Chinese New Year

KUNG HEI FAT CHOI…Cassandra is pleased to wish everyone a happy new Chinese year of the dragon. Supposedly, those born in a dragon year (they occur every 12 years) will enjoy health and wealth—which explains the eagerness of Chinese couples to time their pregnancies accordingly. But will this year be a truly good one for the People’s Republic? The World in 2012 in its special section on China worries about rising debt and the property bubble, and it gives a soberly balanced view of the months ahead:

The government will be relieved that one potential trigger of unrest, inflation, will be less of a threat in the coming months as food prices stabilise. GDP growth will ease, but not dramatically (to perhaps 8.3%, down from an estimated 9% in 2011).

Even so, the authorities will remain edgy. A huge middle-class-led demonstration in the north-eastern city of Dalian in August 2011 over an environmental issue, which resulted in a rapid government climbdown, will encourage others to try.

But surely the underlying point is that, in comparison with the West, China will remain in good shape. Moreover, at its 18^th congress (probably in October) the Chinese Communist Party will organise a smooth leadership transition for the following spring: President Hu Jintao will be succeeded by Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao will give way to Li Keqiang. Whether the leadership changes will mean much to ordinary Chinese is perhaps doubtful. What is certain is that they will be overjoyed if later this year Chinese “taikonauts”—including the country’s first female astronaut—travel to the Tiangong-1 space module, practising the techniques which eventually will establish a permanent Chinese outpost in Earth orbit.