Newt Gingrich shows signs of slide in Iowa

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Republican presidential candidate former House Speaker Newt Gingrich speaks at the

Gingrich now leads Ron Paul by a single point in Iowa. | AP Photo

Newt Gingrich has gone from surging to slipping.

Under a barrage of negative TV ads and after weeks in the spotlight, Gingrich’s poll numbers have begun to recede in Iowa — a downward trajectory none of the previous 2012 GOP presidential front-runners were able to reverse once it started.

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Though he’s still in the first-place spot he held a week ago in Public Policy Polling’s survey of the state, he leads Ron Paul by a single point — a virtual dead heat — in data collected at the beginning of the week. In a poll conducted Tuesday by Republican-leaning Rasmussen, he trails Mitt Romney by 3 points.

In the RealClearPolitics aggregate of data from a range of state polls in Iowa, Gingrich has fallen from a 31-point high on Sunday to 27.2 on Thursday. He still leads Mitt Romney (18) and Ron Paul (16.7). But Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry and Herman Cain — were never able to gain points on the RCP aggregate after they started losing them.

“The fact that his favorability could drop 20 points in a week once people really started scrutinizing him does not speak well to his resiliency over the next 19 days,” PPP pollster Tom Jensen said, referring to the Jan. 3 caucuses. “I would expect that he’s going to keep falling and really could end up down in third place with Bachmann and Perry behind Romney and Paul. That’s where I would expect the race to be a week from now.”

On the online futures speculation website Intrade, Gingrich’s closing value crashed 15 points in two days, his most precipitous fall on the online exchange site since his surge began.

The Romney and Perry campaigns say their internal polls show Gingrich dropping, with Perry improving and Paul’s numbers holding strong.

“I think everybody is kind of in awe of how volatile the race is,” said Republican National Committeeman Steve Scheffler, who heads Iowa Faith & Freedom. “I just think anything can happen. It’s kind of unprecedented what you see happening in Iowa now.”

The RealClearPolitics index shows that Gingrich’s Iowa peak came almost four years to the day of Mike Huckabee’s 2008 high point. On Dec. 13, 2008, Huckabee was at 35.0 in the RCP Iowa polling index. The former Arkansas governor still had enough of a lead to defeat Romney on caucus night, but his numbers tumbled during the last three weeks of the Iowa campaign before John McCain seized momentum in New Hampshire.

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