Commodity Corner
Views on commodities and energy
from Krishna Das:
ANALYSIS-Small ships to unlock rate boon for bulk owners
By Krishna N Das and Jonathan Saul
BANGALORE/LONDON, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Dry cargo shippers with smaller vessels are shifting to more-risk, more-reward spot markets, eyeing rising demand for sugar and grains -- commodities well suited to versatile supramax and handysize ships.
Ship owners generally prefer long-term charters in a weak market. The Baltic Dry Index <.BADI> o-year lows in recent weeks but confidence has been rocked by South Korean dry bulk group Korea Line Corp <005880.KS> filing for bankruptcy protection, highlighting the risk of charter-party defaults.
"Concerns now persist industry-wide, as speculation grows as to whether faults," Deutsche Bank analyst Justin Yagerman said.
"Continued charterer defaults could bring into question many companies' above-market charters." Flooding in Australia, the world's biggest coal exporter, and weather-srupted coal shipments and dented sentiment for capesize vessels -- the giants of seaborne trade routes, typically hauling 150,000 tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal.
from Tales from the Trail:
Think brussels sprouts and cauliflower are agricultural commodities? Think again.
While the financial bailouts tossed to automakers, banks and other groups during the recent economic crisis left a funny taste in the mouth of some Americans, one former U.S. regulator hopes efforts to prevent another panic doesn't go rotten.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is immersed in drafting dozens of rules to assist it in increasing oversight of the once opaque over-the-counter derivatives market, widely blamed for exacerbating the recent financial crisis.
Among the rules it must craft is what the definition of an agricultural commodity is? Of course, corn, cotton, soybeans and livestock, among other items, fall into this realm.
from MacroScope:
Argentina set for wheat windfall
Not everyone is upset about the 50 percent surge in wheat prices over the past month.
Wheat's rise to 2-year highs was caused first by heavy rains in Canada and now by a Russian export ban that was triggered by its worst drought in decades. There are floods in Pakistan, another major wheat grower. But while the wheat market shenanigans are triggering much hand-wringing across developing nations, Argentina, one of the world's top seven wheat exporters, may be set for a windfall.
Farmers there are increasing wheat plantings, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange says. The South American country is expected to export around 8 million tonnes of wheat in the 2010-2011 year. With wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade at around $8 a bushel, a very simple calculation shows export revenues are going to very significant.
Getting down to business at U.N. climate talks a hard task
A U.N. concession to delegates at this week’s climate talks in Bonn to take off jackets and ties due to recent high temperatures may be going to some participants’ heads.
Breaking the back of negotiations for a new climate pact after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012 is proving hard work even though the talks’ chair hopes to have a new negotiating text on the table by the end of the week.
Developing nations are still blaming the rich for global warming and the issue of who will contribute most to climate financing is still a matter for debate.
from MacroScope:
Should central banks now sell gold?
Central banks in debt-strapped countries have a golden opportunity ahead of them, if you will excuse the pun, to help their countries' finances by selling their yellow metal holdings.
At least, that is the message that Royal Bank of Scotland's commodities chief Nick Moore has been giving in recent presentations -- and he thinks it might happen. The gist is that gold is now at a record price but banks have not come close to meeting their sales allowance for the year.
Under the Central Bank Gold Agreement there is a quota of 400 tonnes that can be sold by central banks within a 12 month period and with only about three months to go in the latest period less than 39 tonnes has been sold. At today's price that remaining 361 tonnes is worth some $14 billion.
Did Americans drive more this Memorial Day?
Consumer confidence is perking up and with summer around the corner, Americans might be feeling a little more liberal with their travel budget, according to some trendwatchers and people in the travel industry.
“Our train counts are three times what they were last year,” said Bruce Brossman, director of reservations and sales at the Grand Canyon Railway, which expected to sell out on Memorial Day weekend.
The Grand Canyon itself typically draws large crowds over long holiday weekends, but secondary attractions like the two-hour scenic train ride up from Williams, Arizona, suffered in the recession.
from Summit Notebook:
Would the last person to leave the smelter please turn out the lights?
For UC RUSAL, one simple act is crucial to reducing costs. Bonuses for managers at the world's largest aluminium company depend on the company's 75,000 workers heeding the message. "We have to introduce a new culture: if you leave the office, turn off the lights," Artyom Volynets, UC RUSAL's deputy chief executive for strategy, said at Reuters Global Mining and Steel Summit on Monday. "We have 16 smelters, each with their own headquarters and offices. We employ 75,000 people. If each one of them is switching off the lights at the end of their shift, that would help tremendously." UC RUSAL embarked on a major drive to slash production costs last year as part of an ultimately successful attempt to secure Russia's largest ever private sector debt restructuring. Easy access to Siberian hydroelectric power, compared with relatively high-cost coal used to power smelters in other parts of the world, affords UC RUSAL a distinct cost advantage when making aluminium used in transport, construction and packaging. In the first half of 2009, it cost UC RUSAL an average $1,400 to produce a tonne of aluminium. The metal is now selling at above $2,200 a tonne. UC RUSAL has cut costs by sourcing cheaper raw materials of better quality and improving throughput rates at its smelters in Siberia, which account for about 80 percent of its total output. But cheap power in Siberia had also led to complacency. "Our smelters are located in probably the only remaining major energy-long region in the world. Therefore, if you buy power at 2 cents per kilowatt, you don't really care how much you spend," Volynets said. "For my colleagues on the operational side of the business, their key performance indicators are 100 percent tied to cost improvements," he said. "They will not be compensated if these improvements are not implemented." (Writing by Robin Paxton in Moscow)
Branson’s Virgin Group gets into peak oil
Dire predictions tend to grab the attention – especially when an international celebrity lends a voice.
A report released in Britain this week with the unpromising title — the UK’s Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil & Energy Security – might have found only a specialised readership, but for the inclusion of Richard Branson’s Virgin Group in the six-member task force.
(The others were Arup, Foster & Partners, Scottish and Southern Energy, Solarcentury and Stagecoach Group.)
