Deeper and Deeper in Afghanistan

"Remnants of an Army"

Coming on the heels of the Qur'an-burning debacle, the killing of 16 Afghan civilians by an American NCO compounds the deepening problem the US faces in Afghanistan. These presumably unrelated incidents simply make it harder to see how US efforts to disengage and draw down for a peaceful and stable transfer of power can work. Increasingly, the US forces are finding themselves under siege.

As Bruce Riedel notes, the incidents also complicate efforts to initiate some kind of diplomatic dialogue. And, of course, they have gotten injected into the US political debate as well.

Fortuitously or perhaps serendipitously, The Washington Post just had a review by David Isby of Diana Preston's new book The Dark Defile,  a popular work about the British debacle of the retreat from Kabul in the First Afghan War in 1842. A British and Indian Army of some 4,500 and up to 12,00 wives, accompanying civilians left Kabul. On January 13, Dr. William Brydon rode alone into Jalalabad 90 miles away. When asked where the Army was, he is said to have replied, "I am the Army." A few other stragglers also survived, but Dr. Brydon's arrival alone at Jalalabad became a famous symbol of the disaster, commemorated in Lady Butler's once famous painting, Remnants of an Army (above).

It was one of those great disastrous defeats, like Balaclava or Isandhlwana, that Victorian-era Britain managed to find worthy of heroic memory despite the fact that large numbers of people died due to incompetence of the commanders (Wellington used the term "imbecility" for Elphinstone in the retreat from Kabul). And no, I don't think the US is going to leave Kabul the way Elphinstone did — at least I hope not. But being of a generation that remembers people clinging to the strut of a helicopter taking off from the roof of the US Embassy in Saigon, I worry that incidents such as the Qur'an burning or the latest massacre, which alienate the very people whose hearts and minds we're supposedly fighting for, will not be survivable.

The Gaza Fighting

Gideon Levy in Haaretz reminds us that what really started the latest bloody round of rockets-into-southern-Israel/Israeli bombings of Gaza was an Israeli targeted killing inside Gaza. That sort of provocation tends to get lost in the shuffle as the whole thing is presented as retaliation for the rocket fire against Israel, but it's a reminder that these quid-pro-quo exchanges of fire ultimately become a self-sustaining cycle. Not that there's an easy way to defuse the cycle, but neither Israelis in southern Israel nor Gazans in Gaza want to live under constant threat. The latest round started with a targeted killing, as Levy notes, but it's hard to find that in most American newspapers. (And, yes, most Arab media fail to mention the rockets into Israel.)

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/way-to-go-idf-1.417750

"Idiot's Guide to Egyptian Presidential Elections"

I'm feeling under the weather today so posting may be light. Let's start with Ahram Online's "Idiot's Guide to Egypt's Presidential Elections," a good guide for the perplexed now that the electoral season is actually under way. There are still a lot of questions about how much power the President will exercise, but those who are overly dismissive of the process are, I think, missing the point that however imperfect, something new is emerging in Egypt. The Parliament's talk of voting no-confidence in the Ganzouri cabinet, something it most likely lacks the authority to do (but who knows for sure?) is a sign of evolving legitimacy.

. . . And Tamazight Influence on Libyan Colloquial Arabic

While writing my immediately previous post on the Amazigh revival in Tunisia I stumbled across a link that involves several of this blog's odder little side interests: colloquial dialects, minority languages, and language generally: a series on "Amazigh Words in Libyan [Colloquial Arabic] Dialect."  It's written in Arabic and this is actually installment number 12. I had trouble finding earlier examples on that site but an Arabic search (cut and paste ألكلمات الأمازيغية في اللهجة الليبية if you like) shows that it's apparently been appearing on several other websites as well.

UPDATE: As a commenter notes below, the article tends to find Amazigh sources for all sorts of Arabic words, some obviously from Italian. This is the kind of excessive linguistic chauvinism that led Qadhafi to insist Tamazight was just an Arabic dialect, and has led to other Arab nationalists claiming an Arabic origin for Tamazight, only reversed 180 degrees to find Amazigh roots everywhere. Still, it may be of interest.

Tunisian Amazigh Seeking Higher Profile

The first conference held in the city of Tunis seeking to promote greater awareness of  Tunisian Amazigh ("Berber") culture and language has been held, the latest step in growing Amazigh activism in Tunisia. The Sixth World Amazigh Congress was held in Djerba in October, the first time it had assembled in that country.

With far fewer Tamazight speakers than Morocco or Algeria or even Libya, Tunisian Imazighen have enjoyed little awareness among their countrymen; while most North Africans may well be of Amazigh ancestry, the language is spoken in Tunisia today only on the island of Djerba and a few small localities in the south of the country. Besides those four countries, Amazigh languages are also spoken in the Siwa Oasis of Egypt and in Mauritania as well as among the Tuareg across a wide swath of the Saharan countries.

Amazigh Flag

But Tunisian activism has been growing.  A cultural association was formed last year and increasingly,  activists have been getting more press coverage; activist Ines Fezzani, quoted in the last link, is active on Twitter (@TunisianAmazigh) and on the "Reviving Amazigh Identity Facebook page, which covers news from all the Maghreb countries. There's a Tunisian-specific Amazigh website (in French) from the town of Tamazret here.

And here's a music video with photos celebrating the Imazighen of Tunisia.

Tawfiq Okasha and Today's Clashes at US Embassy in Cairo

A rabble-rousing right-wing talk show host has been stirring up trouble. No, not that one: don't be so US-centric. I'm talking about Egypt's Tawfiq Okasha, who seems to have provoked today's clashes between pro-SCAF and anti-SCAF protesters outside the US Embassy in Cairo. Okasha, who as publicly supported the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces and denounced the release of the detained US and other foreign NGO workers, urged protests against the US Embassy and support for SCAF. (Yes, SCAF gets $1.3 billion from the US annually. Yes, there's no way the NGO workers could have left Egypt without SCAF signing off on it, but since no one has publicly admitted to lifting the travel ban, it must have been a plot. Don't try to be too analytical here: it will give you headaches.) Anyway, a pro-SCAF, anti=American protest assembles outside the Embassy, demanding the "deportation" of the US Ambassador (to Israel, since Israel had to enter in somewhere here).

Now, today is also the anniversary of March 9 last year, when the Army broke up the Tahrir sit-ins and carried out the infamous "virginity tests". So the anti-SCAF revolutionaries were also out in force, at Tahrir. Those readers who know Cairo will know the US Embassy compound is in Garden City, just a block or two off Tahrir Square. So the pro-SCAF and anti-SCAF protest crowds were in close proximity, and both sides have anti-American elements in them. Then Okasha showed up outside the Embassy:

News of Okasha’s arrival infuriated some Tahrir protesters, who headed to the embassy to voice their objections. At first, minor skirmishes broke out between the two sides, but later in the evening, clashes were reignited and escalated to rock throwing, resulting in minor injuries.

The general tone of Okasha and his supporters is captured in the Daily News Egypt report linked above:

Okasha had addressed protesters near the embassy, saying, “The American ambassador was trained by American Intelligence on America’s plan to divide the Arab countries. The United States plans to split Arab countries from 22 to 44.”
His supporters demanded the deportation of the US ambassador, chanting: “We want the ambassador out of our country and we support the SCAF,” “Field Marshal Tantawi, deport the American ambassador to Israel” and “We don’t need the American aid.”
Ashraf Galal, a plant manager, told Daily News Egypt, “Everyone should know that the American embassy accommodates a criminal mob aiming to divide Egypt. America is a county of piracy and we are here to pressure the embassy to stop interfering in Egyptian affairs.”
“I demand cutting all ties with the United States; the current disorder among Egyptians is one of its plans” Galal added.
Yehia Mohamed, a former army officer, said, “America meddled in Egypt’s judicial system by allowing the release of the accused Americans. The ambassador is helping Israel destroy Egypt.”

The often heard interpretation of everything that has happened in the past year as being part of a cunning US and Israeli plot. Though these quotes leave out  both Iran and the Freemasons, who are sometimes also invoked. (I know: why would the US and Israel scheme to bring the Muslim Brotherhood to power? Ah, but if it makes no sense at all, that proves just how insidious a plot it really is.)

Some video from Daily News Egypt:



Blogger Zeinobia has more on today's events as well.
http://egyptianchronicles.blogspot.com/2012/03/us-embassy-clashes-lets-pray-that.html#.T1pxIwXWA3k.twitter

On the Introduction of the Phrase "Nuclear Duck" to Policy Debates

BBC Iran correspondent James Reynolds ponders Bibi Netanyahu's remark:

"Ladies and Gentlemen, if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then what is it?" Mr Netanyahu asked. "That's right, it's a duck - but this duck is a nuclear duck. And it's time the world started calling a duck a duck."

 The old "If it walks like a duck" analogy is examined at some length and then Reynolds concludes:

Now Mr Netanyahu has used the phrase in Washington. It was perhaps only time before someone decided that the hitherto silent victim deserved a right of reply.
"I've never been so humiliated in all my life," says Daffy Duck in a video mash-up of Mr Netanyahu's speech posted on YouTube, "Quack, quack."

Here's the video in question at YouTube, at least until the Looney Tunes people claim infringement:



Reynolds raises an obvious point about the overused duck metaphor, but I'm struck by the coining of a new phrase here, "nuclear duck." At first it evokes something even more sinister than "backpack nukes": the true WMD, a Waterfowl of Mass Destruction.

I don't mean to be flippant about a serious subject (oh, alright, I do), but it's also a fact that the duck imagery usually gets employed when you're a bit short on hard evidence, so you resort to accusing your antagonist of being ducklike. (This could be considered fowl play. Sorry.) So is time for a serious Marxist analysis. Don't worry: I don't mean Karl.

Ducks and war, of course, should bring to the mind of ever literate person that classic philosophical meditation on diplomacy, war, and futility, the Marx Brothers' immortal Duck Soup (1933). Now, it's true that, beyond its title, Duck Soup has absolutely nothing to do with ducks, but that makes as much sense as the rest of it.

Unfortunately I can't find the classic battle scenes online, but the "We're going to war!" production number is, and sadly, it reminds me all too much of the present mood:

R. K. Ramazani: Iran Should Make a Gesture Now

R.K. Ramazani, Professor Emeritus at the University of Virginia and the Dean of Iranian Foreign Policy Studies in this country, offers a suggestion to break the current impasse. Iran should "make a constructive offer now, before negotiations resume," even though some may view it as a surrender.

But Iran has shown before that it is capable of innovative moves without the fear of losing face. It voluntarily suspended uranium enrichment for about two years when it was negotiating with the EU-3 (Britain, France and Germany). An Iranian conciliatory offer now would put to shame those who view Iran as “messianic” and “irrational” and would also honor the ancient Iranian value of “pragmatic wisdom” (hekmat-e amaly).

The prseent leadership aren't known for taking Ruhi Ramazani's advice, but perhaps they should think about it. If somebody doesn't break the spiral soon, someone could easily miscalculate.

Full disclosure: Professor Ramazani's close ties to The Middle East Institute date from the 1950s at least, and he is a dear personal friend, so I'm biased on this, but I wanted to share it.

"GOP to Nominate Netanyahu": Not the Onion, but Purim

The headline would be expected from The Onion: "GOP to nominate PM [Netanyahu] as US Presidential Candidate." Nor is it April Fool's Day, but it is Purim.

On a more serious Purim note, Marsha B. Cohen takes on Netanyahu's gift of the Book of Esther to Obama: "When Bad History Makes Bad Policy."

On Learning Arabic

This piece at Slate about the difficulties of learning Arabic actually is pretty good; at least the article didn't sign up for a course and decide after a month that it was too difficult, and then write a complaining article; he clearly has enough knowledge of the language to write intelligently about it. And an appreciation of the differences between the literary and colloquial languages. I could quibble about a point or two here and there but it's probably a good piece for those thinking about tackling it: a bit cautionary (it isn't Spanish for American learners), but reasonable.

In my younger days I once worked for a while in a bookstore specialized in language learning, and a lot of customers were interested in Arabic. Oh, you know, something with tapes that will get me ready for a business trip; just enough to get around and read a newspaper. Good luck: those are quite distinct tasks, and at least as I was taught it, it took a good part of the first year to master the grammar enough to look words up in the dictionary. (They're listed under the triliteral root, so you need to know the grammar: no simply looking them up alphabetically.) But after decades with the language, I can assure you that it really is possible and, yes, worth the effort. Just remember its not an Indo-European language. The author of the article has a fellow student in his class from Israel and notes, of course, that he has a leg up from the start, since Hebrew has a similar structure.

Purim Greetings

Purim starts at sundown, so Purim greetings to my Jewish readers. The ironies of this particular holiday falling at a time of deep Israeli-Iranian tensions may not be lost on anyone, but it's a holiday of celebration, so enjoy it.

Tomorrow: International Women's Day in Cairo This Year Has Special Resonance

Tomorrow, March 8, marks International Women's Day, but in Egypt it has other symbolism as well, since it marks a year since the demonstrations that led to the now notorious "virginity tests" that have become a rallying cry for women's rights and a black eye for the military regime. (March 16, on the other hand, is Egyptian Women's Day, marking the famous protest by women during the 1919 Revolution.) Tomorrow will be marked by a women's march to the Journalists' s Syndicate (poster at left). It seeks greater political representation after relatively few women were elected to Parliament.

Actually, at the International Women's Day last year women were harassed and cursed;  it was at the broader Tahrir Square Friday demonstrations the next day, March 9, that the first "virginity tests" were reported.http://mideasti.blogspot.com/2011/03/moment-for-outrage-abuse-of-women-in.html Throughout the troubled past year women have frequently been in the crossfire (sometimes literally, always figuratively), memorably including the searing photos of the beating and stripping of the "blue bra woman" that led US Secretary of State Clinton to denounce "the systematic degradation of women,"  Samira Ibrahim's legal fight against the Army, journalist MonaElTahawy's beating, groping and broken arms, culminating in the powerful Women's March in December. Nor, of course, is this a complete catalog of the violence inflicted on women, not just as part of the revolutionary upheaval, but as part of daily life. I've also sought to note the historical roles of Hoda Sha‘arawi, and of the first women's demonstration during the Uprising of 1919.

It has been a turbulent year for Egypt as a whole and particularly for Egyptian women, who have, however, made their voices heard. As did their great-great-grandmothers in that earlier revolution of 1919.

Women Demonstrating in 1919

The Apocryphal Tale of "Winston's Hiccup"

Anyone with an interest in the history of the post-World War I settlement in the Middle East has probably run across the tale of "Winston's hiccup": the legend that the odd, zigzag boundary between Jordan and Saudi Arabia is the result of Winston Churchill's having indulged in his usual extensive brandy consumption before creating the Emirate of Transjordan on a map in 1921. This online New York Times piece retells the tale and, of course, the spoilsport notes that it's apocryphal. (Though not emphasized here, if you think about it, when Transjordan was created the boundary at least partially, would have been between Transjordan, ruled by ‘Abdullah ibn al-Husayn, and the Kingdom of Hejaz, ruled by his father Sharif Hussein. It was the Saudi conquest of the Hejaz in the mid-1920s that made it a sensitive border.) It was later trading off access to Aqaba versus the Wadi Sirhan that created the odd shape.

For those who don't know the story, of course, it's worth a retelling. It's one of those apocryphal tales in history that should have been true, even if it's apocryphal. (Napier should have announced the conquest of Sindh by sending the message "Peccavi" — Latin for "I have sinned" — even though the story was invented by Punch and Napier knew little Latin. The story is too good to stop telling, though. And Ethan Allen must have replied to the British commander at Fort Ticonderoga, when asked in what authority he demanded its surrender, "In the Name of the Great Jehovah and the Continental Congress!", even though our other witness, the British commander, remembered the conversation differently.)

It's still hard to look at the map zigzags and say "oh, they traded Aqaba for the Wadi Sirhan." It's still "Winston's hiccup" that will come to mind.

AUC Professor on Keeping the Graffiti Walls

 I've posted previously on the extreaornarily creative wall paintings (really too sophisticated to keep calling "graffiti" along the walls of the American University in Cairo's downtown campus, paintings which went up after the Port Said football massacre. Blogger "suzeeinthecity" had already issued a plea to preserve them. Now it appears that the university is indeed moving "to preserve the current images, life-size, in another medium so that they might be later displayed."

While the exact method of preserving them isn't spelled out in the linked article, this is clearly a Good Thing. Congratulations to AUC.

Libya's East Seeking Geater Autonomy

Libya's eastern region,which was the birthplace and driving force in the uprising against Qadhafi, is seeking some sort of semi-autonomy within Libya, complaining of decades of neglect. Local leaders are setting up a regional council for self-government.

The area centered around Benghazi was known as Cyrenaica during the years of Italian rule, and was proclaimed by Idris al-Senusi as the Emirate of Cyrenaica in 1949-51. When it joined with Tripolitania and the Fezzan to become the Kingdom of Libya, Idris became King, so that eastern influence was considerable under the monarchy. After the King's overthrow in 1969, Qadhafi favored the west and came to see the east as a center for dissidence. In the end, it became the engine of his overthrow.

It remains to be seen exactly what sort of "semi-autonomy" the easterners (Cyrenaicans or Barqawis are among the names in use)  have in mind, but — combined with continuing quarrels among competing militias, especially in the west around Tripoli — the move could further fuel concerns about the country coming apart. The east controls the oilfields and ports, among other key resources.

Another account here, and here is Al Jazeera English's report:

Salafi's Parliamentary Career Ended by Nose Job

Ahram Online

You may already have heard about the Member of Parliament from Egypt's Salafi Al-Nour Party has lost his party membership and probably his seat over a nose job. Even if it weren't for the fact that hardcore Salafis consider nose jobs haram (who knew? messing with the natural order, I guess?) he claimed that his bandages were due to his being set upon and beaten (as has happened to some politicians). So he was also caught in a lie.

Just as Caesar's wife must be above suspicion, I guess ultra-Salafis like Al-Nour can't get away with lying (not that politicians have ever been known to lie, of course), especially about plastic surgery. Which they're apparently not supposed to have, anyway. The Egyptian sense of humor being pretty well-developed, I'm sure there are going to be jokes about this.

Ahram Online

One final thought: looking at his nose before the operation (right), I can see why he might have wanted a nip and tuck, but did he really think it wouldn't be noticeable?

And the punch line, from the first link above:

The most dangerous and little-noticed consequence of this scandal is the detail that the police had indeed arrested five suspects in the case -- for a crime that never happened. Anyone in Egypt can tell you that they would have been made to confess to the crime, too -- a reminder that police reform is long overdue. Such reform is urgently needed not only to stem the present (real) crime wave in Egypt, but also to protect the rights of all citizens, be they innocent, suspects, or convicted criminals.

They rounded up the usual suspects.

Please Don't Let This Be a Portent

Prime Minister  Netanyanu gave President Obama a copy of the Book of Esther after their summit.  Let us hope this is purely because Purim starts Wednesday, and not because by the end of the book, 75,000 Persians have been killed.

Can Iranian Elections Results Help Ease Nuclear Tensions?

Iran's elections, though there will be a runoff round, seem to have represented a solid win for conservative supporters of Supreme Leader Khamenei and a sharp setback for President Ahmadinejad. While many in the West tend to dismiss the elections because the candidates were restricted, essentially, to the establishment elites with the opposition, even the Green opposition who were a force three years ago, out of the running. But within their own restricted parameters, they do presumably give us a metric for the relative strength of those factions who were allowed into the game. Within those limits, the long-simmering power struggle between supporters of the Supreme Leader and of Ahmadinejad seems to have been decided firmly on the Leader's side of the scales.

What, if anything, does this mean for the crisis over Iran's nuclear program and a possible Israeli and/or US attack? Juan Cole points to a recent speech by Khamenei in which he said (reiterated, really) that nuclear weapons use is against Islamic principles and again insisted Iran is not working on a weapon; Cole sees the setback for Ahmadinejad as a sign that Khamenei is asserting control and may defuse the issue. It's a useful point, though as Juan well knows this whole issue has more to do with perceptions and fears than with actual or immediate threats. I do, however, think (or perhaps "hope" would be the better word) that there is a real chance that the election results could lead to lower heat, at least for the near term.

Here's why. First of all, I think that tensions on both sides have escalated in part due to the domestic political pressures in all three  players: it's an election year in the US of course, and the Parliamentary elections in Iran, just held, led to posturing by the protagonists in the power struggle there. The prsesure isn't so acute in Israel, since the next Knesset elections aren't required until 2013,but if Netanyahu feels his position is strong he may call early elections if he thinks he can strengthen his position(remember that Likud ran behind Kadima in 2009 and has had to depend on a coalition mostly to its own right).

Add to this all the rhetoric surrounding the AIPAC convention and the Netanyahu visit to Washington, which has raised the pressure: nonetheless, much of the rhetoric is ritualistic, though none the less potentially dangerous.

But remember that Ahmadinejad has done more to fuel tensions over the nuclear program than Khamenei has. When President Obama at AIPAC called Iran a Holocaust-denying country that threatened to wipe Israel off the map, he was quoting Ahmadinejad (though some say on the second point it's misquoting). Now, Ahmadinejad has no control over defense and security issues; that's always reserved to the Supreme Leader, but his rhetoric has handed weapons to those eager to launch an attack,whether in Israel or the US.

But now Ahnmadinejad seems to have been weakened in Parliament, and (one must not forget), he is term-limited and will step down next year. With no elections ahead for him, perhaps his incendiary rhetoric will be dampened a bit.

All of this is, of course, little more than a hope. The crisis has not been driven by facts, so a change in facts may or may not have any impact. But the arguments against military action given the potentially huge and unforeseeable blowbacks remain unchanged, as — so far as is known — do the doubts o the Israeli military and intelligence establishments.  In any event, the Iranian electoral results do not increase the likelihood of conflict; and they might even reduce it.

"Egyptian Student Abroad" Blog

I wanted to call to your attention the Egyptian Student Abroad blog/website, which has essays and articles by (can you guess it?), Egyptian students abroad (mostly in the US and Canada from what I've seen). It addresses many of the sorts of issues I've addressed here and is of course Egyptian-oriented. I should also note that the Editor, Adel El-Adawy, is a graduate student at The American University here in DC, and is also interning as a Research Assistant with us here at the Middle East Institute this semester.

More Nostalgia: Pictures of Old Beirut

In just the past week I've done several posts on nostalgia sites with old pictures of the Middle East; those have been heavily weighted toward Cairo and Egypt, so it's only fair for some equal time: a Tumblr site with pictures of Old Beirut.

Many are from the fifties, but some from the seventies. Anyone who remembers Beirut pre-civil war should enjoy it.