American politics

Democracy in America

The South Carolina primary

The slog begins

Jan 22nd 2012, 4:26 by J.F. | COLUMBIA, SOUTH CAROLINA

"THIS is the beginning of a long, hard slog," said Ron Paul, at his optimistically titled "Victory Party". "This is a hard fight because there's so much worth fighting for," said Mitt Romney, "and we've still got a long way to go." Indeed we do. A week ago South Carolina was going to be Mr Romney's coup-de-grace, turning Florida into an afterthought. He had won the two previous contests. Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Rick Perry were squabbling over the social-conservative votes. Only Messrs Paul and Romney had the organisation and the ground game to go the distance, and Mr Paul's support had (and still seems to have) a low ceiling. But then Mr Perry dropped out, endorsing Mr Gingrich. A recount showed Mr Santorum won in Iowa. Mr Gingrich parlayed a couple of powerful debate performances into victory in South Carolina. And Mr Romney now finds himself with the wind in his face rather than at his back.

What happened in South Carolina? Erick Erickson writes that today's result was "about Republican grassroots giving the Washington Establishment the finger. The base is angry, and right now only Newt is left to fight for them." Mr Gingrich can hardly be considered a Washington outsider, having served in Congress for some 20 years, but if there is one thing the former speaker is good at, it's fighting. His debate performances this week displayed not a mastery of the issues, or any particularly novel policy proposals, but anger. His speeches have portrayed the campaign as an epic battle between an exceptional American, himself, and an un-American president. So it's hard to argue with Mr Erickson's analysis, but if you look at the exit polls, it is equally hard to be satisfied with it.

Particularly in the last week of the campaign, Mr Gingrich engaged in some expert racial dog-whistling. He called Barack Obama the "food-stamp" president (shades of Ronald Reagan's infamous "Welfare Queen") and accused him of declaring war on religion and traditional American values. He was not merely condescending to Juan Williams, the lone black moderator in the most recent debate, but effectively called him lazy at a campaign event. He then used this tussle as a campaign ad arguing that he could most effectively beat Mr Obama, who just happens to share the same skin colour as Mr Williams. These attacks seemed to go down well with primary voters, who were 99% white.

Then there is the religious angle: 64% of South Carolina's voters are white evangelicals, and 60% of those voters think it is very or somewhat important that a candidate share their religious beliefs. The Mormon Mr Romney did poorly with that group of voters, who instead gave their support to Mr Gingrich, in spite of his history of philandering. So South Carolina was always going to be unfavourable ground for the former governor; the question is what does he do now?

In the short term, he goes to Florida, where his SuperPAC has spent $7.3m on TV ads and Mr Gingrich's has spent none. Then he goes to Nevada, which is 11% Mormon, where he will do fine. He remains the likely nominee, but he will need to change tactics, and quickly too. His recent debate performances were as abysmal as Mr Gingrich's were stellar. When questioned about his wealth, he stuttered, twitched and stammered, for no good reason. He did not get rich robbing banks; he got rich by being good at his job, and if, as he said tonight, Republicans celebrate success and prosperity, he has nothing to apologise for. So he will need to confront the attacks on his business record, and tonight he made a good start, accusing Mr Gingrich of attacking free enterprise. But his air of inevitability has worn off, and his electability argument has been dented. That makes it much harder to win as everybody's second choice, and it may prove more costly in the long run than simply not winning the few delegates South Carolina offers.

(Photo credit: AFP)

Readers' comments

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J. Kemp

The surge of Mr. Gingrich would seem to be yet more evidence that Americans are more interested in hiring a quick-tongued television personality than an actual executive for executive office. That is too bad for America.

Individuals who are quick with a phrase, and unfazed by personal attacks might give a good show, but often "good show" is what they are best at, not executive functions.

America is at a point where it needs someone who can execute prudently and quickly, and implement real change. Individuals who are best at making themselves popular in the moment with their words and delivery are not necessarily going to be prudent, quick or effective in executive office.

When will Americans ever learn this?

HrlnGrv

American Republicans usually prefer their presidential nominees to be intellectual second raters who've developed character. Exceptions are those who've served as vice president.

That doesn't describe either Romney or Gingrich, both of whom seem to be mistrusted and/or loathed by large numbers of Republicans. Romney has been too successful to have developed character (his loss to McCain 4 years ago wasn't humbling enough), Gingrich is too nasty. Best the party could hope for is Paul and Santorum picking up enough delegates to make the nomination take several ballots.

Handworn in reply to HrlnGrv

...on the other hand, many of the intellectual first-raters appear to have made certain they didn't try to succeed in any other field than that in which they were likely to be first-rate. Sam Rayburn said about LBJ's brilliant advisors, "Lyndon, I'd feel a whole lot better if just one of them had once run for sheriff," and it's pretty certain President Obama wouldn't even have tried that, nor succeeded if he had. There are other things besides ideas in the world, y'know.

HrlnGrv in reply to Handworn

Granted. Other things besides ideas = developed character. I also mean learned humility first hand, but bounced back from adversity. These are life experiences Romney hasn't had, which is why there are legitimate doubts about how he'd handle adversity for the first time if he did become president.

Maybe Romney was elected governor in a very Democratic state because he's much more the Democrats' ideal than the Republicans'.

MaximW

Gingrich is, and never will be right for this country. He holds far too many positions that I would classify as being radically extreme. If he were to become our next president I would expect to see unprecedented damage to our economy and to our international relations. Anyone that wrote a dissertation focused on such a phenomenally narrow and perhaps trivial topic as: "Belgian Education Policy in the Congo: 1945–1960" is not fit to lead a country as dynamic and as diverse as the U.S.A.

This looks like it will almost certainly become an election of "choosing the lesser evil", in my eyes: "who can do the least damage over their term?".

I think that we should begin purging the system of "career politicians", experience on Capitol Hill is incredibly overvalued. Whoever wants power the most, should be the last to get it.

John Albert Robertson

I'm sorry but a lot of you guys don't understand American code.

Newt Gingrich will beat up on the social benefits of food stamps and welfare because those are understood to be programs created for blacks. Newt will not beat up on the social benefits of unemployment and Medicare because those are understood to be programs created for everyday people, that is whites.

Now he might quietly undercut unemployment and Medicare, sure. But he's not going to bash those programs because his voters will take that as an attack on what they like, rather than an attack on what blacks like.

You're in a whole lot of denial if you deny the effect of race in South Carolina, a state where nearly every Republican voter is white and where Jesse Jackson (as Bill Clinton famously said) won the Dem primaries. Race is first, second, third, and fourth as an issue.

my0pinion

I'm not sure if racism played a role in Former Speaker Gingrich winning SC over Mr Romney, but I'm sure it did in the writing of this article.

oops...

Are food stamps a bailout for the private sector? They must be spent, so the money would go to the owner of whatever shop or food establishment that they are being used in and increase demand. Do republicans think the money used on food stamps is never to be seen again? Is the republican argument that food stamps are preventing people from finding a job to feed themselves? Because that is ridiculous. What is the main argument against food stamps? Why is it seen as a thing to be derided and that to label a president 'food stamp president'? It seems to me that people think that because there is a president willing to help those in need that those people suddenly become lazy and disinclined to work?

guest-iisnoms

This is probably the best election this country has seen in years. As an African American independent, and one who had a class with Obama and was one of his first volunteers when he ran for his first office: I am quite disappointed with Obama. By the way, I quit as a volunteer and did not vote for him when he ran for President. Though I did support him when McCain selected Palin as his VP. Romney is an establishment candidate.I do not support Romney because he isn't authentic. And most importantly his greatest argument that having business skills makes him the most qualified does not hold up. Romney's business skills obviously did not translate into good governance as evidence of his record as Governor of MA, which came after his time at the Olympics and at Bain. Santorum is far too right to be elected. Gingrich is a divisive politician as evidence by his time as Speaker and more recently by his denouncing all the centrist actions and statements he has made in the past few years. I like Ron Paul. Obama had never held any major position prior to his legislative elections. Moreover nearly every elected position he held was due to the media being in love with him as a "post racial" candidate. The classic case of clandestine and historical racial attitudes of the North. They eschew overt racism but feed and play into hidden racism. Clearly Obama deserves lots of credit for what he has accomplished given the state of the country when he took over. Yet, Obama's election was about reform and change of which he has done little. Obama's problems are that he is over handled by his circle, has locked out the support of the people who elected him, failed to provide strong leadership when it comes to the environment (after the oil spill and nuclear disaters), economy (not supporting Simposn Bowles and a balanced budget amendment), immigration (favoring fence building), and foreign policy (no direct talks with Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, etc). Obama has not been a great failure as the right has painted but neither has he lived up to the hype that the media help create. The right is correct in their analysis of the media's support of Obama. But lest we forget that the media was complicit in wars of the right, the patriot act, deregulation of laws which help to bring us to near economic ruin. That being said, I look forward to a third party candidate who can finance themselves and discuss and bring forth a balanced budget, direct talks with extreme regimes, a comprehensive humane immigration policy, investments in clean energy, and a reform to our electoral system which rewards delegate counters and corporate backers rather than the voice of the citizens of this great country through popular vote. By the way I have voted for Republicans, Democrats and Independents.

Dr Alan Phillips Sr.

ROMNEY NOW MORE THAN EVER

The father of our country, George Washington set the bar high for future presidential nominees to master. Importantly, a born leader with character, a great husband, a keeper of oaths, an example for followers to emulate.

I am an Evangelical, former educator, pastor, teacher, and a presidential candidate in 2011. I have studied all the Republicans running for office and find myself committed in support to the candidacy of Mitt Romney. It matters to me greatly who leads our nation, creates jobs, proposes policy, provides an example for youth, and serves as our President.

I, as was John Kennedy before me, opposed to religious bigotry and feel strongly that it should be eliminated from this campaign. I do not approve of infidelity and lack of personal conviction in a person seeking the highest office in the nation. I want a man of balance not an individual with an unsteady hand on the nuclear trigger. We are living in a dangerous world that’s why my endorsement is for a man of character, a great wife and family, Mitt Romney. Mitt serves in the tradition of Washington, Lincoln and countless other great leaders. His election is the answer in my opinion to the restoration of the American Dream.

Alan Phillips
Bloomington, IL

urbanyouth

For those readers who are having a hard time seeing how race has anything to do with Newt's statement:

He characterized President Obama as a food-stamp president. Thought experiment. When you think food stamps, generate an image of who would receive those food stamps. Say out loud what color that person is.

If you say black then odds are your own prejudices will prevent you from seeing anything wrong with his statements.

Texas Jay

Once the Economist was an outstanding journal. Now it is liberal hacks whose every analysis brings race into it. Juan Williams brought up the race issue and tried to tie it to food stamps. More white Americans are on food stamps---so how can it be racial.

You liberals just have to go to race. Get over it.

Argie57

As a Latino who has lived in the US for 25 years (legally) and adopted the US citizenship, I can honestly say that, should we continue to elect "leaders" based on populist rhetoric (on the left and the right), we will witness, within the next 20 years, the Latinamericanization of the US, with all its ugly consequences.

Sadly, the ones that call for a smaller, more effective government, control of the deficit and respect of individual freedoms, are not "appealing" to the unsophisticated masses. Just like in Latin America.

Zhouzhou_1

I absolutely despise Newt. I'd rather see Mitt elected. Or Barack again. Or Ron maybe, or just anybody else other than Newt. I can't stand him personally, and I have no sympathy with any of his policy (I could identify so far) either.

Yet I fail to see any racism here other than on the side of the media. The man has a warehouse full of corpses and the best you got is that he called a tv moderator 'lazy' ?

Would it have been racism if the tv moderator happened to be hispanic instead? or asian? or white? I wonder where the real racists are here.

Zhouzhou_1 in reply to Paul G.

Thanks for replying to tell me I'm too stupid to understand (in coded language), but I am not convinced: If you need a codebook (or the right passport) to find out somebody was racist, it hardly qualifies as good, convincing political argument.

It might be hard to believe, but non-Americans also know and use "coded language", and to me its much easier to understand than the rules of Baseball. Yet, if you have the impression somebody is lazy, but can't say so because of the alleged lazy persons skin color, the political correctness at work strikes me as racist, not the unelectable Newt.

Paul G.

You're saying, in short, that Southern white evangelicals care only for what a candidate *says*, not what he does.

That Gingrich has a repulsive personal character and is an unrepentent serial sinner and megalomaniac is beside the point. That he was dumped by his own party as Speaker for his obnoxiousness, erraticism and ineffectiveness is likewise beside the point. Only that he can scream the loudest and hew to the far-right litmus tests.

Romney, on the other hand, is a Mormon. Ewwww. Never mind that he actually behaves decently in public and private. (Well ... except for being a poster child for everything that's wrong with the American tax system and crony capitalism.)

Likewise Obama, who is a model father and husband, not to mention genuinely Christian in his values and behavior toward others. But he's black. And he believes that government can serve to help people. And he's articulate and well educated. Three strikes, so he's out. I am stunned by the amount of *hate* I see toward this guy.

Quite ironic, really. It continues to astound me that these people truly believe that just by hating gays, criminalizing abortion, and screaming about how Christian they are, they will somehow *be* Christian. All while eliminating taxes for the rich so the rich can get richer. I can think of few things less Christian.

Handworn in reply to Paul G.

Paul, so long as you cast it as anything so populist and simpleminded as "eliminating taxes for the rich so the rich can get richer," you will never understand it. The rich get richer because they have perceived correct ideas about how the world works, and if you succeed in changing the world, they'll perceive that and continue to get rich in this new way. You'll be typically astounded to learn that that has occurred. "Christian" doesn't mean "stealing from the rich to make up for the ignorance, stupidity and self-delusion of others."

But then again, as has been said, anyone who robs Peter to pay Paul can always count upon the support of Paul.

Otiose555

I see The Economist buys into the Dem view that disagreeing/criticizing a Black person must be racism at work.

Spectacularj1 in reply to Otiose555

That isn't the view of TE, and the reason that so many people hold the view that racism is behind much of the opposition against the president is because Obama's record as president simply does not support the virulent hatred that right-wingers have for him.

The president has been a centrist, republicans should be happy that he isn't an actual liberal. If anyone has reason to be dissatisfied with him it is the left. Since his record doesn't support the hatred where could it possibly come from? His race and ethnic background are the 2 most likely candidates, if you disagree then please enlighten me.

Melissia in reply to HealthySkepticism

"The administration argued the Arizona law, which requires state and local police to investigate the immigration status of anyone they reasonably suspect of being an illegal immigrant, is unconstitutional and would sap law enforcement resources."

Both of these statements are true.

Handworn in reply to Spectacularj1

Obama is a centrist in an era when both parties have developed less of an interest in compromising. The Left has gone further leftward in insisting on imposing so-called "Obamacare" on an extraordinarily dubious country and based on the tiniest of majorities, and the Right, thoroughly fed up with the "liberal ratchet," no longer cares to be centrists if compromise with the Left means nothing more than a slower drift leftward than liberal extremists can imagine.

Garaboncias

Just out of sheer curiosity. Does anyone know what kinds of odds the bookies in the UK give Newt to get the nomination; and becoming the next POTUS ? It would be interesting/amusing to know what kind of image Newt projects in the UK. It is illegal to bet on these sorts of competitions here, in the US, but for the sport of it, I am giving Newt 1 : 10 to get the nomination; and 1 : 1 000 000 to be the next POTUS.

Jimmy Gatts

You write :"He (Mitt Romney) did not get rich by robbing banks. Too bad, that would have made him more popular than making money in private equity.

dunnhaupt

If Gingrich should actually make it to November, the traditional antiintellectual American voters are going to experience something that never happened before in US history: TWO intellectual ideologists battling it out!

Nige_2 in reply to dunnhaupt

Gingrich is not as intellectual as he was ten years ago. He has gotten bogged down in many stupid ideological far right spectacles such as the world trade centre mosque fiasco and generally his pragmatism has slipped. He's a different man, and that will shine through should he ever get the chance to go up against Obama. Further his anger, which in a primary is a plus, as it echoes the anger of the republicans, will seem petulant and childish compared to a calm incumbent Obama. So whether his strength in the primaries will carry on to a presidential race, is questionable, but certainly Gingrich won't be coming across as an intellectual, he'll come across as a firebrand

Melissia in reply to Nige_2

I think that's about right. Newt will make himself come across as the fiery, passionate conservative who hates everything that isn't conservative, while Obama will be able to push himself as the calm, collected, and rational person who can fix the problems our country is facing.

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In this blog, our correspondents share their thoughts and opinions on America's kinetic brand of politics and the policy it produces. The blog is named after the study of American politics and society written by Alexis de Tocqueville, a French political scientist, in the 1830s

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