Global Investing

The  apparent turnaround in Africa’s fortunes over the past decade has been attributed to the rise of China and its insatiable appetite for African commodities. So African policymakers, like those everywhere, will have been relieved by the recent uptick in Chinese economic data.

But is Africa’s dependence on China exaggerated?  A hard landing in the Asian giant will be an undoubted setback for African finances but according to Fitch Ratings.  it may not be a disaster.

Fitch analyst Kit Ling Leung estimates that if China’s economy grows at below-forecast rates of 5 percent in 2013 and 6.5 percent in 2014, African real GDP growth will slow by 90 basis points.  So a 3 percentage point drop in Chinese growth will lead to less than a 1 percentage point hit to Africa. Countries such as Angola will take a harder hit due to oil price falls but others such as Uganda, which import most of their energy, may even benefit, Yeung’s exercise shows.

The main risk channel is of course trade.  Africa had a 1.6 percent trade surplus with China in 2011 but countries such as South Africa send almost a fifth of their exports to China. Oil price falls and slower  growth in European trade partners as a result of Chinese weakness will also  be a headwind for many.

Investment might be less of an issue. Of the total Chinese FDI received in 2010 by the continent, Botswana absorbed as much as 27 percent while Nigeria and Uganda received just 2 percent each, Fitch data shows.  Yeung also points out African countries’  efforts to diversify financing sources. Angola for instance turned to Russian bank VTB for a $1 billion loan earlier this year.  Yeung said:

Is there room only for the biggest, most aggressively-marketed funds in crisis-hit Europe?

Europe’s ten best-selling funds have attracted nearly a third of net sales across bonds, equity and mixed assets so far this year, as the grey bars show in the following chart from Thomson Reuters’ fund research firm Lipper.

TEN MOST SUCCESSFUL FUNDS’ NET SALES AS A PROPORTION OF ALL SALES

The numbers — which exclude ETFs — are even more staggering if looking at at the concentration of sales into groups/companies, rather than at fund level.

Watchers of ratings agencies might be wondering if a golden period of steady credit upgrades for emerging economies is coming to an end. This week brought a ratings downgrade for Egypt and an outlook cut for Turkey. Hungary is teetering on the brink of having its rating cut to junk. Across the emerging world, countries are struggling with weaker growth, still-high inflation and falling investment. Debt ratios are rising.  All this could bode ill for sovereign credit ratings.

But no fear. The so-called ratings convergence between developed and developing economies has some way to go yet.  Egypt and Turkey may have received bad news this week but there were ratings upgrades for Kazakhstan and Georgia. Emerging countries are still more likely to be upgraded than downgraded. Debt-ridden rich nations on the other hand face ratings cuts, including possibly the mighty United States.  JPMorgan points out that, emerging markets have enjoyed 35 upgrades this year, while developed sovereigns have suffered 32 downgrades and no upgrades.  The bank predicts an additional 22 upgrades for the developing world in 2012.

“The convergence trend appears likely to continue, since a total of nine developed market countries remain on negative outlook or review for a possible downgrade,” according to JPMorgan. Emerging economies have received 133 sovereign upgrades since 2008, the bank notes.  The last developed country upgrade that still stands?  Sweden’s move up to AAA — achieved in 2004.

No sign at a Fitch Ratings briefing today that things will get much better this year for emerging market debt. The 100 or so mainly industry attendees were asked to give their thoughts using a machine not unlike the “Ask the Audience” gadget seen on “Who Wants to be a Millionaire”.

Only 10 percent said credit quality would improve over the next 12 months. By far the largest vote — 59 percent — was for credit quality to “deteriorate” somewhat.

 As for a wholesale crisis on emerging markets, the attendees were fairly sceptical. Only 12 percent thought there was a more than 50 percent chance of such event. Half the respondents said the odds were between 20 and 49 percent. SOme 38 percent said it was less than that.