Aspiring powers and a new old friendship

Ramin Jahanbegloo, Feb 1, 2009, 01.16am IST
(Ramin Jahanbegloo is an…)

The time is ripe for the US to recognize and accept India's interests in cultivating friendly ties with Iran. The two nations can be considered Asian "rising powers", a status acquired more recently by India than Iran, which has been considered an important "pillar" in US strategic thought since the Cold War.

The dynamics of Indo-Iranian relations are as complex as the competing civilizations they enmesh, and when the interests of superpowers such as the US, Russia and China are introduced into this mix, the relationship becomes loaded with strategic possibilities of vital importance to the world.

While both nations have a long history of traditional cultural links, India's ties with Iran have grown significantly after the Revolution of 1979. Relations were not particularly good before that. The two countries were on opposite sides during the Cold War - Iran under the Shah was a close ally of the US while non-aligned India was close to the Soviets. With the beginning of the 1960s, India-Iran relations started to show signs of improvement, primarily due to the Shah's decision to follow a more independent foreign policy vis-?-vis the US and to improve relations with the USSR. The Iran-USSR d?tente allowed for more relaxed relationships between countries like Iran and India.

But during the 1965 Indo-Pak war, the Shah of Iran provided military sanctuary for the Pakistan Air Force because his regime helped create the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO), of which Pakistan was a member. After the Iranian Revolution of 1979, Iran withdrew from CENTO and dissociated itself from US-friendly countries, including Pakistan. This automatically improved Indo-Iranian relations.

Even so, the India-Iran relationship could not become especially warm because Islamic Iran had little appetite for improving relations with a secular India that was in close collaboration with its arch-enemy - Iraq.

In the 1990s, India and Iran supported Afghanistan's Northern Alliance against the Taliban regime. Both discovered shared security concerns. To this day, they continue to collaborate to support Hamid Karzai's anti-Taliban government. As a result, Iran frequently objected to Pakistan's attempts to draft anti-India resolutions at international organizations such as the OIC.

In January 2003, the then Iranian president Mohammed Khatami visited New Delhi as chief guest at the Republic Day parade. During his visit, important bilateral energy deals were signed and a strategic partnership was established. In January 2005, the Indian Oil Corporation reached agreement with the Iranian firm Petropars to develop a gas block in the South Pars gasfield, home to the world's largest reserves. Just over a year later, India voted twice against Iran at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The second of these votes recommended that Iran's nuclear program be referred to the UN Security Council for violating international obligations.

Though India took a somewhat rhetorical beating from President Ahmadinejad's government, the IAEA votes did not undermine its energy relations with Iran, including prospects for the pipeline. There are many reasons for this. First, Iran figures heavily in India's national security interests as a nation with which a strategic partnership is most desirable. Second, both countries have strategic convergence on Afghanistan's political independence and stability. Third, Iran offers a significant, vast and nearby market for India's trade and industry. Iran's trade with India crossed $13 billion in 2007, an 80% increase in volume within a year. Fourth, Iran provides India access by land to Central Asian markets. Fifth, India is believed to be home to one of the world's largest Shia communities outside Iran. Last but not least, there is a small Indian community in Iran. There are also small communities in India who trace their ancestry to Iran, and around 8,000 Iranian students are enrolled at universities in India.

All these mutual convergences have resulted in the asserting and crafting of a "strategic partnership" as highlighted in the Teheran Declaration (2001) and the Delhi Declaration (2003). India's leaders are likely to continue their opposition to an Iranian nuclear weapons program, though they are also likely to continue to pursue a vigorous energy relationship and a security connection in order to have access to Pakistan's strategic backyard. The burgeoning cooperation between Iran and India, particularly in the defence sector, will have implications for Pakistan.

It will certainly promote the stabilization and development of Central Asia, but can also help to create a bridge between Iran and the US in their future dialogue.

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