Opinion

Ian Bremmer

G-zero and the end of the 9/11 era top 2012 risks

Ian Bremmer
Jan 5, 2012 20:04 UTC

In a video for Reuters, Ian Bremmer discusses the biggest risks facing the markets in 2012 and says the next phase in the Middle East and the post-9/11 environment pose the greatest uncertainty:

Top Risks of 2012

As we begin 2012, political risks dominate global headlines in a way we’ve not experienced in decades. Everywhere you look in today’s global economy, concerns over insular, gridlocked, or fractured politics affecting markets stare back at you. Continuation of the politically driven crisis in the eurozone appears virtually guaranteed. There is profound instability across the Middle East. Grassroots opposition to entrenched governments is spreading to countries such as Russia and Kazakhstan that were thought more insulated. Nuclear powers North Korea and Pakistan (and soon Iran?) face unprecedented internal political pressure… Read the full top risks report here.

COMMENT

You’re doing a good job describing the risks but what about quantifying them and further depict the negative impacts or positive opportunities that would occur if these risks would materialize. Moving more towards risk analysis rather than risk reporting….

Also for the sake of transparency, who is taking these risks you describe? Global economy is rather vague… be more specific from what perspective you see things. What can be described as a risk for a political segment can be an opportunity for another segment.

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Turkey ascendant, Palestine in tow. Whither Israel and the U.S.?

Ian Bremmer
Sep 21, 2011 14:46 UTC

By Ian Bremmer
The opinions expressed are his own.

If President Obama thinks he’s having a tough month, he’s got nothing on Israel’s Bibi Netanyahu. In Tel Aviv, hundreds of thousands of Israelis are protesting the cost of living. In New York, the Palestinians are readying a statehood resolution at the United Nations. In Ankara, the Turkish government has expelled the Israeli ambassador from the country. And in Cairo, an Egyptian crowd is taking the job on themselves, attacking the Israeli embassy.

Of all of these events, though, Turkey is the biggest worry. Prime Minister Recep Erdogan has steadily escalated an anti-Israel tack for over a year now, most recently by accusing Israel of behaving like a “spoiled child.” More directly, Erdogan has also proclaimed that the Turkish navy will stop the planned start of gas drilling explorations off the Cyprus coast by an Israel-Cypriot consortium. That’s tantamount to threatening armed conflict. Why is Turkey so ascendant in Middle East politics, to Israel’s dismay? There are three very good reasons:

1. The U.S. is playing less of a role in the Middle East.

Under President Obama, the U.S. has become a “taker” not a “maker” of foreign policy there. Simply put, this Administration has spent less time on the Middle East peace question than any other since the creation of the Israeli state. With all the issues facing Obama at home — joblessness, a tanking economy and his own re-election, to name a few — and all the more pressing international issues, like winding down the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and dealing with the euro zone and China — Israel has taken a political backseat. As NATO allies like Turkey fill the void and create their own regional strategies, Israel, being in the most unnatural geopolitical position there, has had the hardest time establishing its own power center.

2. A newfound sense of Islamic populism.

It’s been almost a year since the first rumblings of the Arab spring. With the Middle East very much still unstable — albeit a different kind of instability than has usually been evident — it’s been necessary for governments of all stripes to start listening and acceding to the demands of their people. Turkey’s prime minister is far from clinging to power, but it’s safe to say that taking a hard line on Israel is low hanging fruit for any leader in the Islamic world, even in a country with a longstanding secular tradition.

3. A vacuum at the top of the developing world.

There’s a spot to fill in the ranks of emerging market world leaders, and it’s at the very head of the pack. Thanks to factors in and out of his control, no one looks more likely than Erdogan to become the dean of those ranks. Following in the footsteps of South Africa’s Nelson Mandela, Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew and Brazil’s Lula, Erdogan is at the helm of a country that appears ready to step up onto the regional and global stage. Turkish leadership is about to get a new meaning — one that extends beyond a Turkish’s prime minister’s simple advocacy of Turkish interests around the globe. Erdogan has a chance to be out in front on issues important to emerging economies worldwide — and that could become an issue for Israel.

Even in the context of their own history, Israel is right now looking very short on friends. While the country is under little serious internal or external economic pressure, the political and security issues there are getting more and more troublesome. That may be why Israel has stayed very quiet on the diplomatic front as of late, with leaders hoping to keep their heads down and wait for a more propitious environment in which to stake out their political ground. But as the Palestinian recognition issue in the UN is likely to soon renders that stance untenable, Netanyahu will have to find another tack. All of this makes ominous the prospects of broader hostilities breaking out around Israel. And the military force best poised to create confrontation is none other than Turkey.

Though the Cypriot-Israeli gas drilling project (the one Turkey has threatened to blockade) is likely to be resolved with the help of some American intervention, it’s hard to ignore the weak signals emanating from the Middle East that make a conflict no longer unthinkable. Unlikely, absolutely, but an Israeli-Turkey naval confrontation would no longer be the most surprising headline to wake up to one morning.

If such an event came to pass, the U.S. would find itself in quite a pickle. Again, Turkey is a NATO ally — an attack on one is an attack on all — and yet Israel is, despite the recent cool feelings between Obama and Netanyahu, America’s strategic partner in the region. The U.S. would try to de-escalate any standoff, but it would be unable to take a strong stance in such a conflict. That would leave Germany, of all countries, as Israel’s best friend. What an unfortunate irony.

This essay is based on a transcribed interview with Bremmer.

Photo: Palestinian schoolboys hold a poster depicting Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan during a rally at Gaza Seaport calling on Erdogan to visit the Gaza Strip September 13, 2011. REUTERS/Ismail Zaydah

COMMENT

I think the problem is that Turkey is descendant, not ascendant. The AKP won the latest elections with a reduced majority even thoough they passed a law expanding the voters base, and the economy has been deteriorating rapidly. Erdogan’s key domestic accomplishment is subjecting the military to civilian control, which is also the biggest risk externally as now he can order this military around in the region.

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The coming Palestinian statehood

Ian Bremmer
Aug 3, 2011 16:14 UTC

By Ian Bremmer
The opinons expressed are his own.

 

As violent protests rock the Arab world, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Israeli government has tried to keep a low profile. It has largely succeeded. That’s about to change.

This year’s upheaval in North Africa and the Middle East is not quite finished. As President Saleh recovers from injuries suffered during an attack on Yemen’s presidential palace, the country remains plagued with protests and crackdowns. Libya’s Qaddafi clings to power, Syria’s Assad copes with surges of public anger, and Egypt’s zigzag path toward democracy reminds us how hard it is to fill the hole left behind by a castoff autocrat.

Israelis have watched closely from the sidelines to better understand what all this turmoil means for their future. As the dust begins to settle, it has become clear that they have plenty to worry about. Populism is taking root in the Middle East, a region where ordinary people have been forced for years to scream in unison to make themselves heard. Now they find that they have the power to bring about change. In response, Arab leaders—the newly elevated, those clinging to power, and even those simply facing a more uncertain future—are now listening to public opinion much more closely.

That’s bad news for Israel, because one of the most popular causes across the Middle East is a more genuine and vigorous defense of Palestinians. The Arab world’s uprisings have had virtually nothing to do with Israel. They are spontaneous expressions of public outrage that governments are corrupt, that average citizens have no power to do anything about it, that living standards aren’t rising, and that nothing ever changes. But the protests have now empowered large numbers of people who also want to see Israel face enormous political pressure.

They’re about to get their wish. In New York next month, Palestinians will seek UN recognition of statehood, and the General Assembly will likely vote to give it to them. Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian National Authority, is well aware that tides are moving in his favor. Not content with a symbolic declaration of his people’s right to form a state, Abbas has pledged to seek UN member status for the new state of Palestine. That’s almost certainly a bridge too far, but he most likely will win enough votes to move the Palestinian Authority from “non-member entity status” to “non-member state status.” The difference is important because, at the very least, it would give the PA greater standing at the UN and other international organizations. It’s also an important psychological achievement that will more deeply legitimize a Palestine state in the eyes of many nations.

America is Israel’s only reliable ally, but the White House wants no part of the UN theatrics. President Obama would welcome an opportunity to prove his commitment to support Israel, and he’ll make clear both Washington’s opposition to a General Assembly move and U.S. intent to veto in the Security Council any Palestinian effort to acquire full UN membership as a state. But he’d also like a chance to back the Arab world’s lunge toward self-determination. He won’t be able to support both sides in September, and he faces much more immediate challenges at home. Reviving the US economy, creating jobs, managing a draw-down of troops from Afghanistan while battling increasingly aggressive Republicans will leave the president with little extra time and political capital to spend on Israeli-Palestinian diplomatic fireworks.

The bad news for Israel is that Palestinians are aware of the limits on what they can get, and will likely focus their fight on the General Assembly, not the Security Council, where Obama wouldn’t cast America’s veto. Add the famously troubled relationship between Obama and Netanyahu, and Israel is about to look more isolated than ever.

This essay is based on a transcribed interview with Bremmer.

Photo: A woman holds a Palestinian flag during the 2014 FIFA World Cup qualification soccer match between Thailand and the Palestinian Territories at A-Ram stadium near Jerusalem July 28, 2011. REUTERS/Mohamad Torokman

COMMENT

Bremmer writes: “one of the most popular causes across the Middle East is a more genuine and vigorous defense of Palestinians”.

If this were true, the Palestinians would be warmly welcomed as equals in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Kuwait and the other Arab countries. Instead, they live in squalid refugee camps, discriminated against by the locals, unable to obtain citizenship or jobs. The dirty little secret in the Middle East is that the Arabs care less for the Palestinians than do the Israelis. Kuwait expelled half a million of them following the Gulf War for their support of Saddam Hussein.

The other Arab tribes are only interested in the Palestinians to the extent that they can be put to use in the relentless effort to rid the region of Jews.

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