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Winners and losers

Jan 16th 2012, 15:31 by The Economist online

How have the world's big economies fared since 2007?

AS MANY rich economies face recession this year, it is interesting to compare how output per person has changed in the world's big economies since 2007, just before the financial crisis hit. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit’s forecasts, people in Britain, America, France and Japan will be less well-off in 2012 than they were in 2007. In Britain, real GDP per person will drop by more than 5% compared with its pre-crisis level. Germany and the BRIC countries are doing better. India’s real output per person is forecast to be 34% higher this year than it was in 2007; the increase in China will be over 50%.

Readers' comments

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all seeing eye

Growth rates don't say much about how rich or poor a country is at the moment. If a country had one bullock cart as trasportation, and somehow managed to get another by the end of the year, it would be richer by 100%, whereas if Japan installed 20 more bullet trains, it won't affect their groth rate much.

I would love to see the ecohnomist coming up with Charts about the really poor countries. It must be real uncomfortable for most the readers to acknowledge exacly HOW poor people can be, but, that is a reality most people are living with. People who won't ever get a glimps of charts discussing how poor(!) the rich countries consider themselves to be. :)

PEI Mama

Maybe it was already mentioned in the comments section, but I wonder where Canada is in this chart?

We are fairing better than all the G7 countries.

Thanks!

Carlos A. Rossi

With the exception of Germany, it is the highly indebted oil consuming import dependent nations that will fare the worst, because high energy costs implies smaller possibilities of growth and therefore smaller future that threatens loan repayment and bank solvency. Its time to consider another Coppenhagen treaty that brings the energy issue front and center in economic modeling in the functions of production, consumption, growth and monetary creation; i.i. The Energy Within Economics for Human Prosperity.

Vive_chimie

The title to the chart is "Real GDP per person".

Sorry to have to ask such an elementary question; what is "real" GDP and how does it differ from plain vanilla GDP?
Does the chart just show changes to GDP after the effects of inflation have been removed?

nkab

There are no winners or losers from this chart IMO.

Given that resources of Mother Earth is somewhat finite, nations of FUGJB (er that’s France, USA, Germany, Japan, Britain) may have just approaching or reached the point of diminishing return, being developed in economy and all, while less economically developed nations of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) each still has plenty of headroom for growth. It’s only fair that they do.

Pacer in reply to nkab

Yes fair, but detrimental to the economies that would prefer to keep the outsized share of earth's resources they have become quite accustomed to.

Too late to put the genie back in the bottle, however. See the article on airborne bird flu for long-term sustainability solutions.

AtlantisKing

Amazing that a simple chart can get the kooks from beneath their rocks to generate odd statements. I took the trouble of reading nearly all comments to this article and here are my reactions to some recurrent themes:

1. A lot of people cannot distinguish between a graph of growth from a chart of absolute value. These are rates of change people, not actual values, people! The U.S., Europe and Japan are all a lot richer than Russia and Brazil and vastly more so than India and China.

2. Related to that point, a number of posters expressing surprise that standard of living appears higher in the richer countries and that so many people want to emigrate to them. It should be obvious: it's a consequence of the absolute level of income, not growth. Otherwise, Angola, which is growing 15% p.a. would be the main destination for immigrants

3. There were also a few comments announcing the inevitable decline of the West and the dominance of the East - in a couple of cases, attributed to "greed" or something similar. That's not even too much into the chart; it's pure (unfounded) speculation. The rise of the BRICS and "the East" is mostly driven by demographics - a whole lot of people, with incomes well below their potential, trying to realize that potential. Greed does play a part, but in the different direction - all the BRICs (and most of Asia has scuttled their socialist regimes or instruments and embraced capitalism (even if imperfectly, and not always called that). THAT is what's allowing people to reach their economic potential

4. Many comments implying that Germany is guilty of something - it'd have "unfairly" benefitted from the Euro, presumably on the backs of those countries now in financial trouble. Oh, pleeease! This is fiction! Germany has been a top 5 exporter forever, even during the (very strong) D-Mark era. And the Euro took a ride from the D-mark strength, not the other way around. Germans are doing well because they are well educated, have superb technology, strong work ethic and (comparatively) frugal lifestyles

ZdKYBFShaQ

A good indication for jobs heading to the East!!!
I hope it will take more years before we see the BRICS low wages with high productivity to turn to high wage with the high productivity.

happyfish18 in reply to ZdKYBFShaQ

From my personal experience in a booming economy, young people in China are going to get frustrated. Wages may go up rapidly but other things like properties etc. will rush up even faster.

Already we are seeing that young ladies are not prepared to get married unless their young men can afford to buy their own apartments.

ZdKYBFShaQ in reply to happyfish18

My thanks for sharing us your observation! Ok, from what you said its already started...

China, in my opinion, will do fine in terms of lower wage for a while. But will it be 2030 or 2045 or 2097 to reach the balance (where lower wage advantage level)with the rest of the developed world? I believe in low wage means low productivity and high productivity to lead to high wage.

Kobekimi

Well,GDP cann't stand for everything.For example,the sense of happiness.I am a Chinese who live in Shanghai.There is no denying that the economy has developed rapidly recent years.But,an increasing number of people in China become slaves of house,credit cards and marriage.In Shanghai,we need to pay more than 2millions RMB to buy a big and good house.With the same amount money,we can buy a far more better house in America.It's really hard for ordinary people to afford a house.I think many people in China put great emphasis on material enjoyment.They don't know the true meaning of life.Above all,the west regions of China are still very poor.China have to solve many serious problems,especially corruption and social morality.I can say,China still has a long way to go.Don't just judge by the GDP and economy.

soffina

India - high inflation, slow government, poverty et all but still the consumer and business confidence and morale is high. This story explains it. But a long way to go still ....

Best wishes

Kishore Nair from Mumbai

mfoppa

Although BRICs showed greater relative increases, it is inquestionable the much higher absolut background developed countries are coming from.

Macrocompassion

Now perhaps one of our experts will explain the reason for this big difference in national productivity and prosperity? Actually I think I already know the answer and it is because of the greater working opportunities offered to entrepreneurs and businesses in the places where the natural resources are more easily accessed and made available, without having to pay land owners large costs for the "priviledge".

This effect could be reduced if the less prosperous countries would tax land values instead of incomes and products. Land would cease to be held unused and its cost of use would drop. Demand for goods would simultaneously rise and the speculators whom benefit from the taxed money invested in the infra-structure, would have to work for their livings!

Ghentis

China's 50%+ growth looks really impressive, but it doesn't even come close to matching the growth in property prices over the same period. Sure the Chinese might have higher salaries, but they're also paying 100%+ more for housing.

swift swallow

we china is still some 30 to 40 years lagged behind the unite states,it a long way for chinese people to catch up with the developed world!

happyfish18

All this figures can be meaningless to most of the Poor struggling souls.

In fact, Mamohan Singh says that the country should be ashamed that 40% of his people are still hungry everyday. 10% or 150 million Chinese are still living below poverty line.

rushiwowen

It is a very interesting thing.Do China is the fast increasing country ? I don't think that people have benefit from the Reform and Opening.Are you kidding me?I feel the life is very bad.Most of the people live for dinner,just few dinner for live.

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