State Dept. Addresses Ongoing Jordan Unrest

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The U.S. Department of State responded to anti-government protests in Jordan by stating that they respect the right to protest, so long as it is done peacefully. The spokesperson, Mark Toner, expressed support for King Abduallah II’s “roadmap for reform” while also supporting “the aspirations of the Jordanian people to foster a more inclusive political process.” Toner however, refused to comment on whether or not the International Monetary Fund should reduce pressure on Jordan to quell the unrest. When asked if he would like to see Jordan become a constitutional monarchy, Toner simply stated that it was a “[question] for the Jordanian people to decide.”

Since protests began 17 civilians and 58 policemen have been injured, one killed, and 158 protesters have been arrested. According to General Hussein Majali, director of the Public Security Department, “freedom of expression is guaranteed [but] should be peaceful.” He lamented that the state would not allow “harm [to] public or private facilities or citizens” and that security would “strike with an iron fist,” at anyone using illegal means to express their anger.

The IMF’s bi-annual outlook for the Middle East and North Africa asserted that economic growth in Jordan is dependent on “a partial return to political stability” in 2013. According to the report “growth is expected to remain below long-term trends, and unemployment is expected to increase owing to continued anemic external demand, high food and fuel commodity prices, regional tensions and policy uncertainty.” Masood Ahmed, Director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, admitted that the organization had underestimated economic challenges in the region. An article published by Reuters noted that while Saudi Arabia bailed Jordan out of a similar situation in 2011 with a $1.4 billion dollar loan, this time they have not.

Human Rights in Bahrain: Assessing Progress on the One-Year Anniversary of the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry Report

On November 14, Americans for Democracy & Human Rights in Bahrain held a panel discussion, entitled “Human Rights in Bahrain: Assessing Progress on the One-Year Anniversary of the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry Report,” to discuss the current status of implementation of the BICI recommendations. The panel featured Mohammad al-Tajer, co-founder and President of Bahrain Rehabilitation & Anti-Violence Organization (BRAVO), Dr. Fatima Haji, co-founder and Director of Training and Development at BRAVO, Brian Dooley, Director of Human Rights First, Richard Sollom, Deputy Director at Physicians for Human Rights, and was moderated by Husain Abdulla, Director of American for Human Rights & Democracy in Bahrain.

For full event notes continue reading, or click here for a PDF.

 

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Assessing Bahrain’s Implementation of the BICI Report

Photo Credit: Jennifer Love King

The Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED) has released, “One Year Later: Assessing Bahrain’s Implementation of the BICI Report,” a report looking into the Bahraini government’s progress in implementing the recommendations of the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry. POMED has found that the Government of Bahrain has fully implemented three of the BICI report’s 26 recommendations. Two other recommendations were impossible to properly evaluate due to a lack of available information, and we have found 15 recommendations to have only been only partially implemented. Finally, the government has made no meaningful progress toward six of the recommendations, which POMED believes are  the most important steps that need to be taken – accountability for officials responsible for torture and severe human rights violations, the release of political prisoners, prevention of sectarian incitement, in addition to the relaxation of censorship and controls on free expression.

To access the full report, please click here.

New POMED Report: “One Year Later: Assessing Bahrain’s Implementation of the BICI Report”

The Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED) has released, “One Year Later: Assessing Bahrain’s Implementation of the BICI Report,” a report looking into the Bahraini government’s progress in implementing the recommendations of the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry. POMED has found that the Government of Bahrain has fully implemented three of the BICI report’s 26 recommendations, and has made no meaningful progress toward six of the recommendations. Two other recommendations are were impossible to properly evaluate due to a lack of available information, and we have found the remaining 15 recommendations to have only been only partially implemented. Finally, the government has made no meaningful progress toward six of the recommendations, which POMED believes are  the most important steps that need to be taken – accountability for officials responsible for torture and severe human rights violations, the release of political prisoners, prevention of sectarian incitement, and the relaxation of censorship and controls on free expression.

To access the full report, please click here.

Oman Announces Date for Municipal Elections

Photo Credit: Middle East Online

Interior Minister Sayyid Hamoud bin Faisal al-Busaidi of Oman announced today that elections for Municipal Councils will be held on December 22. Roughly 1,636 candidates, including 49 women, will compete for a total of 192 seats in 11 municipal councils throughout the country in the first ever municipal elections in Oman. However, the councils will not hold executive powers, according to a decree issued by Sultan Qaboos last year that states the councils will “present recommendations regarding improving municipal services.” Dr. Hussein Shehadeh, in an article for Middle East Online, argues there is need for an “intensive awareness campaign … to enlighten [citizens] about the municipal council…[and] clarify why a particular person is selected and not another.”

Jordanians Protest Against King Amid Rising Gas Prices

Photo Credit: AP/Raad Adayleh

Protests erupted across Jordan after the government announced its decision to remove fuel subsidies, causing gas prices to rise by 54 percent. Approximately 2,000 demonstrators “burned tires, smashed traffic lights and blocked roads” while burning photos of the king and shouting anti-government slogans. Murad Adailah of the Islamic Action Front stated, “This is the highest peak of tension that I’ve seen since the beginning of the Arab Spring,” while Zaki Bani Irsheid, vice chairman of the Muslim Brotherhood, insisted the movement includes secularists and is focused on creating a  “Jordanian spring” with aims of “reforming [the] regime and keeping [it] peaceful.” The U.S. Embassy in Jordan issued an official emergency message warning U.S. citizens to defer any non-essential travel and avoid spontaneous or planned demonstrations as they could escalate into violence.  The Embassy confirmed protesters had “blocked major highways” and that “security services have used non-lethal measures to disperse crowds.”

The price increases were intended to “reduce a massive budget deficit and secure a $2 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund,” as the government is believed to be on the brink of economic disaster. Fadi Ghandour, CEO of Aramex, addressed the protesters on Twitter stating, “political parties that are protesting and demonstrating today have to propose solutions to #Jordan’s economic problems, not only protest.” Pete Moore of the Middle East Research and Information Project wrote an op-ed critiquing theories of what causes uprisings in the Middle East and how they should apply to Jordan but have not. Though he suggests Jordan may have been experiencing a slow revolution all along, U.S. influence and a number of missing intangible factors which were present in other countries have prevented radical upheaval.

Why Syria’s Bashar al-Assad is Still in Power

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Randa Slim, in a piece for Foreign Policy, outlined why President Bashar al-Assad is still in power despite international calls for him to step down and a growing civil war in Syria. Slim points out that Assad’s inner circle remains strong, despite a bombing in July that killed four members of the regime, in addition to numerous defections. The high-profile defections of Prime Minister Riad Hijab and former Republican Guard commander Manaf Tlass were viewed by Assad as a form of “self-cleansing.” Slim notes that although the inner circle is shrinking, it is becoming increasingly determined and bold.

Additionally, the Syrian military remains an imposing force with an estimated 295,000 soldiers, and 314,000 more in reserve. Although reports of defection are consistent, Free Syrian Army commander Qassim Saadeddine confirmed that defectors represent only 30 percent of the FSA’s ranks. Additionally, the rebel force appears to have discouraged defection: “a recent YouTube video showing rebels executing a group of unarmed Syrian soldiers will only convince other soldiers to stick with the regime,” Slim points out.

Although some Alawites back the opposition’s rebellion, the community remains generally supportive of the Assad regime. Slim places heavy emphasis on the Alawite community, saying “any hope for regime implosion rests on Alawites’ de-linking their physical survival from Assad’s political survival.” Robert Fisk echoed similar sentiments in an article for The Independent.

Finally, there are concerns that the Syrian opposition remains fractured, despite the recent creation of the Syrian National Coalition. Although various groups have been working on a contingency plan, called the “Day After” project, Slim argues “there is not yet a common political vision of how to get from now to the day after Assad’s fall.” She notes that jihadist groups are on the rise, while the activists and civic groups who launched the initial uprising have been increasingly marginalized. Slim warns that “no matter who takes the helm of the Syrian regime in the future, they will be forced to deal with an empowered citizenry that will no longer accept being ruled by an iron fist.”

Funds Pledged for European Endowment for Democracy

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The European Commission announced the allocation of six million euro for the European Endowment for Democracy (EED), an organization that was proposed in December of 2011. Poland, who spearheaded the launch, committed an additional five million euro to the EED, while other countries are expected to contribute in the coming weeks. The goal of the EED is to “help actors of change and emerging players … in a coherent, concerted effort to promote deep and sustainable democracy as well as respect for human rights and the rule of law.” All funds allocated to target beneficiaries will come from voluntary contributions from European Union member states or private foundations, and the EED will be governed by its own statute and governing body.

Brookings Doha Center: Between Interference and Assistance: The Politics of International Support in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya

The Brookings Doha Center and The Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World released a November 2012 paper entitled, “Between Interference and Assistance: The Politics of International Support in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya.” The publication was co-authored by Salman Shaikh, Director of the Brookings Doha Center, and Shadi Hamid, Director of Research at the Brookings Doha Center. The working group brought together a “diverse group of mainstream Islamists, Salafists, liberals, and leftists, along with U.S. and European officials” for the purpose of discussing “economic recovery, civil society development, regional security, and the role of the United States and other international actors.”

The paper focuses on a number of post-revolutionary challenges facing the new governments in Libya, Egypt, and Tunisia. In Tunisia, the new ruling party has experienced its own angry protests over a slow economy and claims of excessive force by the security apparatus. In Egypt, political polarization has ensued and internal conflicts have raised serious questions about the balance of power within the newly formed government, especially in the absence of a finalized constitution. In Libya, Islamist parties were unexpectedly defeated in the first parliamentary elections however, “tribal divisions continue to threaten national unity” and issues of transnational justice continue to dominate the post-Qadhafi era.

U.S. foreign assistance was deemed critical in guaranteeing successful democratic transitions, but it continues to face a “perception gap.” U.S. policy is “to promote reform across the region, and to support transitions to democracy,” but some still see conflicting impulses to both “provide support to dictators” as well as “stand side by side with the people.” While U.S. officials argued that they have drastically changed their policy in supporting the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt at the risk of angering their allies in the Gulf, some still perceive them as being behind the revolutionary curve in the Middle East, criticizing them for continuing to “arm, fund, and otherwise support many of the region’s most autocratic countries.”

Though U.S. assistance is critical, to what degree it should be conditioned is debated. Increased assistance with “economic recovery, civil society engagement, and regional security” were deemed important, but requirements for conditions were said to risk being perceived as political interference. As the paper states, there is a “fine line between encouraging political reform and exercising political influence.” Egyptian leaders urge that conditional aid “should focus on transparency and good governance, but not on specific political decisions.” Despite calls for increased civil society engagement, the paper warns that the wrong types of engagement can be misconstrued as promoting partisanship or “foreign agendas,” even if it advances civil rights and national dialogue. Enhanced security was also listed as vital to transition, but when promoted by an outside actor the paper warns that “any stability that compromises people’s rights and dignity [is] illusory.” Israel is also a critical factor as popular sentiment in these countries are typically not in line with U.S. interests regarding security and stability.

Ex-Qadhafi Prime Minister Trial Postponed, New Protest Law Passed

Photo Credit: Libya Herald

The trial of ex-Qahafi Prime Minister Baghdadi al-Mahmoudi began on November 12, but was adjourned until December 10 to allow the defense and prosecution additional time to review case documents. Mahmoudi has been charged with embezzlement and corruption, in addition to the alleged order for mass-rape during the Libyan revolution. His extradition from Tunisia in June caused a deep row between the country’s President, Moncef Marzouk, and Prime Minister, Hamadi Jebali, who authorized the move. Mahmoudi’s lawyer Mabrouk Korshid said Mahmoudi should not be standing trial in Libya today following a “null and illegal” decision to extradite him from Tunisia, adding that there are “no guarantees for a fair trial” in Libya.

The Libyan National Congress recently passed legislation to limit the conditions under which citizens are permitted to organize protests. “All planned demonstrations must have a leader and at least two members whose names must be listed in the notice given to the security directorate stipulating where the demonstration will be taking place,” states the new law. Protesters are prohibited from carrying weapons of any kind during planned demonstrations and failure to comply with prescribed regulations could result in the cancellation of the demonstration, in addition to a maximum six-month prison sentence and 5,000 dinar fine levied on protest organizers.

Carol Giancomo wrote an opinion piece discussing the role of women in the Middle East’s transitional countries. While men continue to dominate the leadership positions of these countries, she argues that women are increasingly asserting themselves in order to define the future of the Arab world. However, she points out that the Syrian National Coalition and Libyan National Congress have failed to appoint women to key decision-making roles, while  Egyptian and Tunisian women have had to protest the inclusion of restrictive language in their constitutional drafts. Giancomo quoted Tunisian-American activist Mabrouka M’barek who said, “This is a critical time. There are two steps in a revolution: You break it and then you build something new. That’s the hardest.”

Syrian National Coalition Gains International Support

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The newly formed National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces gained further legitimacy with backing from the Arab League and support from the international community. U.S. State Department deputy spokesman Mark Toner released a statement saying, “We look forward to supporting the National Coalition as it charts a course toward the end of Assad’s bloody rule and the start of the peaceful, just, democratic future that all the people of Syria deserve.” Reading from the League’s resolution, Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, Qatari prime minister and foreign minister, said “The Arab League ministerial council welcomes the agreement that the Syrian opposition parties reached … and calls on the other opposition parties to join this coalition.” The six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council unanimously agreed to recognize the coalition as “as the legitimate representative of the brotherly Syrian people,” said GCC chief Abdullatif al-Zayani. Meanwhile, groups within Syria have cautiously given their support to the new leadership council. “Any step toward a united Syria makes us happy. I don’t care if they never come to Syria, as long as they want to help us this is good,” said Shadi Hafeez, a fighter in the Free Syrian Army.

The new opposition group, which includes leadership spots reserved for minorities and for representatives of provincial revolutionary committees on the ground, expects more humanitarian and military aid from the international community. However, U.S. Ambassador Robert Ford reportedly told the groups negotiating in Doha last week that they should not expect U.S. military assistance, even if they did establish a new opposition council. Yet, coalition spokesman Yaser Tabbara said, “I believe the international community is ready to invest in the opposition both militarily and politically. That is the sense we got in Doha.” If the new coalition is recognized by key U.S. allies, namely Britain and France, as Syria’s new government, pressure would also grow on Washington to abandon its reluctance to provide sophisticated weaponry.

Blogger’s Death Investigated, Iran to Hold Syrian Dialogue

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The Iranian parliament began investigating the death of Iranian blogger Sattar Beheshti, who died in police custody after being arrested on charges of “actions against national security on social networks and Facebook.” Prosecutor Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejehi said, “The coroner’s office has provided a detailed report saying that signs of wounds were found in five places on this person’s body.” Iranian news agency Shabekeh-ye Iran reported(Farsi) that three of Beheshti’s interrogators have been arrested. The U.S. State Department released a statement saying “Beheshti is just one of thousands of victims of the Iranian government’s campaign of violent repression,” and called the death “suspicious.”

Meanwhile, Iran announced it will host a Syrian national dialogue meeting next week. “Syrian government officials as well as representatives of ethnic, political, minority, and opposition groups will attend this meeting,” said Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister of Arab African Affairs Hossein Amir Abdollahian. There is no indication that the recently formed Syrian National Coalition will attend the talks, which will center around ending the violence in Syria and promoting diplomacy.

Egyptian Groups Push Back against IMF Loan

Photo Credit: Reuters – Asmaa Waguih

According to Finance Minister Mumtaz al-Said, the Egyptian government expects to sign a memorandum of understanding with the International Monetary Fund for a $4.8 billion loan. Reuters says, “The government wants the $4.8 billion IMF loan to help it narrow a budget deficit running at 11 percent of gross domestic product and a balance of payments deficit that has gobbled up more than $20 billion of its foreign reserves since the uprising that toppled Hosni Mubarak in February 2011.” The cabinet will convene with President Mohamed Morsi to review the government’s “comprehensive development plan” on Tuesday, Prime Minister Hisham Kandil said.

In response, 18 groups sent a letter to Morsi asking him to forgo the IMF deal, saying that the process has “lacked transparency on the part of both the IMF and the Government of Egypt.”  The letter says the system of public scrutiny for the loan was exclusionary, and suggests that due to the lack of a functioning parliament, “any agreement under these circumstances would contravene the democratic principle of separation of powers and Egypt’s longstanding constitutional requirement of parliamentary oversight over executive decisions.” Bloomberg says, “Among the signatories are three political parties affiliated with former presidential candidates, and a party set up by Muslim Brotherhood’s youth wing. The April 6th Movement [...] has signed the letter, as well as unions active in Egypt’s labor movement.”

In other news, Egypt’s interior ministry was reshuffled, creating two new divisions within the ministry: a human rights section headed by Major-General Hussein Othman, the former ministerial aide for the West Delta zone, and a social communication sector headed by Major-General Abu Bakr Abdel Karim, the former secretary of the media and public relations department. Meanwhile, President Morsi is scheduled to visit Germany in January 2013.

Finally, Hussein Shobokshi writes “the political immaturity, sometimes reaching the extent of stupidity, which we have seen many times in the Arab Spring states, regarding the way in which new political regimes deal with political upheavals taking place, is not only a cause for concern, but a cause for sorrow and alarm as well.” Carol Giacomo talks about the role of women in transitional countries, saying women are “increasingly asserting themselves” and that post-Arab Spring states “will not succeed unless women are fully incorporated into political and economic life.”

Bahrain Deploys National Guard, Kuwaitis Protest Upcoming Election

Photo Credit: Mohammad al-Shaikh/AFP/Getty Images

Bahraini authorities deployed the National Guard to “strategic locations” around the country in order to contain demonstrations and outbreaks of violence. Hadi al-Musawi, a spokesman for the main opposition group al-Wefaq, said Guard troops were seen setting up in Sitra, a center of the revolt. The decision came after a series of explosions in Gudaibya and Adliya which killed two people, and recent clashes at a mosque in Diraz. Police attempted to bar access to the mosque as thousands of opposition members converged to hear a sermon from the kingdom’s most prominent Shia cleric, Sheikh Isa Qassim. Witnesses say the gathering erupted into violence as police fired tear gas on the crowd. Additionally, a Bahraini court sentenced 19 Shia opposition members to five years in prison for the attempted murder of policemen in 2011.

An estimated 18,000 Kuwaiti protesters demonstrated in front of parliament in Kuwait City. Opposition members called for a boycott of the election to select the country’s fifth parliament in six years, and for a government that is elected rather than appointed by the ruling al-Sabah family.  Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah has indicated that the proposed electoral rules are aimed at preserving national unity and warned that those who assembled illegally would be treated as a threat to national security. ”We have to be aware of the growing dangers in the region and must be aware that this shrapnel is falling around us,” he said in a speech marking the 50th anniversary of Kuwait’s constitution. Meanwhile, authorities released two members of the royal family who were detained for posting  tweets deemed to be critical of the regime. ”I asked them [police] to refer me to the public prosecution to defend myself from the horrifying accusations, but they insisted that I sign a pledge and they released me,”  said Sheikh Abdullah Salem al-Sabah.

Conservative Egyptians Call for “More Religious” Constitution

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Thousands of Egyptian conservatives and Salafis assembled in Tahrir Square on November 9 to call for the inclusion of more religious language in the constitution. ”Sharia is our constitution,” and, “The people demand the application of God’s law,” protesters chanted. Conservatives have pushed to change the wording of the constitution’s second amendment to guarantee that  the “principles of Sharia” be the basis of legislation. In an effort to appease the Islamists, the constitutional assembly has discussed adding an article which specifically lays out the principles of Sharia law. ”People are scared of the application of Sharia, but I am telling Muslims and Christians and everyone that Islam is a mercy on all of us because it is based on the Quran’s rules,” protester Gaber Mohammed said.

The protests followed another week of non-consensus in the Constitutional Assembly. Members of the assembly continue to remain at odds over vast portions of the constitution including laws overseeing the political, military and judicial sectors of government. Secularists have alleged that the Islamists are using their majority to impose their ideology on the final draft, and some have threatened to withdraw from the assembly altogether. Despite the range of disputes, members of the Islamist camp have hinted that a final draft would be submitted within the next two weeks. Assembly chairman Hossam el-Ghiryani conceded that ”time is running out and we should begin an article-by-article discussion of the final draft of the constitution next Sunday.”

Turkish foreign ministry spokesman Amr Roshdi announced that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will visit Egypt on November 17. Erdogan will be accompanied by 12 Turkish ministers in what the spokesman described as ”the largest in the history of diplomatic relations between the two countries.”

Syrian National Council Hits Roadblocks in Doha

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The Syrian National Council (SNC) announced that a 40-member general secretariat was elected, which will be led by George Sabra.  Former parliamentarian and opponent of the Assad regime Riad Seif has also proposed an alternative representative body for the opposition, which was backed by several foreign governments including the U.S. The Seif plan would create a 50 or 60-member body with between 15 and 24 seats reserved for the SNC. Britain’s Foreign Secretary William Hague stated that “the longer the conflict in Syria goes on, the greater…the opportunity for extremist groups to gain a foothold,” in an attempt to urge the opposition to unite.

Meanwhile, the all-male leadership of Syria’s main opposition frustrated female delegates of the Syrian National Council (SNC) conference. “The bottom line is that there is a recognition that the women got shafted, and that it has to be fixed,” said delegate Muna Jundy. The SNC said they will address the imbalance by appointing four female candidates by decree. U.S. State Department Spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said the U.S. hopes to “see all of the geographic aspects of Syria represented so that people inside Syria will feel comfortable with this group.”

Assad Defiant, West Reexamines Approach to Syria

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In an interview with Russia Today scheduled to be broadcast on Friday, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad stated his belief that the West will not intervene militarily in the Syrian conflict, saying “I think that the price of this invasion, if it happened, is going to be bigger than the whole world can afford.” Assad also vowed to “live and die” in Syria, days after British Prime Minister David Cameron suggested Assad might be granted safe passage out of Syria if he guaranteed an end to the civil war.

The interview comes as Britain announced its plans to reexamine previously discarded options for dealing with the conflict in Syria. “Let’s be frank, what we’ve done for the last 18 months hasn’t been enough,” Cameron said. One of the possibilities includes arming Syrian rebels, which is currently prohibited under the terms of a European Union arms embargo that expires December 1. Britain also said it would begin talking directly with armed rebels in Syria.

Britain is pushing the United States to be more involved in the Syria crisis in the wake of U.S. elections. ‘‘With the reelection of Obama, what you have is a strong confidence on the British side that the U.S. administration will be engaged more on Syria from the get-go,’’ said Shashank Joshi, an analyst at London’s Royal United Services Institute. Whitney Eulich argued that “nowhere is the absence of American leadership felt more keenly than in Syria today. It cries out for post-election attention.”

Middle East Challenges Loom Following Obama Re-election

Photo Credit: Doug Mills/The New York Times

Barack Obama won a second term presidential term on November 6, defeating Republican candidate Mitt Romney. Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi congratulated Obama, stressing the importance of reinforcing bilateral relations between the two nations. However, Amena Bakr highlighted that many in the Middle East are glad Obama won, but they aren’t ecstatic. Saudi political analyst Khaled al-Dakheel agreed. “I have the feeling that people in the region are not as enthusiastic as they were in 2008 about the whole American presidential campaign,” he said.

“Mr. Obama finds himself in the enviable position of being free to set policy without worrying about the next election,” The National noted. “But the window of opportunity between being an effective president and a lame-duck leader is short.” Tamara Cofman Wittes said four main challenges for the administration in the Middle East include the Syrian situation, engagement with new practitioners of Arab Democracy, leveraging positive American involvement, and sustaining support for democratic reform region-wide, even where America has keen security interests at stake.

However, Steven Heydemann, a Middle East expert at the United States Institute for Peace, expressed doubt that there would be immediate changes to policy on Syria. “I don’t think it will be on a list of the priorities for the new administration in the immediate aftermath of the election,” Heydemann said. Christopher Preble, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the CATO Institute, agreed, saying U.S. public opinion against any new U.S. military interventions is unlikely to shift, “barring some very dramatic change.”

Syrian Opposition Deliberates in Doha

Photo Credit: Osama Faisal/AP

The withdrawal of international backing has prompted the Syrian National Council to expand its membership and elect new leadership. During the Syrian opposition’s Doha summit, the SNC voted to enlarge  its ranks to 420 members. Prior to the summit, prominent dissident Riad Seif had proposed an alternative 50-member unity council, including 15 seats for the SNC. On November 6 he amended the plan, offering the SNC 22 seats in a new 60-seat arrangement. Seif’s initiative is scheduled to be debated in a final meeting of the broader Syrian opposition on November 8. Outgoing SNC chief Abdelbaset Sieda said the SNC should retain a “central role” in any opposition configuration, and warned that “any action targeting the [SNC] will intentionally or unintentionally prolong the life of the regime.”

State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland confirmed the U.S. position on the matter saying, “We are looking for the same thing that the Syrian opposition inside Syria has been calling for, which is an opposition that represents more of the groups, more of the geographic representation, more of those who have been involved on the ground with local coordinating councils, with revolution councils, et cetera.” Murhaf Jouejati, a Syrian analyst at the National Defense University and former SNC member, said ”what the revolution needs, of course, is to include those military forces on the ground that are doing the revolution, [but] at the top there needs to be a centralization, so when the top takes decisions, the entire body acts accordingly.”

Meanwhile, U.N. envoy Lakhdar Brahimi expressed grave concern over the continuing crisis saying , “People are talking about the risk of partition in Syria. I believe that if this issue is not dealt with correctly, the danger is ‘Somalisation’ and not partition – the collapse of the state and the emergence of warlords, militias and fighting groups.” Additionally, seven Syrian generals defected to Turkey amid continued air strikes across Syria.

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