JUSTICE" ALA GUANTANIMO &&&&&&&& NEARLY EVERY ONE OF "OUR" REPRESENTATIVES SIGNED THAT DECREE……..
Hey, we AREN"T in the land of the free any longer….. Our OWN elected officials have consented to scrap OUR constitution….. The one that limits and checks THEIR power over US the governed… Trial by jury..?? Gone!! Innocent until proven guilty…?? Gone, replaced by indefinite detention where the empire is concerned…
Unfortunately….. there aren't enough jgmoebus(es) to confront this change in fortunes of our country…. in our freedom today……… We will see what tomorrow brings………
MoT
December 28th, 2011 at 3:38 am
five years? Hell!… I'd say that it should be forever. Let the so-called "sacrifice" of public service be just that…. a sacrifice. They get two years with room and board in a barracks style living arrangement. Families stay home in their districts. No lords and ladies. Once their tour is over then have to get the hell out for the rest of their lives. Give someone else the reigns and so on and so forth. That's sacrifice. Take bribes? Cronies? Instant life imprisonment. Let's see how much they care about you or me then. Travel by plane? Mandatory pat downs in front of the public and if they don't like it then dismantle the fascist TSA.
2012: Revolution or Devolution | 9/11 - A Cheap Magic Trick
December 28th, 2011 at 7:07 am
[...] to the rest of the article 2012: Revolution or Devolution 911 Cover-up, False flags, Media coverup, Pentagon, Phony war on terror Leave a comment [...]
peeznluv
December 28th, 2011 at 8:06 am
The U.S never had any reason to "attack back" after the infamous so called "terrorist attack" on 9/11/01. apart from the highly credible sources indicating internal plotting to fuel the angry avengeful American supremist who self-describe themseves as "pro-American" while believing in war as "defense of nation", no wonder any other nation might want to be innvolved in such foreign aggression against the American empire. We have 900 military bases around the world, yet call Hitler the gold standard of evil. It has ALWAYS only been about "power", greed, money into our massive military industrial complex. We've gone against five founding fathers warnings, agasinst the Constitutional Bill of Rights with "equality for all" with respect to legal system, broken Int'l Law and are driving our own country to the ground. Rather than closing down our military bases, we are closing down schools, hospitals, social services. 3rd world America with it's military spending. Ron Paul is only one with the balls to stand up against this bullshit
Attack the System » Blog Archive » 2012: Revolution or Devolution
January 1st, 2012 at 8:18 am
[...] Article by Kelley Vlahos. [...]