Financial markets

US election

The markets still say Mitt

Jan 23rd 2012, 14:00 by Buttonwood

HAVING posted before on the seemingly inevitable nomination of Mitt Romney, I thought I'd better check up on the betting on Iowa's electronic markets. In the wake of the Gingrich resurgence in South Carolina, there has been a slight fall in confidence about the Romney candidacy but at a price of 73.4, he is still the overwhelming favourite. As you can see, only Gingrich of the other candidates has a real price. There is no sign that a "white knight" candidate, like Jeb Bush, will emerge.

Incidentally, the markets also seem more confident than they were in September that President Obama will be re-elected, perhaps because of the Republican in-fighting. At the moment, it's about a 57%-43% split (that's not a forecast of the vote shares, it;s a winner take all market. a bet on Obama means staking $57 to get $100.)

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Faedrus Jan 23rd 2012 15:23 GMT

"Incidentally, the markets also seem more confident than they were in September that President Obama will be re-elected, perhaps because of the Republican in-fighting."

Or, because of the increased likelihood (albeit still relatively small), that Gingrich will win the Republican nomination, who is a better opponent for Obama than Romney.

Or, because the US economy (and stock market) have improved markedly over the last few months.

Melissia in reply to Faedrus Jan 23rd 2012 15:52 GMT

A better opponent FOR Obama, indeed...

jomiku Jan 23rd 2012 15:19 GMT

Markets have difficulty dealing with insanity.

About Buttonwood's notebook

In this blog, our Buttonwood columnist grapples with the ever-changing financial markets and the motley crew who earn their living by attempting to master them. The blog is named after the 1792 agreement that regulated the informal brokerage conducted under a buttonwood tree on Wall Street.

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