November 18, 2012
BEIRUT -- The latest flare-up of fighting on the
Gaza-Israel front has generated the usual round of statements and bravado on
both sides, but among the predictability of developments are also some
important new elements. Three of these are in the Arab world, which is not
surprising, given the historic changes taking place across the region. The
responses from Israelis and the United States government, on the other hand,
appear depressingly consistent with Zionism’s history of reliance on military
force as the main instrument of dealing with Palestinians and Arabs, and
Washington’s structurally pro-Israel position in the conflict.
The first and most important thing to say about the rekindled killing across
the Israel-Gaza border is its sheer futility and waste. Neither side has the
ability to completely wipe out the other, for that is what would be required to
end this conflict for good. That will not happen, as both sides have proven
over the past 35 years or so, since Hamas’ emergence in Palestine. Yet they are
willing and able to keep fighting, despite the tremendous cost to their people.
More killing and destruction will not resolve this conflict, but a lack of a
fair and negotiated resolution also means that more killing and destruction are
inevitable. We should note three important new dimensions of the conflict on
the Arab side, about the constantly improving technical capabilities of
Palestinian resistance groups, the emergence of more radical Islamist groups
over time in Gaza and around the region, and the impact of public opinion and
the new, legitimate, governments in power in some Arab states. All three
together suggest that a shift in the strategic balance of power may be underway
in the Middle East, with huge implications.
The more advanced rockets in the hands of Palestinian resistance forces in Gaza
that reached Tel Aviv Thursday generate a significant new dimension of
psychological fear in Israel that mirrors the fear and tension that Israel’s
aerial attacks have long inflicted on Palestinians and Lebanese. The ability of
Palestinians today to fire rockets deeper into Israel, and, presumably, with
more accuracy in due course, is just one indicator of the fact that time is not
on Israel’s side. As long as the crime of dispossession and refugeehood that
was committed against the Palestinian people in 1947-48 is not redressed
through a peaceful and just negotiation that satisfies the legitimate rights of
both sides, we will continue to see enhancements in both the determination and
the capabilities of Palestinian fighters -- as has been the case since the
1930s, in fact. Only stupid or ideologically maniacal Zionists fail to come to
terms with this fact.
It is important to note the remarks by Gaza Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh
Thursday night that Gazans and Palestinians everywhere will keep struggling for
their national rights, with the key issue for them being the Palestinian right
of return. His comments, and the resurgence of fighting, only remind everyone
that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is about what happened in 1947-48, not
only what happened in 1967. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius noted
correctly this week that, "It would be a catastrophe if there is an
escalation in the region. Israel has the right to security but it won't achieve
it through violence. The Palestinians also have the right to a state."
The second major new element in this round of fighting is the steady expansion
of militant Islamists in Gaza, such as Islamic Jihad and other small groups,
who make Hamas look like a relative softie. The rockets being fired into Israel
emanate from several Salafist Islamist groups that have sprung up in Gaza
alongside Hamas in the last decade. This mirrors trends across the Arab world,
where Salafists are serving in newly elected and legitimate parliaments. This
also should serve as a wake-up call to the reality that has reigned since the
1960s: If Israel does not come to terms with the political groups that now hold
power in Palestine and Arab states, it will surely have to deal with more
militant ones in the future.
The third new element is the changed environment in Arab public opinion around
the region, where young new governments more accurately reflect the sentiments
of their citizens vis-à-vis the Palestine issue. We should keep our eyes on how
Tunisians and Egyptians, in particular, react to the Gaza situation. They will
not go to war with Israel, but they are likely to find new and meaningful ways
to express real support for Palestinians, which will increase the political
pressure on Israel.
Where this combination of new elements leads us over time is not yet clear. I
hope it eventually pushes all sides to acknowledge that only a fair,
negotiated, resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian and wider Arab-Israeli
conflicts can serve the legitimate rights of all concerned, in a way that
rockets in Gaza and Tel Aviv never will.
Rami G. Khouri is Editor-at-large of The Daily Star, and
Director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International
Affairs at the American University of Beirut, in Beirut, Lebanon. You can
follow him @ramikhouri.
Copyright © 2012 Rami G. Khouri -- distributed by Agence Global