It’s been a big day in Egypt. Results were reported this morning, and as expected Shafiq and Mursi will be participating in a run off next month. The voting breakdown, taken from the Independent, is as follows:
According to SPEC figures, the five front-running candidates (and their respective votes) were as follows:
Reports are coming in that Shafiq’s headquarters were ransacked and burned, as well as protestors being attacked by unknown assailants. It’s a worrying start to round two of the elections.
My Twitter feed today has been 90% Egypt-related. I was not particularly surprised to hear that it will be a contest between Shafiq and Mursi. It will be an interesting month to say the least.
Mursi was initially mocked as a ‘back up’ candidate for the Brotherhood, so his finish as the top candidate, with 25% of the vote, demonstrates the political muscle of the organization. He has already made it clear that his, and the Brotherhood’s, “dream’ for the electorate is the implementation of sharia law. Christians and non-Islamists are reportedly dismayed at the success of his campaign.
For his part, Shafiq, who was Mubarak’s last premier, garnered 23% of the vote, according to Reuters. It is that that revolutionaries and Islamists are likely to be unhappy with his sudden surge in popularity.
It seems that the two more radical campaigners were victorious at the expense of more centrists candidates. I’m not convinced that a government formed by either man will be considered legitimate by a majority of the population.
The polls have officially closed in Egypt’s landmark presidential elections. The voting, which took place today and yesterday, was relatively uneventful and largely unfettered by violence, although there have been numerous claims of irregularities.
At this point, there are no reliable polls predicting the victor, although it seems likely that the elections will go to runoffs. A runoff vote will be held June 16-17 if no single candidate receives more than 50% of the votes, a feat which would be surprising given that the field consists of 13 candidates. Preliminary results are expected to be released over the weekend, and the final totals will be available Tuesday. Egypt Elects will keep you updated as the votes are counted.
From what I’m gathering on Twitter and Egypt’s MSM, voting today seems uneventful, aside from a slap fight that broke out between reps from Fotouh and Shafiq’s campaigns.
Voting will again continue until 9 PM tonight.Egyptian Authorities have declared today a holiday to allow government workers to vote.
There are some reports that the turn-out today is weaker than it was yesterday and overall it continues to be much weaker than the recent parliamentary elections, but EE will hold off on speculation until a more clear report of the numbers come in. As with yesterday, turn out will probably increase in the evening.
The polls today were extended until 9 PM to give more people a chance to vote, a smart move on the part of electoral officials. It was only after the sun went down that voting increased. Estimates have placed turnout at 40-50% in the bigger cities.
There was no clear front runner from today. All of the top contenders have released claims as to who they believe to be in the lead, but none of these are considered reliable. In fact, it’s likely that they are deliberately wrong in an attempt to encourage voting one way or another.
As Egypt heads to the polls today, its important to keep in mind that this election may result in a run-off, which will be settled in elections a month from now. There is almost no way to predict what the outcome of this round of elections will be. I’ve read different reports leaning towards Shafiq, Moussa and Morsi all just this morning.
In terms of electoral violence and complaints, this election is running far smoother than recent parliamentary elections. While mainstream media reports from Western news outlet are talking about two block lines and a high voter turn out, the Twittersphere, as of 7:00 AM East Coast time, was wondering why turn out wasn’t higher and attributing it to the heat. Egyptians indicated it was likely the number of voters would increase as the day progressed, and as of 11:00 AM East Coast time, Moussa’s press guy claimed that Morsi was in first place so far, but some pundits are speculating this is just to drive votes up for Moussa.
There are reports that Army officials are filming polling lines, and AFP has reported that one man was shot today, but it doesn’t appear to be escalating as no more news has come out about it. The Egypt Independent has reported that election violations were widespread but minor.
I’ve been reading a lot of the analysis today as it’s breaking, and there’s a lot of good stuff out there, but one I’d particularly like to point out is an article
in the Guardian by Jack Shenker, in which he states:
“You don’t have to move far from Tahrir to find these social cleavages. They aren’t packaged for primetime but remain deep, growing and fuelled by grievances that none of the presidential candidates know how to resolve within the existing political and economic apparatus. Islands of informal settlements dot the Nile whose residents battle security forces to avoid eviction – a government-orchestrated community clear-out to make way for financially speculative holiday resorts.”
It’s a good point. Social cleavages will be a particularly hard issue for Egypt to resolve under any single candidate.
Keep an eye out on Twitter on the #Egyelex hash tag, a lot of journalists tweeting to this one as they travel around polling stations.
Today the preliminary results of the expatriate vote were released, with the significant omission of votes from Saudi Arabia — home to over 50% of registered expat voters. The Saudi vote count is being withheld due to allegations of irregularities.
The preliminary results, which include over 150,000 votes from Egyptians living in over 60 countries across Africa, Asia, Europe, and North America, show that five front-runners have emerged: Abdel Moneim Abul-Fotouh, Mohamed Morsi, Amr Moussa, Hamdeen Sabbahi, and Ahmed Shafiq. The early success of Abul-Fotouh, Morsi, Moussa, and Shafiq comes as no surprise; however, Sabbahi’s rise in the polls has been relatively recent, and he has frequently been referred to as the “dark horse” candidate. Of these five, the preliminary expat results show Abul-Fotouh in the lead with nearly 30% of the expat vote; the Muslim Brotherhood’s Morsi follows with about 22%. Moussa and Sabbahi follow closely with a respective 20% and 17% of the vote, while Shafiq received just over 10%. It is far too early and the race is far too close to make many predictions, but it does seem that one of these five individuals will become Egypt’s next president: the only other candidate to receive over 1% of the expat vote (so far) is Mohamed Selim Al-Awa, with just 1.02%.
We aren't surprised by the voting results, but are curious about what it means for the general public if only 53% of the pop. voted #Egypt3 days ago