Whatever the outcome of the Syrian uprising, the regime of Bashar al-Assad will not have the same grip over Lebanon’s politics as before. While the government in Damascus fights against the rebels, Beirut’s political landscape is also at a crossroads, as the two main Lebanese political blocs, March 8 and March 14, still base much of their platforms on being either pro- or anti-Syria.

Analysts say that the Hezbollah-led, pro-Syria March 8 alliance is facing a foreign support crisis and many of its parties’ existences are threatened by the crumbling of the regime that supported them for decades.

“Syria’s most important role in Lebanon was security,” Imad Salamey, professor of Political Science and International Relations at the Lebanese American University, told NOW. He noted that politicians who chose to represent Syria’s interests in Lebanon used that security threat to deter their domestic political rivals and gain power and influence.

Al-Balad political analyst Ali al-Amin argues that there are two types of political factions within March 8: those dependent on the Syrian regime and those with a strong Lebanese political identity but that benefit from the security alliance with Damascus. “All of these parties will be vulnerable, will decline in influence, and some will struggle for existence,” he told NOW.

Salamey also said that the March 8 parties will most probably be forced to change their alignment following Assad’s fall and will find new foreign protectors. “Historically, the Lebanese sectarian groups have always sheltered their members,” Salamey said.


Suleiman Franjieh is a close friend and ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Their friendship goes back to 1978, when young Franjieh took exile in Latakia after his father, mother and sister was assassinated in the Ehden Massacre. While keeping mum on most events of the Arab Spring, Franjieh classified the Syrian uprising as a terrorist coup against the Damascus government. Analysts say that Franjieh’s family wealth is likely to keep his Marada Movement politically alive, even without Syrian regime support. It is, however, unclear yet toward which foreign protector the politician might reorient. 


General Michel Aoun’s relationship with Syria is long and complicated. As head of the Lebanese army, Aoun waged in March 1989 a liberation war against the Syrian occupiers, who had 40,000 troops in Lebanon, and spent 15 years in exile to avoid being assassinated. However, when he returned to Beirut in 2005 after the Syrian withdrawal, he allied his party with Hezbollah and became part of the pro-Syrian March 8 coalition. Aoun has taken a mild stance on the Syrian uprising, hinting at the need for regime change, but at the same time expressing fears of Islamists taking over Lebanon’s neighbor. Analysts say the FPM is not in danger of disappearing after the collapse of the Syrian regime, but its popularity will be affected. Aoun could gradually take a critical stance against the Syrian regime and seek French foreign support in the event of Assad’s ouster.


Assaad Hardan is a dedicated supporter of “Greater Syria,” which includes Lebanon, and is one of the most important pro-Syrian politicians in the country. Because of his alliance with the regime in Damascus, the United States imposed sanctions on Hardan in July 2012 for allegedly transferring weapons from Syria to Hezbollah. His party’s supporters were also allegedly involved in several armed incidents in the Hamra district of Beirut after Syrian refugees started protesting against the Assad regime in front of the Syrian Embassy.  Analysts say the Syrian Social Nationalist Party would be badly affected by the collapse of Syrian regime, as the party is strictly dependent on Damascus. One way to save it would be to seek Russia’s support.


Bashar al-Assad’s close friend and advisor, Michel Samaha was arrested in August 2012 for allegedly planning to kill religious leaders in northern Lebanon at the request of Damascus. Lebanese authorities charged him, together with Syrian national security chief General Ali Mamluk, for plotting “terrorist attacks” and the assassination of political and religious figures in Lebanon. None of Syria’s allies in Lebanon spoke in defense of Samaha. While the evidence was made public in the Lebanese media, the Syrian government expressed no reaction.


With his main foreign protector collapsing, longtime Assad ally Nabih Berri has few options as to which foreign powers—and providers—to ally himself with. Analysts agree that the most obvious foreign sponsor for the Amal Movement is Iran, which has already reportedly provided Berri with some political cover and financial support.


Analysts agree that the fall of the Assad regime will hit Hezbollah very hard, but they also say that the support the party gets from Iran is more important than the political backing it receives from Syria. Some analysts suggest that Hezbollah will lose its regional popularity, as it is perceived as an ally of the Assad regime, and it will also lose control of the Lebanese government institutions it controlled.


A friend of the Syrian president with Arab nationalist views, Wiam Wahhab founded the Arab Tawhid Party, which is part of the National Coalition, led by pro-Syrian Sunni leader Omar Karami. The Tawhid Movement was involved in various feuds with supporters of fellow Druze leader Walid Jumblatt’s Progressive Socialist Party. Together with SSNP cheif Assaad Hardan, Wahhab was one of the Lebanese politicians the United Stated imposed sanctions on for allegedly smuggling weapons to Hezbollah from Syria and stirring instability in Lebanon. Tawhid is one of the small pro-Syrian parties endangered by the collapse of the Syrian regime, its primary regional backer.


The Lebanese Baath Party is a branch of the Damascus-based Syrian Baath Party that brought Hafez al-Assad to power. Assem Qanso was the longest-serving secretary general of the party and became one of its two MPs after the 2009 parliamentary elections. During the Syrian uprising, Qanso accused Lebanon First bloc MP Okab Saqr, Hani Hammoud and former PM Saad Hariri of being part of a conspiracy to stage the uprising in Syria. Analysts say his party will most likely cease to exist post-Assad, the same way Iraqi Baathists lost power in post-Saddam Iraq.


Sunni MP Osama Saad, based in Sidon, allied his party with Hezbollah after the Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon in 2005. PNO supporters clashed with members of Salafist Sheikh Ahmed al-Assir’s sit-in in Sidon, which was set up to protest Hezbollah’s arsenal. Analysts say that Osama Saad’s small political faction is not threatened by the collapse of the Syrian regime, due to the tribal structure of Sidon, where each family’s support base allows clans to reorganize politically.

Younger brother of assassinated PM Rashid Karami, Omar entered politics following his brother's death and was elected representative of Tripoli in 1991. He is a veteran supporter of Syria, is a Hezbollah ally and was one of the candidates for heading the March 8 cabinet in 2010. Analysts say that the Syrian regime’s collapse might make Karami realign with moderate Sunni factions like PM Najib Miqati’s.