Des Moines Register Endorses Mitt Romney
Poll: Obama, Romney Locked At 49% In Ohio
Epic Hurricane Sandy Descends On Election
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TPM Editors’ Blog Opinions, Context & Ideas from TPM Editors
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Lying to 11
In a final bid to win Ohio, the Romney campaign has been exceeding even its own vaunted standard of lying in the last 72 hours on the facts of the auto bailout. Jon Cohn has the story.
Riders on the Storm
Here at TPM we’re making contingency plans to continue our wall-to-wall coverage of Campaign 2012, even as both our offices come under Hurricane Sandy. What are you doing to ride out the storm if you’re in an affected area? Tell us here.
More Geekery
If you simply can’t get enough of the campaign numbers geekery at this point. Here’s another interesting take. Middlebury presidential scholar Matthew Dickinson looking at the latest from Drew Linzer – who’s got another complex model (somewhat like Nate Silver’s) to crunch together all the numbers and tell us what to expect on the 6th.
Linzer’s forecast seems even more bullish for Obama than a lot of people are figuring. But Dickinson walks us through the underlying assumptions and what alternate assumptions could produce different results.
Hungry for Data
TPM Reader AW reports in …
I was in our local bakery, Colozza’s, today here in Parma, OH. They are selling cookies with portraits of Obama and Romney on them, and tracking the number of sales. As of this afternoon, Obama was up 283 to 270. (I was tempted, but I decided I liked cannolis better than either of them.)
Big Number for Obama
WaPo poll of Virginia: Obama +4
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Spare Me
Karen Tumulty has a piece in tonight’s Post on the non-trivial chances that we could have a split between the popular vote and the electoral college.
Read More →Reid’s Office Releases Statement
Sen. Reid’s office releases statement on auto accident.
Understanding the Polls in Ohio
I’ve mentioned a few times that there’s a pattern in the Ohio polls. The premium polls seem to consistently show better results for Obama than the others. Now ‘premium’ can mean a lot of things. But in this case I mean in part a subjective read of the pollster’s quality and reputation and also the ones who use live interviewers and are thus allowed to call cell phones. We did a systematic look at all the Ohio polls. And it’s true. The premium polls – which means the ones who can call cell phones – show a consistently larger lead for President Obama. See the chart.
The Day In 100 Seconds
Brace yourself for the Frankenstorm:
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Harry Reid Taken to Hospital After Car Crash
Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) was taken to University Medical Center in Las Vegas this afternoon after his security motorcade was involved in a multi-car accident.
There is no information currently available on Reid’s condition.
Late Update: Subsequent reports are that Reid was able to walk into the emergency on his own feet and is apparently fine. We’ll bring you updates as we receive them.
Fresh Out Of The Oven
Indulge yourself with today’s update to Polltracker’s top races.
Mourdock
Best sign that Richard Mourdock is in a world of trouble in Indiana? His own campaign today released a poll today showing him tied.
Conservative Scholars: Romney Supreme Court Could Wipe Out Longstanding Liberal Jurisprudence
Conservative legal activists anticipate that a Romney win could wipe out decades of liberal jurisprudence.
Most Recent Latest news stories from TPM reporters
Romney Tries To Erode Obama’s Auto Bailout Advantage In Ohio
President Obama’s successful rescue of the auto industry is helping the president maintain a small lead in the crucial battleground state of Ohio. But in the final days of the campaign, Mitt Romney is trying to erode that edge.
In a new ad in Ohio, the Romney campaign argues that it’s Mitt Romney who will support the auto industry and that the president put the companies through a destructive bankruptcy process that will result in jobs going overseas.
Read More →
Gingrich Defends Mourdock’s Rape Remarks: ‘Get Over It,’ Obama Is The Real Radical On Abortion
On the Sunday talk show circuit, Newt Gingrich defended Republican Senate candidate Richard Mourdock of Indiana for his remarks about abortion and rape, referring to the controversy as “nonsense” and calling on President Obama’s campaign to “get over it.” “If you listen to what Mourdock actually said, he said what virtually every Catholic and every fundamentalist in the country believes, life begins at conception,” Gingrich said on ABC’s “This Week.” “Now, this seems to be fixated by …
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Larry Summers: Romney’s Auto Rescue Claims Don’t Add Up
Mitt Romney insisted in Monday’s debate that the auto companies would not have been liquidated under his watch, even as he’s complained the bilions of dollars in government aid used to rescue the industry was unnecessary. But Larry Summers, who served as a top economic aide to President Obama in his first year, told TPM his claim is a “fantasy” for a variety of reasons. Romney has said he would have saved money by relying on private finance to move the big three car companies…
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CNN Poll: Obama Remains At 50 Percent In Ohio
President Obama has leveled at 50 percent in the electoral college’s biggest prize, Ohio, according to a poll from CNN released Friday. Obama gets 50 percent of likely voters in Ohio against Romney’s 46 percent, representing little change from CNN’s previous poll of the state that showed Obama at 51 percent to Romney’s 47 percent in early October, just after the first presidential debate. Obama has spent most of October fighting off Republican candidate and former Massachusetts Gov…
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Live Polls Show Obama With Bigger Leads In Ohio (CHART)
How tight is the presidential race in Ohio? It depends who’s polling. Surveys of the Buckeye State have been all over the board in recent weeks as the election draws near. While most show President Obama with the lead, the size of it depends on whether the pollster was using human beings or robots to do the interviewing. TPM compared the two methods and found that polls conducted by a live interviewer, the method widely considered to be the gold standard, have shown the President…
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The Sandy Effect: Hurricane Could Disrupt Voting And Polls
Hurricane Sandy, currently on a direct course for the East Coast, is sending residents across multiple states scrambling to prepare for heavy wind, rain, and snow. The Obama and Romney campaigns are surely taking stock of its effects as well.
The implications for the election are uncertain, as is the path and extent of the storm’s damage. But given that it’s projected to directly impact such states as North Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, there’s plenty of potential for disruption.
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DARPA’s Robotics Challenge Marches On
The Department of Defense’s Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is moving ahead at full steam in its quest to develop, or spur the development of, humanoid robots that it can use for its own purposes – in this case, disaster response in areas too dangerous for humans but in need of a human touch (DARPA cites the Fukushima nuclear reactor meltdown as one example). On Thursday, DARPA announced it would begin immediately accepting admissions from the general public for the…
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McCain Dumps On Powell Again: He ‘Got Us Into Iraq’
John McCain had some more critical words for Colin Powell on Friday, saying the former Secretary of State’s involvement in the Iraq War should hurt his political appeal. Powell endorsed Obama this week for a second straight election.
“Colin Powell, interestingly enough, said that Obama got us out of Iraq,” McCain told the National Review. “But it was Colin Powell, with his testimony before the U.N. Security Council, that got us into Iraq.”
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Ronald Reagan Made A ‘First Time’ Voting Joke 32 Years Before Lena Dunham Did
Some conservative were outraged Thursday, when the Obama campaign posted a Web ad starring Lena Dunham, creator of the TV show “Girls,” in which she speaks about her “first time” voting, using innuendo to compare it to a girl losing her virginity. “Your first time shouldn’t be with just anybody. You want to do it with a great guy…someone who really cares about and understands women,” Dunham said in the video, discussing such issues as health insurance, birth control, ending the war …
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Pro Same-Sex-Marriage PAC Backs Candidate Who Equates Gay Marriage With Bigamy, Polygamy
American Unity PAC, a Republican super PAC aimed at expanding support for same-sex marriage, was announced with great fanfare in June. But it may not be living up to the hype: one of the congressional candidates it’s supporting with hundreds of thousands in TV ads is not only publicly opposed to same-sex marriage, she also just equated the practice with polygamy and bigamy. Rep. Judy Biggert (R-IL) may not be what the establishment who fawned over American Unity PAC had in mind when …
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Current TV Considers Putting Itself Up For Sale
Current TV is considering putting itself up for sale, or entering into a partnership with another company, a spokesperson at the independent and politically progressive cable company told TPM Friday.
While nothing is formal yet, Laura Nelson, Current’s senior vice president for communications, said, “We’re exploring strategic options, including sale, also including partnerships or straight investment.”
Read More →
Once Again, John Sununu’s At The Center Of A Race Blow Up
Top Romnney surrogate John Sununu is in the news for comments related to the president’s race. Again. This time it was Sununu’s claim that Colin Powell, like Sununu an important figure in the George H.W. Bush administration, endorsed Obama this week because they both are black and not because of the president’s record. “Well, I think when you have somebody of your own race that you’re proud of being President of the United States, I applaud Colin for standing with him,” Sununu…
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