Gallup has released a report titled “After the Arab Uprisings: Women on Rights, Religion, and Rebuilding,” based on extensive polling in several Arab countries. Dalia Mogahed, executive director and senior analyst with the Gallup Center for Muslim Studies, presented the findings today.

For full event notes, continue reading below or click here for the PDF version. Read more…

Photo Credit: al-Arabiyya

The trial of 68 Kuwaiti youth activists and several MPs began Monday. The activists are being tried for storming the parliament building to demand the resignation of the prime minister last November, and face lengthy sentences. Additionally, the accused are charged with resisting police, unauthorised gathering and urging policemen to disobey orders, said defense lawyer,” Al Humaidi Al Subaie. The activists are among hundreds who assaulted the parliament on November 16 of last year, following clashes with security forces. The protests came after at least thirteen members of the parliament were accused of corruption.

Meanwhile, the Kuwaiti government submitted its resignation to the emir on Monday, the private al-Rai television channel reported, further deepening its continuing political crisis. There has been no official response to the resignation.  The move came just days after a court ruling that annulled February’s parliamentary elections and dissolved parliament, reinstating the previous, more regime-friendly government. The opposition responded to the ruling of the top court by scrapping legislative polls as “null and void” and politically motivated, urging a reversal of the decision to avoid “turmoil” in the country. “The constitutional court has exceeded its mandate and interfered in politics, granting itself powers above those entrusted to the head of state and the national assembly [parliament],” said a statement signed by 35 members of Kuwait’s dissolved parliament.

Photo Credit: AP

Egyptian president-elect Mohamed Morsi began talks to form a presidential team and cabinet that “would truly represent Egypt after the revolution” while the former cabinet announced its resignation. Morsi’s aides say he has already reached out to politicians from outside the Brotherhood for the new cabinet, such as reformist Mohamed ElBaradei, who has yet to publicly respond. In his victory speech on Sunday, Morsi urged Egyptians to unify, saying, “there is no room now for the language of confrontation.” Morsi is set to be sworn into office on June 30, though the location of the ceremony remains undecided. The Supreme Council of the Armed Force’s recent constitutional addendum states that the new president should be sworn in before the High Constitutional Court but a Muslim Brotherhood spokesman insisted Morsi would take his oath before parliament.

President Barack Obama congratulated Morsi for his win in the election and pledged “to support Egypt’s transition to democracy.” Press secretary Jay Carney said in a statement, “We believe it is essential for the Egyptian government to continue to fulfill Egypt’s role as a pillar of regional peace, security and stability.  And we will stand with the Egyptian people as they pursue their aspirations for democracy, dignity, and opportunity, and fulfill the promise of their revolution.”

Mark LeVine says that “Morsi’s win is a victory for the revolution” but James Corum writes, “the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt…embodies the conspiratorial worldview and authoritarian culture that are the true cause of the crisis now faced by Middle Eastern nations.” Finally, Mohsen Araishi accuses the “Islamists camping in Tahrir” of “acting like invaders” and warns that “the SCAF’s premature departure would definitely leave a security vacuum in the country.”

Photo Credit: CBS

Thirty-three Syrian soldiers defected to Turkey Sunday night, including two colonels and a general. The group is the latest in a series of recent defections to neighboring countries, bringing the total number of generals to defect to 13.

More details have emerged over Syria’s downing of a Turkish jet on Friday. According to an anonymous government source, Syria apparently also fired on a Turkish-flagged search and rescue plane deployed to find the downed aircraft, causing it to abandon its search and return to Turkey. Syria then offered to conduct a joint search operation, but only on the condition that the jet and its pilot would be detained in Syria for an investigation. Turkish authorities refused and have since conducted the operation on their own.

Meanwhile, E.U. foreign ministers condemned the Syrian attack at a meeting but said it is not grounds for military intervention. The German foreign minister reaffirmed their preference for a political solution and called de-escalation critical. This comes as Turkey summoned NATO envoys for a meeting in Ankara on Tuesday to discuss if the incident represents a violation of Turkey’s security and territorial integrity. Secretary Clinton also condemned the incident calling it a “brazen and unacceptable act” and promised to work with Turkey to hold Syria accountable.

In Syria, U.N. human rights investigator Paulo Pinheiro is meeting with top Syrian officials in Damascus to investigate claims of torture, executions, and crimes against humanity. Pinheiro is the first member of the U.N.’s Syria team to be allowed into the country. Pinheiro will return to Geneva to report his findings on Tuesday.

Also, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Israel Monday as part of a Middle East tour to discuss Syria as well as Russia’s business interests in the region. Putin will head to the Palestinian territories next to meet with Mahmud Abbas followed by King Abdullah in Jordan.

Additionally, the USAK Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies published a report on Turkey’s capacity as a regional power in the Middle East. The study argues that Turkey has an “expectations-capabilities gap,” in which its economic, diplomatic, and soft power currently fall short of the country’s aspirations as a role model and key player in the Middle East.

POMED’s Weekly Wire for June 25th is now available. This week includes coverage of the following top stories:

• Morsi Wins Egyptian Presidential Election

• Bahraini Opposition Leaders Injured in Protest

• Kuwait Parliament Dissolved after Suspension

• Campaigning Begins for Libyan Election

• New Government Formed in Syria

To continue reading the full Weekly Wire, click here.

Photo Credit: Ali Shuaib

Tunisia extradited Muammar Gaddafi‘s former prime minister Al Baghdadi Ali al-Mahmoudi Sunday, who is now the first former Gaddafi regime official to be returned to Libya for trial, Reuters reports. The move is a major victory for Libya’s transitional government that is eager to prove it can conduct fair trials of former regime figures. Libyan interim Prime Minister Abdurrahim El-Keib told reporters Mahmoudi was now being held in a Tripoli prision, saying the suspect is charged with “committing crimes against the Libyan people.” Mahmoudi fled to neighboring Tunisia after rebels took Tripoli last August, and staged a hunger strike in May to protest the extradition deal, fearing for his life as the sole holder of Libyan state secrets.

Meanwhile, the memoirs of  former Tunisian First Lady Leila Trabelssi were released, in which she admitted to “fatal mistakes” committed by her family. Trabelssi said her relatives, who were widely disliked, had abused privileges available to them as the family of the first lady. “Some of my relatives, especially younger ones,” she claimed, “got too greedy and wanted the maximum profit they could get.” Nevertheless, she insisted that some of their mistakes were deliberately blown out of proportion. “My relatives’ mistakes were exaggerated outside Tunisia for the purpose of toppling the regime,” Trabelssi claimed.

Additionally, Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali said Sunday that general elections in Tunisia may be held as early as March. The primary obstacle to moving the election process forward lies in the writing of a constitution. “I do hope that the new constitution will be ready in October,” Jebali said, adding that those involved in drawing up the new charter should speed up the process.

Photo Credit: Mohamed Messara

Egypt’s electoral commission announced Sunday that the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohamed Morsi won the presidential runoff with 13.2 million votes, or 51.7%, and will be Egypt’s first democratically elected president. The electoral commission spent an hour detailing specific violations that had been investigated but ultimately ruled the elections were credible. The majority of the 456 complaints filed by both sides were dismissed and about 800,000 votes were invalidated. Hundreds of thousands reportedly gathered in Tahrir Square to wait for the official announcement, and burst into celebration with fireworks when the news broke.

State television reported that Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, head of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), officially congratulated President-elect Morsi on his win, but as of yet there is no response from Morsi’s opponent, Ahmed Shafiq. Spokesman Gihad Haddad for the Muslim Brotherhood announced protests will continue against the Supreme Court’s dissolution of parliament and SCAF’s constitutional annex limiting the president’s power. Haddad also told Al Jazeera, “there will be no religious dominance over political decisions whatsoever,” when asked if Egypt’s new government will be secular.

Prior to the announcement, the U.S. embassy in Cairo addressed via Twitter claims that Secretary Clinton had  in some way endorsed Morsi when she called on SCAF to hand over power to “legitimate election winner.” Liberal groups Saturday had condemned Clinton’s remarks as “U.S. intervention” in the election. The U.S. embassy denied supporting any candidate and affirmed their commitment to the democratic process.

Also, Sara Sorcher writing in the National Journal details the regional impact of the Obama Administration’s handling of the NGO crisis in Egypt. Sorcher argues that prioritizing security and flexibility over the defense of civil society groups has encouraged governments across the Middle East to clamp down on democracy and freedom promoting activists. Sorcher warns this trend is spreading further, even among U.S. allies like Israel, and that without change, the U.S. will undermine the Arab Spring and alienate itself from Arabs

Photo Credit: AFP

The Iraqi government ordered the closure of 44 media outlets in the country, in a move Iraq’s media commission said was aimed only at closing those groups operating without a license. However, there is at least one broadcaster, Radio Sawa which is funded by the U.S., that says it does have a license but has still be targeted. The Journalistic Freedoms Observatory, an Iraqi press freedom group called the closures “a setback to the freedom of journalism in Iraq,” and others have accused Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki of trying to consolidate power and stifle criticism.

Meanwhile, Turkey carried out nine air strikes in Northern Iraq against bases for the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The assault is the latest in a series of clashes between PKK fighters and the Turkish military that in the last week have killed 26 PKK fighters and 8 Turkish soldiers.

Additionally, the Turkish Foreign Ministry announced that they now consider Syria’s downing of a Turkish jet to be a hostile act, rejecting Syria’s assertion that it was an accident. Turkey has also summoned envoys from NATO to meet on Tuesday to discuss if the incident qualifies as a threat, under article four of the NATO charter, to the “territorial integrity, political independence or security” of Turkey. This is the first such NATO meeting since 2003 on the eve of the invasion of Iraq.

Photo Credit: AFP

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad called for a new government to be formed Saturday led by former Agricultural Minister Riad Farid Hijab. The decree creates new ministries like the Ministry of Consumer Protection and of Internal Trade, but the ministers at the helm of the Foreign, Defense, and Interior Ministries will remain the same. The news comes at the same time as reports of another massacre of 28 people in the city of Deir al-Zor.

Meanwhile, Turkish President Abdullah Gul promised action against Syria for shooting down a Turkish jet yesterday over the Mediterranean. Syrian officials have appeared eager to assure Turkey that the incident was an accident, and Gul admitted that the jet may have crossed into Syrian airspace. The Iraqi Foreign Minister called the incident a “serious escalation” and expressed concern about the potential for violence to spill over into Iraq. A meeting in Beirut between EU foreign ministers and Lebanese politicians also tackled the threat of violence crossing over the border, as the European leaders urged Lebanese political groups to cooperate before it is too late.

Also, an anonymous Arab diplomat has reportedly confirmed Saudi Arabia’s involvement in paying salaries for Free Syrian Army soldiers, but added the Saudis with the help of Qatar have already been doing it for months. A spokesman for Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry, however, said he was “unaware” that the kingdom was paying any salaries.

In light of some speculation that the downed Turkish jet could involve NATO in the Syrian conflict, Jorge Benitez of the Atlantic Council wrote that while the wording of article 5 of the NATO treaty is subject to interpretation, the North Atlantic Council is very unlikely to view “an overly aggressive defensive action by Syria” as an “attack.”

Photo Credit: Washington Post

Bahraini opposition members clashed with police during a protest march Friday, injuring Sheik Ali Salman, the leader of al-Wefaq, Bahrain’s largest opposition party. Riot police reportedly used tear gas, stun grenades and rubber bullets on the crowd of about 40 after they were ordered to disperse. Salman says he believes he and the other opposition leaders were intentionally targeted, which would mark a new tactic for Bahrain’s security forces. An official press release said the situation is under investigation.

Also, in a recent interview, Assistant Secretary of State Michael Posner discussed human rights in Bahrain and other Arab states. Addressing the controversy around the recent sale of military equipment to Bahrain, Posner said the move was strictly national-security driven and was done in spite of “accountability” issues with the Bahraini government over human rights violations. Posner also touched on Tunisia and Libya, expressing cautious optimism for their transition processes.

Meanwhile, in Saudi Arabia, women activists cancelled their planned driving protest Friday after it had already been postponed due to the death of Saudi Crown Prince Nayef. The group Women2Drive instead will concentrate on petitioning the king to legalize women drivers and to create driving schools for women. One activist said the protest was scrapped due to concerns about repercussions on male guardians.

According to Arlene Getz, restrictions on women in kingdom have modestly improved since the start of the Arab Spring, notably in what she calls the “reigning in” of the religious police and encouragement of women’s education. Among some activists interviewed, including a Saudi princess, the right to drive is the “wrong fight” to pick, arguing instead more legal recognition and independence should come first.

James Traub writes in Foreign Policy that President Obama has not been proactive enough in its approach to the changes in the Middle East during the last 16 months. “The future of the Arab world really is impossible to predict from what feels like the eye of the hurricane,” Traub writes, “but sometimes — and perhaps especially when things look most grim — it’s not enough to be the detached well-wisher of freedom.”

A detached, impartial approach for the sake of seeking stability is understandable at times, Traub says, but it is now in America’s interest to more actively consider public opinion in the region. Even if Washington cannot get exactly the outcomes it may want to see,  ”the difference between a bad outcome and a not-so-bad outcome matters so much,” Traub writes.

Photo Credit: ICC/EPA

Libyan Prime Minister Abdulrahim el-Keib said Thursday that International Criminal Court lawyer Melinda Taylor, who has been detained by security forces over the last two weeks, was guilty of actions that “compromised national security” and would not be released, The Guardian reports. Taylor was arrested after meeting the indicted war crimes suspect Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, where she allegedly passed to him sensitive documents. “These documents have nothing to do with the ICC mission,” Keib said, adding, “The ICC should guarantee the professional morality and ethics of those sent to Libya.” The statement indicates that the ICC lawyer can expect a lengthy detention. The news comes just days after reports that Libya was eager to release Taylor.

Meanwhile, the Libyan Observatory for Human Rights condemned the killing of a judge investigating last year’s murder of a defected aide to Col Gaddafi, Gen. Abdel Fattah Younes. The human rights group has claimed the National Transition Council was responsible for the death of judge Jumah Hasan al-Jazwi, who was shot and killed Thursday on his way to a mosque in Benghazi.

In addition, Sara Sorcher interviewed Assistant Secretary of State Michael Posner, where he noted that though Libya has suffered from a near total institutional breakdown, progess has been encouraging.  ”The interim government is quite open to doing all that [starting from scratch]. Their own civil society is really trying to learn and play a role. So that’s all positive,” Posner said. The assistant secretary also commented on his recent trip to Bahrian and the political transition in Tunisia.

On Thursday, the SETA Foundation for Political, Economic, and Social Research hosted an event entitled “Egypt’s Presidential Election: Transition to What?” The event’s panel featured Khaled Elgindy, Visiting Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution; Nathan Brown, professor of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University and non-resident Senior Associate at the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; and Erol Cebeci, the Executive Director at the SETA Foundation at Washington DC. The event was moderated by Kadir Ustan, Research Director at the SETA Foundation.

For full event notes, continue reading below or click here for the PDF version. Read more…

On Thursday, the Atlantic Council, in collaboration with the Project on Middle East Democracy, held an event titled “Is Egypt’s Transition On or Off the Rails?” The discussion focused on the implications of the latest developments involving the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces and the prospects for stability and democracy looking ahead. The panelists were: Bahey Hassan, general director of the Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies, Mohsin Khan, a senior fellow at the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, and Stephen McInerney, executive director of the Project on Middle East Democracy. Michele Dunne, director of the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, moderated.

For full event notes, continue reading below or click here for the PDF version.

Read more…

Photo Credit: AFP/Shaam News

Members of Bashar al-Assad‘s inner circle are preparing to defect to the opposition if the regime is “critically threatened,” U.S. officials are reporting. A senior opposition source claimed that “We have names of people in the presidential palace. There are rumours that there is one who is really close to the president and we are expecting to see him out of the country soon.”

Meanwhile, clashes between rebels and the Syrian government continued yesterday, resulting in hundreds of civilian deaths. Also, Russia acknowledged that it is trying to send repaired combat helicopters to Syria, and denied that it is under any obligation to break weapons sales contracts. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov asserted that “we are not violating anything, and we will continue to fulfill our contractual obligations.” Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, has announced that it will be paying salaries for Free Syrian Army rebels, with the hope of encouraging more defections from the Syrian military.

Syrian state media reported today that 26 government supporters were massacred by Free Syrian Army rebels after being abducted from Darat Izza in Aleppo province. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights claimed that the victims were pro-regime fighters. The video showing the victims was distributed by the Observatory and posted on YouTube, and in it a narrator can be heard saying that “these are Shabbiha of Bashar Assad’s regime.” At the same time, Syrian troops have fired on a demonstration of thousands in Aleppo and killed 10 protesters.

Additionally, a Turkish F-4 Phantom warplane was lost in Syrian airspace, apparently shot down by Syrian air defenses. Syria has admitted that it was an accident and apologized, and the two countries are reportedly cooperating in recovering the downed plane from the Mediterranean.

On Wednesday June 20, Shadi Hamid, Director of Research at the Brookings Doha Center, published a policy paper entitled, “Prioritizing Democracy: How the Next President Should Re-Orient U.S. Policy in the Middle East.” The piece examines the Obama administration’s foreign policy in the Middle East and makes several policy recommendations for the following administration toward improved policy in the region.

Hamid argues that what was initially a major strength for the Obama administration has become a potential liability. In the future, “the United States can and should provide critical support to Arab countries transitioning to democracy,” adding, “After supporting autocratic regimes for more than five decades, the United States has a second chance to get it right and, in the process, build considerable goodwill among Arab populations and the governments they elect.” Whatever the results of the upcoming presidential election, the U.S. should: articulate a comprehensive strategy toward the Middle East that prioritizes democracy promotion; institutionalize democracy promotion by coordinating the funding of a multilateral “reform endowment;” Pursue a dialogue with rising Islamist parties; recognize the window for a two-state solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict is closing, and commit to rebuilding frayed ties with Israeli and Palestinian leaders.

In addition, Hamid contends, the near future will provide an opportunity to improve and redirect U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. U.S. support for democratic change in the Arab world will be of increasing importance. “The aspirations of ordinary Arabs can no longer be cast aside as irrelevant to U.S. interests,” he writes, adding that in the coming years “what Arabs think and what their governments do will be much more closely linked.” However, Hamid cautions that “all the support of Arab democracy will still fail to usher in a refashioned U.S. relationship with the region if, as currently seems likely, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to fester . . . With this in mind, the United States should make clear that it stands firmly by Israel during a difficult time, while also impressing upon it the need to act sooner rather than later to make the difficult but ultimately necessary compromises for a durable peace.”

Photo Credit: Daniel Berehulak / Getty Images

Thousands of Egyptians have crowded into Tahrir Square to denounce the SCAF’s recent actions as the country awaits the official results of its presidential election. Members and supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood gathered in the square on Friday, and several secular movements have pledged to join the protests as well. Demonstrators demanded military rulers reverse new orders that entrench the generals’ power. The Muslim Brotherhood called on supporters to gather until the SCAF revoke orders that curbed the new president’s powers and dissolved the parliament. According to The Guardian, the SCAF has “blamed the Muslim Brotherhood for raising tensions by releasing election results early.” The council said announcing the results before an official statement was “unjustified” and is the main reason behind the confusion and divisions plaguing the political situation. Meanwhile, the election authorities are considering re-running elections in more than 100 polling stations, according to Ahram Online.

Additionally, Eli Lake reports that a member of the U.S.-designated terrorist group Gamaa Islamiya was invited to Washington as part of a delegation of Egyptian legislators. Hani Nour Eldin said “I have taken the American visa from the embassy as a member of the parliament representing a political party that has been elected and is a legitimate party,” though his membership in Gamaa Islamiya should have precluded him from receiving a visa, according to U.S. law.

Ed Husain writes that for the time being Egypt’s revolution seems to be on hold and the general public is wary of more protests. He added that the SCAF “can choose to enter the 21st century, and be remembered by history for doing the right thing. Or the junta can be damned by posterity for killing its own children as they return to Tahrir Square to revolt.” Tony Karon suggests the SCAF “has left no doubt that it has no intention of handing genuine political authority to elected civilians.” Karon also posits that SCAF “could opt for allowing a Morsi presidency in the hope that acknowledging a largely symbolic win by the Brotherhood could defuse a showdown and even give the Islamists a stake in the stability of a new status quo.”

*Update* - In a statement on Friday the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces warned that ”any attempts to harm public or private interests will be confronted with utmost firmness and strength by the police and armed forces within the law.” The declaration came in reaction to the thousands of protesters that gathered in Tahrir Square demanding a return to civilian rule.

Photo Credit: EPA/Raed Qutena

Over half of the members of Kuwait’s reinstated former parliament have resigned in protest of a court decision invalidating an Islamist election victory. Political scientist Abdullah al-Shayji believed the best option for the government would be “to restore the parliament as ordered by the constitutional court and then go ahead and suspend it again and call for fresh elections.”

In Bahrain, a 58-year-old doctor sentenced to a year in prison in connection with anti-government protests has undertaken a hunger strike, with the goal of attracting international attention and getting his sentence thrown out. Saeed al-Samaheeji said “we are doctors, not criminals, and we were trying to save lives, and these sentences are political convictions. … We are innocent.” Regarding Saudi Arabia’s proposed union with Bahrain, Geneive Abdo argues that such a move would only increase divisions between Sunnis and Shiites in the Gulf.

Meanwhile, a man in Saudi Arabia was executed this week for practicing “witchcraft” and committing adultery. Also, two Egyptians, a brother and sister, were beheaded for kidnapping a young girl from the Mosque of the Prophet in Medina and torturing her for over three years. Rosie Bsheer conducts a lengthy interview with the organizers of the Eastern Province Revolution Twitter/Facebook page, in which the Saudi activists talk about their history, aims, and strategies.

An editorial in The Economist contends that Oman will not go unscathed by the Arab Spring, and the issue of succession after Sultan Qaboos bin Said al-Said and the transition to a post-oil economy are the two major problems Oman will face in the near future.

Photo Credit: El Watan

Algerian journalist Manseur Si Mohamed was sentenced to two months in prison and fined 50,00o dinars Wednesday by a court in Mascara for “libellous comments,” according to Reporters Without Borders. Mohamed, who is the bureau chief of the French-language newspaper La Nouvelle République and head of the Mascara branch of the Algerian Journalists’ Union, was convicted for writing an article in December that criticized the Council of State for failing to apply Supreme Court rulings and penalizing public authorities. “Imprisoning a journalist for a press offence is unworthy of a country that has decriminalized defamation in its new media law which took effect in January,” the press freedom organization said.

Meanwhile, the Arabic Network for Human Rights Information (ANHRI) denounced the arrest and trial of four activists on charges of assembly and peaceful condemnation for the imprisonment of another activist, Abdel-qader Kharba, a member in the national commission for the unemployed rights and the Algerian League for the Defense of Human Rights. ANHRI demanded the immediate release of the activists and an end to their trial. The arrests come after new legislative amendments giving the Algerian government heightened powers over civil society, especially the political sphere in general.

In related news, Lamine Chikhi reports that Algeria’s government is suffering from disagreements over who should be the favorite to be the next president, “exposing divisions within the ruling elite that could shatter the country’s fragile stability.” The discord could potentially awaken conflicts with Islamist militants. “I think 2014 is actually the potential flashpoint in terms of political stability in Algeria … I am thinking more about struggles and conflicts within the (system),” Riccardo Fabiani, North Africa analyst with Eurasia Group, said.

Photo Credit: Aljazeera

The New York Times reported Thursday that a number of CIA officers are on the ground in Turkey funneling weapons to opposition fighters in Syria. Automatic rifles, rocket-propelled grenades, ammunition, and some antitank weapons, paid for by Turkey, Saudia Arabia, and Qatar, are being smuggled across the border by the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood. According to Arab intelligence officials, the CIA operatives have been on the ground for several weeks in order to keep weapons out of the hands of fighters allied with Al Qaeda and “to make new sources and recruit people.”

Additionally, Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, may be offered safe passage and clemency by the U.S. and the U.K.  in order to encourage a transfer of power. One U.K. official said: “It is hard to see a negotiated solution in which one of the participants would be willing voluntarily to go off to the international criminal court.” Many foreign policy makers now consider the “Yemen model,” in which Assad would be granted asylum if he stepped down, the most viable political solution to the current conflict.

Meanwhile, the International Committee of the Red Cross was planning on mounting an emergency operation to aid and evacuate the wounded, sick and elderly from the besieged city of Homs, however, on Thursday the team had had to turn back “due to shooting and the security situation.”

Finally, Jordan granted political asylum to a defecting Syrian pilot after he landed his jet at a military air base in the kingdom on Thursday. This was the first defection involving an aircraft since the start of the 15-month-old crisis.