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Egypt’s president Mohamed Morsi signed an executive order enacting Egypt’s new constitution on December 25. The referendum vote still remains under dispute however, as the National Council for Human Rights reported 1,073 complaints from civil society organizations to the High Judicial Elections Commission. Complaints include “delayed opening of polling stations, influencing voters inside and outside stations, early closing of stations, collective voting and impeding observers.”

The Shura Council held its first session to swear in 90 new members, all of whom are directly appointed by Morsi. Egypt Independent published an exhaustive list of the appointees, which consists of “constitutional experts, eight women, 12 Copts, eight members of Egyptian churches, five members of Al-Azhar and two of the wounded of the revolution.” Despite Morsi’s attempt to broaden the national dialogue, many still oppose the constitution itself.

National Salvation Front (NSF) spokesperson Hussein Abdel-Ghani  labeled the constitution “unrepresentative” and stated that the NSF would continue to fight against it “through all democratic mechanisms, whether through protests, sit-ins and parliamentary elections.” Mohamed ElBaradei of the Constitution Party stated that it should be “treated as an [interim document] until another is written up on the basis of consensus.” He asserted the document  “constrains basic values such as freedom of belief and expression and independence of the judiciary” and that his party would make cancellation of the document their top priority.

The government kept its promise to rescind the military’s power to arrest civilians until a new constitution was in place; the arrest power was formally withdrawn on December 24. On December 25 the United States Department of State released a press statement addressing the new constitution. The State Dept. called on Morsi to acknowledge his “special responsibility to…bridge divisions, build trust, and broaden support for the political process.” The statement also called on those disappointed with the outcome to “seek…deeper engagement,” and for both sides to “commit themselves to condemn and prevent violence.”

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Following a stroke last week, Iraqi President Jalal Talabani’s questionable health led to uncertainty about Iraq’s future. Peter Galbraith addressed these concerns in an opinion piece in Foreign Policy, noting that Iraq currently lacks a successor that could wield the same influence as Talabani in maintaining peace between Iraq’s sectarian factions. He adds that Prime Minister Nouri al-Malaki is generally perceived by opponents to have “increasingly dictatorial tendencies” and as an impediment to the goals of non-Shia’s. This perception intensified on December 23 when thousands of Sunni protestors blocked a main highway between Baghdad, Jordan and Syria. The protests were a result of Iraq’s Shiite led government’s decision to arrest 10 bodyguards of Sunni Finance Minister Rafia al-Issawi, on terrorism charges. The arrests were perceived as al-Maliki “removing political rivals…in the name of democracy and law.”

Officials from the U.S. Department of State addressed some of Iraq’s current issues on December 21, stating that they “urged Iraqi leaders to uphold their commitments to due process and the rule of law as enshrined in the constitution.” State officials also asserted that they support “a constitutional solution to disputes over the management of Iraq’s hydrocarbon resources.” The following day however, Kurdish authorities officially halted crude shipments of oil from the northern region to one of Turkey’s key terminals. According to the Kurds, the move was a result of disagreements over “disputed land, crude sale revenue and energy contracts terms” between the Kurdish Regional Government and Iraq’s central government.

On December 23 the New York Times published a piece by Albert Hunt, highlighting reasons why John Kerry is a smart choice for the next Secretary of State: namely his “intelligence and judgement…knowledge of foreign policy,” and service in Vietnam which is described as “firsthand experience of…’the brutality and stupidity’ of war.” Josh Rogin of Foreign Policy also wrote a piece, providing speculation on who Kerry might place on his staff, if his nomination is confirmed.

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Egypt concluded the second round of its constitutional referendum on December 22 and unofficial results indicate that the draft successfully passed. The Muslim Brotherhood suggested that the initiative garnered a 64 percent “yes” vote, although officials numbers will not be released until December 24. As in the preceding round of voting, the second phase achieved roughly 30 percent turn-out. Again, opposition leaders contended that the referendum was marred by “violations of voting procedures” and called upon elections authorities to withhold the official results until the issues had been investigated. Hamdeen Sabahi, a leftist and former presidential candidate, criticized the proceedings saying,  ”This is a constitution that lacks the most important prerequisite for a constitution: consensus. This means we can’t build our future based on this text at all.” Prior to the referendum, Bassem Sabry wrote, “There is a real opportunity for Egypt’s opposition to come out of the current upheaval… as a stronger and more integrated political force whose fortunes and support are on the rise. The key, however, is to stop making the same mistakes.”

Meanwhile, Egyptian Vice President Mahmoud Mekky resigned his position ahead of the referendum’s conclusion. Al-Arabiya speculated the “timing of his resignation appeared linked to the lack of a vice-presidential post under the draft constitution.”

In other news, an Egyptian court announced that it would rule on the life-sentence appeals of former President Hosni Mubarak former Interior Minister Habib al-Adli, as well as corruption charges appeals of Mubarak’s sons, Alaa and Gamal.  The court will make its decisions on January 13.

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Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah proclaimed earlier this week, “Anyone who thinks that the armed opposition is capable of [winning] the military battle is very mistaken,’” referring to the conflict in Syria. Russian President Vladimir Putin on the other hand, suggested that Assad is losing power and re-iterated Russia’s position that “only a negotiated agreement could ‘prevent a breakup of the country and an endless civil war.’” Putin drew parallels to Libya where he asserted that “intervention by…Western nations had caused more harm than good” given Libya’s continuing instability. Putin expressed concern that the Assad government and the Syrian opposition would just trade places, “with the rebels in power but with the fighting unabated.”

The U.N.’s special commission on Syria released a new report on December 20 that stated the conflict between government forces and the opposition had “become overtly sectarian in nature.” The report also noted that minority groups in the country have been pulled into the conflict and that they are being forced to take sides along sectarian lines; which are predominantly split between the pro-government Alawite community and the anti-government majority Sunni community. Accounts of violations of international human rights and humanitarian law are also addressed in the report.

A recent article in Foreign Policy by Colum Lynch spoke of “mounting concern” that Assad’s overthrow would “trigger the dissolution of the Syrian state…generating the kind of sectarian violence and chaos” that was seen in Iraq in 2003, and that a U.N. force would not be able to address such a crisis. The concerns were further vindicated in U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon’s year end press conference when he stated: “We do not see any prospect of any end of violence or any prospect of political dialogue to start.” Christopher Phillips of Chatham House also released a December 2012 briefing paper outlining the effects of Syrian conflict on Turkey, and how Turkey has changed its foreign policy in support of Assad’s overthrow.

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At a Foreign Relations Committee briefing to discuss findings of the Accountability Review Board report on the September 11 Benghazi attack, Deputy Secretary of State William J. Burns lamented that “we have to do better.” Also speaking at the hearing, Deputy Secretary of State Thomas Nides noted that the State Department has already converted recommendations into “60 specific action items” to ensure a similar event does not happen again. Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) said “congress also bears some responsibility here,” adding that “we have asked our State Department to operate with increasingly lesser resources to conduct essential missions. That must change.”

In the wake of a report on the attack that killed Ambassador Christopher Stevens, four U.S. State Department officials have resigned. The resigning officials include Eric J. Boswell, Assistant Secretary of State for Diplomatic Security, Charlene R. Lamb, Deputy Assistant Secretary responsible for embassy security, Raymond Maxwell, Deputy Assistant Secretary responsible for North Africa, and another official in the diplomatic security office whom officials declined to identify. Testifying in a hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, top State Department officials vowed “to improve security at U.S. diplomatic posts around the world, some before the end of the year.”

“It seems that, finally, the months after the deadly attack, soberer attitudes prevailed in the discussion of Benghazi on Capitol Hill,” said Sara Sorcher in the National Journal. However, the editorial board at the New York Times noted that “important questions about Benghazi remain unanswered – and the most important piece of accountability remains untackled.” Let’s not forget about the mess we left in Benghazi, argued Marty Fitzgerald and Umar Khan in Foreign Policy. “While heads are rolling in Washington … tensions in Libya’s second largest city continue to rise,” the article said.

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee held a hearing on Thursday (12/20) entitled “Benghazi: The Attack and the Lessons Learned.” The hearing featured testimony by William Burns, Deputy Secretary of State, and Thomas Nides, Deputy Secretary of State for Management and Resources, with Senator John Kerry (D-MA) presiding. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was originally scheduled to appear, but was unable to attend due to illness.

For full notes continue reading, or click here for a PDF. Read more…

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Omanis abroad began voting earlier this week in Oman’s first municipal council elections, which will conclude with the official voting day of December 22. Omanis have a choice of 1,475 candidates, including 46 women, to fill 192 seats for 11 municipal councils across the country. Last-minute preparations were made for the elections, which the government hopes will “stem discontent about graft and lack of jobs.” Meanwhile, an appeal court upheld sentences against 22 Omani activists last week, who were serving jail terms for wrongful gathering and insulting the sultan. However, the court delayed a hearing for nine activists, and set a court date of January 2, 2013 for six of them.

In Kuwait, the government shut down al-Youm, a private television station known for backing the opposition, for “failing to meet administrative conditions.” The move came as the Emir released a statement criticizing the opposition for stirring “chaos” at demonstrations on December 14 outside parliament. Concerns over the effects a new election law had on recent voting have continued to grow. Meanwhile, the “United States has been quietly reducing its military presence in Kuwait,” while helping train the Kuwaiti military.

The Abu Dhabi office of the RAND Corporation has been closed by the United Arab Emirates. “We were asked by the authorities in Abu Dhabi to close the office,” director at RAND’s offices for media relations Jeffrey Hiday said, although he declined to comment on the reason for the closure, and no official statement was made available by the government. Meanwhile, the UAE released new instructions making it mandatory that every company and government agency have a female board member.

President Abd al-Rab Mansur al-Hadi issued a sweeping decree on Wednesday night aimed at consolidating and reforming Yemen’s security sector, removing two of Yemen’s most influential players from their current military posts in the process. The “presidential decision,” which was announced on national television with little warning, amounts to the most significant step in Yemen’s transition process since the ouster of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh in February. The decree reorganized Yemen’s military into five units–the army, navy, air force, border force, and strategic reserve forces–thereby abolishing Brigadier General Ahmed Saleh‘s Republican Guard and Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar‘s First Armored Division. Analysts have long viewed Ali Mohsen and Ahmed Saleh, the son of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, as spoilers in Yemen’s political transition, using their forces as personal militias and tools for political leverage. It is not yet clear whether Ali Mohsen and Ahmed Saleh will retain positions in the restructured military command. Speaking on Al-Jazeera, Ali Mohsen reportedly endorsed Hadi’s decision as necessary and in line with the GCC transition plan.

Early reactions to Hadi’s decree were generally optimistic, despite continued questions and suspicions. Writing on Twitter, the influential pseudonymous activist NoonArabia said, “Today one of the goals of #Yemen revolution has been achieved, restructuring the army & dismissing Saleh’s relatives from its leadership.” Journalist Casey Coombs  reported that ”today’s presidential decrees [were] unthinkable 10 months ago when President Hadi entered office. Uncertain calm over Sanaa tonight.” Journalist Tik Root and youth activist Ibrahim Mothana expressed concern that Saleh might fight back against the reforms, but Mothana added that “it’s too late for change to be reversed!” Yemen scholar Gregory Johnsen concurred that the decree was important, but he also stressed that “no one…knows what is next.”

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The United States Institute of Peace released a report entitled “Middle East in 2013: Promise and (Lots of) Peril,” written by Robin Wright and Garrett Nada. The report examines the state of the uprisings in Libya, Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen, as well as the potential challenges in 2013. In the summary, the authors write that “the Middle East faces even bigger challenges in 2013 than it did during the first two years of the so-called Arab Spring.”

The authors write that Egypt now faces “the most contentious elections since the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak.” Stability in Egypt has yet to be attained and deep fissures “between secular and Islamist activists” have widened. In Tunisia, Nada and Wright note that the “democratic transition has been relatively smooth compared to other countries.” However, there are three major challenges Tunisia will face in 2013: “a crippled economy, a constitutional referendum, and new elections for a permanent government.”

In 2013, Libya will face “two core problems: security and creating a state from scratch after Moammar Qaddafi‘s 42-year rule.” Libya is unique among Arab Spring countries because it “actually has abundant natural resources to begin rebuilding the country.” However, corruption that originated during Qaddafi’s regime is a prime concern. Nada and Wright argue that Yemen faces more challenges than any other country in transition. “Food shortages, sectarian strife, tribal tensions, a secessionist movement, a divided army, al-Qaeda extremists and rampant unemployment have threatened to tear the country apart over the past two years,” they note.

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An independent review board released a report on the Benghazi attack of September 11, 2012 that killed Ambassador Chris Stevens. The report placed blame on “systematic State Department management and leadership failures for gross security lapses.” The report also found however, no “reasonable cause” that any individuals had “engaged in misconduct or willfully ignored” their responsibilities. The report noted failures made in the Diplomatic Security and Near East Affairs Bureaus which “resulted in a Special Mission security posture that was inadequate for Benghazi and grossly inadequate to deal with the attack that took place.” Additionally, the report asserted there were no protests on the day of the attack. Members of the review board Thomas Pickering and Adm. Mike Mullen are scheduled to brief the House Foreign Affairs and Senate Foreign Relations committees in private on 12/19.

“The lack of accountability and detailed explanation for how these lapses occurred and who specifically failed to conduct inquiries, coordinate policy and advice on the growing terrorists problem in Libya is what you’d expect from a government department investigating itself,” fumed Jennifer Rubin in the Washington Post. This Morning Staff of The Wall Street Journal wrote that the report “is likely to rekindle Republican criticism about the administrations handling of the attack.” One of the most notable testimonies missing from the investigation is that of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton who “was scheduled to testify in Thursday’s open hearings,” but cancelled due to a concussion. However, Clinton has “accepted the findings,” notes Andrew Quinn in the Chicago Tribune, and “ordered widespread changes to bolster U.S. diplomatic security overseas.”

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Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad cancelled a scheduled trip to Turkey 12/17, citing a scheduling conflict. With Turkey calling for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down and Iran remaining a vocal ally of the Syrian regime, the cancellation comes at a time when relations between the two nations are strained. When Turkey announced it would allow NATO troops to man Patriot missile systems on its border with Syria, Iran warned that the systems should be dismantled and taken away “before a fire breaks out.” Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davultaglu responded, saying Iran should tell the Syrian government to stop oppressing its own people, instead of provoking Turkey.

Iran’s interior minister, Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar, announced that presidential elections have been scheduled for June 14, 2013. Dr. Hooshang Amirahmadi, a highly-regarded academic running on a platform of “promoting peace and reconciliation between all opposition political factions…and ending hostilities with the United States, Great Britain, and others,” announced his intentions to run for President in the 2013 elections.  Mohammad Reza Aref, another potential reformist candidate for the presidency, said Iran’s political climate is in need of “moderation” and “moderate” forces.

State media in Tehran announced the release of Mahdi Hashemi, son of former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, after he completed a two months jail sentence in solitary confinement, based on charges of acting against the regime and corruption. Many analysts believe the arrest of Hashemi and his sister Faezeh Hashemi, who is currently serving a six-month jail term for spreading anti-state propaganda, was intended to serve as a warning to Rafsanjani. Rafsanjani had been accused of inciting post-election protests in 2009 after backing a reformist challenger to Ahmadinejad.

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The U.S. Department of State called on both sides of the Syrian conflict to “stop unlawful attacks on civilians and comply with international law” on December 17. The call came after reports that a number of civilians had been killed or wounded in the Yarmouk district of Damascus, as a result of air raids and fighting between the government and the opposition. Hundreds of Palestinians fled Yarmouk refugee camp toward Lebanon, prompting a warning from the Syrian government to not assist the opposition in any way. Syrian Alawites have also been forced out of Idlib by members of Jabhat al-Nusra in recent days.

The European Union put “all options on the table to support the Syrian opposition,” including the possibility of supplying non-lethal military equipment or arms. However, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Prime Minister David Cameron were not in agreement as to whether or not a standing arms embargo should be lifted to allow for such action. Thomas Donnelly of the American Enterprise Institute released an op-ed highlighting the Obama administration’s dilemma in addressing Syria’s chemical weapons. Donnelly noted that despite the president’s declaration that movement of chemical weapons is a “red line,” it is “doubtful…that we have…a comprehensive understanding of Syria’s chemical capabilities.” He asserts that aside from a direct ground campaign, the U.S. has little capacity to actually police all of the chemical weapons in the country before they are dispersed to groups such as Hezbollah.

According to Lebanese publication Al-Akhbar, Syria’s vice president Farouk al-Sharaa publicly announced that the Syrian Army cannot defeat the armed rebels and the regime now seeks a negotiated settlement. Al-Sharaa expressed concern that the opposition would only topple the current regime by pushing “the country into chaos and a cycle of violence that has no end,” and that this was not a desirable outcome for anyone. In a recent video the chief of the Syrian intelligence’s public relations division,” Alaaddin al-Sabbagh, declared that he had defected from “the Assad criminal regime” and urged others to do the same.

Photo Credit: Woodrow Wilson Center

To mark the 2nd anniversary of the Arab Spring, the Woodrow Wilson Center released a report, titled “Has the Arab Spring Lived up to Expectations?” The report features opinions from 39 experts from the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, and the United States. In the opening piece, Jane Harman, Director, President, and CEO of the Wilson Center, reminds the reader “transitions are messy,” while Robin Wright, USIP-Wilson Center Distinguished Scholar and journalist agreed that,”revolutions are never fairy tales.”

However, Ammar Abudulhamid, Fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and Founder and Director of the Tharwa Foundation, advocated that, “the fear barrier is now broken; the anciens regimes are gone; and pent-up political forces, with their good, their bad, and their downright ugly, have been released.” Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy, Stephen McInerney, said, “although the road ahead to full-fledged democracies in the Arab world will be a long and arduous one, the journey down that path fundamentally began in 2011.”

“What should be chastening for Western policymakers,” argued Roger Hardy, Senior Visiting Research Fellow, King’s College, London, “is that they are largely powerless to determine the outcome in any of these places.” Vali Nasr, Dean at the John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, cautioned that America and Europe’s “minimalist approach (to the Arab Spring) is a break with the past, a surprising cold shoulder to democracy, and one big reason why the Arab Spring, even where it succeeded, will likely fail.” However, Dalia Ziada, Executive Director at the Ibn Khaldun Center for Development Studies, ends the report with an optimistic view of the future. “We are determined to lead the Arab Spring-our dream of liberal democracy-to the top of the mountain.”

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Libya’s General National Congress announced that it would temporarily close the country’s borders with Niger, Chad, Sudan and Algeria. Additionally, the GNC passed legislation designating the areas around Ghadamis, Ghat, Awbari, Al-Shati, Sebha, Murzuq and Kufra as closed zones of military operations. The southern territories of Libya have been prone to smuggling, violence, and general instability since the 2011 uprising. An anonymous Libyan military official said the government’s main concern is the illegal flow of weapons. The U.S. State Department announced last week that  it provided funding to U.S. Customs and Border Protection to conduct training for 13 officials from the Libyan Ministry of Defense and the Customs Authority, specifically dealing with arms trafficking.

Meanwhile, two police stations in Benghazi were the targets of a what appeared to be a simultaneous coordinated attack.  Officials said they thought the attack was linked to the detention of men suspected of involvement in a series of recent assassinations. On December 16, another police station took RPG fire, killing one police officer. An ensuing gun battle left three more policeman dead.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will forego committee hearings on the Benghazi U.S. consulate attack due to health issues. “Deputy Secretaries of State William Burns and Thomas Nides  will testify to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the House Foreign Affairs Committee in Mrs. Clinton’s place on Thursday,” said Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL). However, answering tough questions about the attack “requires a public appearance by the secretary of state herself,”  she added.

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Large protests in Bahrain came to an abrupt end on Monday as police fired tear gas into the crowd and made a “number of arrests.” The marches today in Manama followed a weekend of unrest in Bahrain, as demonstrators repeatedly took to the streets in response to the king’s speech marking Bahrain’s National Day. The king called for unity and pardoned several hundred prisoners, but opposition forces said that the measures did not go far enough, considering the many political prisoners who remain in jail and the arrest on Monday of Yousef al-Muhafedha, acting head of the Bahrain Center for Human Rights. Opposition group al-Wefaq joined four other political parties on Sunday in a statement that called the political and humanitarian situation in Bahrain “the worst ever.”

“Our ally is terrified of human rights reporting,” Nicholas Kristof wrote from the Manama airport on Monday after the New York Times columnist was denied entry to Bahrain. An article in The Economist discussed the rise in religiously-motivated protests, noting that “Shia religious activism is more visible than ever” in Bahrain. Al-Wefaq, on the other hand, is losing domestic support, according to The National‘s Elizabeth Dickinson. “As the kingdom’s political stalemate has ground on… mounting frustration among once-moderate critics and opponents of the government has translated into growing support for groups whose goals and tactics are more extreme,” Dickinson wrote.

POMED’s Weekly Wire for December 17 is now available. This week includes coverage of these and other top stories:

• Egypt Holds Referendum, IMF & Germany Postpone Monetary Aid

• U.S. Officially Recognizes Syrian Opposition Coalition

• Protests Resume in Bahrain after Ban Lifted

• Yemenis Call for Military Restructuring, Removal of Saleh Remnants

• Kuwait Forms New Cabinet

To continue reading the full Weekly Wire, click here.

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Egypt held the long awaited referendum for its highly contentious draft constitution on December 15.  The first round of voting took place in ten of Egypt’s 27 districts, including Cairo and Alexandria, while a second round will take place on December 22 in the country’s predominantly rural districts. Preliminary results suggest that voter turnout reached only 32 percent. According to the Freedom and Justice Party, “4,588,147 or 56.5 percent of the turnout voted yes for the draft constitution while 3,524,178 or 43.5 percent voted against it.”

Meanwhile, the National Salvation Front called for a repeat of the vote, alleging the balloting had been “marred by irregularities and violations.” The group vowed to investigate more than 4,000 complaints about the referendum.  A statement issued by the Cairo Center for Human Rights and others claimed, “The violations included the absence of full judicial administration, banning the civil society monitors from attending the count process, allowing members of the Freedom and Justice Party to enter polling stations, religious campaigning and tagging whoever refuses as blasphemous, deliberately blocking the voting process in some stations, shutting other stations before the scheduled time, and mass voting on behalf of women in some stations.” The Muslim Brotherhood’s top lawyer, Mohamed El-Damati, responded to the criticism saying, “The political elite continue to swallow the bait of Mubarak’s remnants and believe their war is with us. The real war is between all of Egypt and those remnants.” National Salvation Front leader Mohamed ElBaradei tweeted a dismal outlook following the referendum saying, “Country split, flagrant irregularities, low turnout, disillusion w/Islamists on the rise. Illiteracy remains a hurdle.”

Photo Credit: Reuters/Ako Rasheed

Leaders in Baghdad and the Kurdish Regional Government continued to trade jabs last week over the presence of Kurdish Peshmerga and the Iraqi Tigris Operations Force in disputed territories. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said “the visit of the President of Kurdistan Region Massoud Barzani…. to inspect the battlefronts in Kirkuk province is a ‘declaration of war’ on all Iraqis.” Denise Natali, of the National Defense University, noted that the decision to allow local militias to maintain security in the disputed territories “may only exacerbate the situation while failing to address the key issues.” These groups “will likely become proxies for Baghdad and Erbil and their regional supporters, allowing the underlying tensions to continue,” she added.

Meanwhile, Turkey and the KRG are concluding negotiations to open northern Iraq’s oil and gas sector to massive Turkish investment. The move is highly opposed by the U.S. and Iraqi governments over worries that the deal could hasten the breakup of the country. “We don’t support oil exports from any part of Iraq without the appropriate approval of the Iraqi government,” said State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland. However, a Turkish official responded saying, “We support the territorial integrity of Iraq and [its] constitution…. That is how we approach all of these issues, including any possible deals with the North.”

The U.S. National Intelligence Council published its “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds” report predicting that, “Chronic instability will be a feature of the region because of the growing weakness of the state and the rise of sectarianism, Islam, and tribalism.”  The report went further saying, “In the event of a more fragmented Iraq or Syria, a Kurdistan would not be inconceivable.”

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Following international recognition of the Syrian National Coalition as “the ‘legitimate representative’ body of the Syrian people,” Morocco’s King Mohammed VI encouraged the U.N. Security Council to reach an expedient consensus regarding political transition in Syria. Russia and China were both urged by William Burns, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, to vote with the rest of the Security Council in support of the transition. The U.S. and Morocco also signed new trade agreements under the U.S.-Morocco Free Trade Agreement, which U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk said “will be key in advancing our countries’ common agenda for jobs and economic growth.”

Former leader of Morocco’s Arab Spring protests, Idris Boutarada, was arrested earlier this week for possession of drugs, though others assert it was because he allegedly dressed in a way that was construed as impersonating the king. Thousands gathered for the funeral of Sheikh Abdessalam Yassine, lifelong leader of Morocco’s opposition group “Al Adl wal Ihsan,” on December 14. Yassine’s funeral was held in the capital’s main Mosque, and his body was interred in one of the nation’s official cemeteries, a move many saw as a government attempt to co-opt his legacy and prevent a shrine that would further inspire uprisings.

Photo Credit: Gulf Times

On December 13, Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa lifted (Ar.) a ban on demonstrations, saying he considers demonstrations and freedom of expression to be a “constitutional right for all citizens.” In response, thousands of opposition supporters participated in peaceful demonstrations near Manama December 14, chanting slogans against the regime and urging reforms. A day before Bahrain’s National Day celebrations, the protest was called for by oppositions groups, who said they “will not stop without a true democratic process.”

Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa‘s spokesman said any future dialogue must include all sections of Bahraini society, and that “differing political views represented in disparate political groups in Bahrain must be reconciled, and they will only be reconciled by sitting together.” State Minister for Information Samira Rajab agreed that “dialogue is the only solution.” While Khalil al-Marzouq, former al-Wefaq MP, said “we are ready for dialogue without any conditions,” Mohammed al-Maskati, head of the Bahrain Youth Society for Human Rights, said “we know dialogue would help solve the problems in Bahrain, but we don’t see any positive messages from the authorities.”

Meanwhile, al-Wefaq party leader Sheikh Ali Salman urged western countries to stand up for human rights in Bahrain, saying “I believe that we need more from Britain and the U.S. to achieve, on the ground, the change to democracy without any delay,” Salman said. Opposition leader Ebrahim Karimi lamented that “unfortunately the U.K and U.S. only think about a barrel of oil, not human rights.” The U.S. State Department has expressed concerns over the increasing violence in Bahrain, the limits put on the right to freedom of expression and assembly, and the “excessive” use of force by police and security services.