HARRY DENT: The US Has Gone Over The ‘Demographic Cliff’ And Markets Will Crash This Summer
Harry Dent is not one to shy away from predictions. Just take a quick
look at some of the man’s bibliography: he wrote The Great Boom Ahead in 1993 and followed it up with The Great Jobs Ahead in 1995. In 2009, he authored The Great Depression Ahead, and in 2011, The Great Crash Ahead.
Now, Dent, the economic forecaster perhaps best known for the use of demographics in his analysis, is predicting a big market crash this summer.
Dent told CNBC this afternoon:
We think markets are going to go up for a while. I think Maria [Bartiromo] is right – the market wants to go up.
We’ll see one more correction into this second fiscal cliff. I think we’ll see another rally into March, April, May, or something. By the summer, we get another crash.
I think it’s going to be a choppy rally – up, down, up, down, with an upward bias. It’s the second half that we think a crash starts – that, just like the last crash, lasts about a year and a half or so, goes into late 2014, early 2015.
We get a slight new high in the Dow this year, and then we get a slight new low in the next crash. That’s been the pattern. Higher highs in each bubble, slightly lower lows in each crash.
Again, this should not be something that people go, “Oh my gosh, how could this happen?” It’s been happening since 1995. Bubble, crash, bubble, crash, bubble, crash.
Here is what Dent told CNBC regarding why he expects this crash in the second half of 2013:
How many crashes have we seen in the last ten years or so? 2000, 2002 – bubble, crash. 2007 – bubble, crash. We’re getting a bubble and crash every four or five years.
This is what we have when you go over a demographic cliff. Remember Japan – Japan went over the demographic cliff. Peak in baby boom spending, peak real estate boom.
They had a bust. Guess what? 22 years later, real estate is still down over 60 percent, still drifting down. Stocks are down nearly 80 percent, not that far off their lows. They keep bubbling up and then going down to new lows.
This is the new normal, given that baby boomers are aging and the next generation is not only not in the workforce yet, largely, but they’re not as large when they do [enter]. So, we’re never going to see real estate prices at these levels again, and we’re not going to see stocks at the level we saw in 2007 for a long time.
So, to me, this is not unusual at all.
Dent told CNBC regarding the United States, “We call this the economy in a coma.”
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/harry-dent-predicts-market-crash-in-q3-2013-1#ixzz2HmIvpAL0
Kill Bill says:
You know they should create a private central bank to stop the cycles of booms and busts whose purpose is to maintain employment.
O. Wait.
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12th January 2013 at 11:37 am
Ron says:
I think the printing and debt and munipulation of the market well prevent that.For now.
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12th January 2013 at 2:26 pm
anotherjuanstalkerchen says:
according to Kondratiev theory, 2013 2015 should be the bottom of this cycle. on an unrelated note: being a boomer who no longer believes in the stock market, i consider stock picking to be the equivalent of harvesting in a garbage dump, i know many people in india make a living that way. sorry to be so negative on stocks but the companies are in negative territory.
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12th January 2013 at 6:37 pm
AWD says:
Young Need More Regulation, Medical Report Suggests
Dear Comrades,
The Office of the People’s Commissar for Health Control issued a directive today to all subordinate organs of the Department of Mandatory Health and Human Services to prepare legislation for the People’s Congress aimed at limiting unhealthy activities amongst the workers and peasants of the USSA.
A recent study shows that many Young Socialists, who are tomorrow’s workers and peasants after their indoctrination activities in university and acquisition of their fair share of the People’s Debt (i.e. college loans), are being medically afflicted at an alarmingly high rate by their personal choices
While the Party maintains that Young Socialists should work hard to contravene Bourgeois morality and engage in behavior considered taboo by false religions, it is important that they be kept as healthy as possible to ensure that future Five-year Plans can be met and that the People’s Health System is not overburdened. A depleted workforce means that pension obligations will become more difficult to manage, which is an unacceptable outcome.
Therefore, the Party is working towards a new Healthy Behavior Plan, not unlike the universal disarmament order under the Weapons Violence Plan under formation through the administrative offices of the Party Central Committee directed by Comrade President Barack Barackovich Obama.
This Healthy Behavior Plan is expected to receive the endorsement of Vice-Chairwoman Michelle Fraserovna Obama, who has devoted her Vice-Chairwomanship to making the USSA a healthier State through dietary controls.
Now, the Party will gradually expand this vision beyond merely agitating for healthy eating, but further restrictions on behaviors that the Party defines as unhealthy and counter-productive to the workers’ and peasants’ collective health. In the future, people can expect:
A new radio-transmitter belt with sensors designed to monitor your eating habits and send this information to State Health authorities.
A permitting process for sexual activity, which will include mandatory disease testing and quarantining of infected persons until their mandatory treatment is competed.
A new ‘helmet-cam’ for all young persons under the age of 21 that will not only protect their heads from traumatic injury due to risky behavior, but will also stream live video to the Department of Social Justice so that law enforcement can interrupt any potentially dangerous activity, thus saving the State billions of People’s Dollars in medical expenses.
The Party wants Young Socialists to enjoy themselves the way the ‘Baby Boom’ generation did, but without chronic health problems and mortality rates that effect State productivity.
A balance must be struck between a care-free youth and disciplined social responsibility. The Party will devote itself to maintaining this balance through monitoring and regulating of popular decision making.
Let us enjoy the blessings of Socialism through Social Controls!
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12th January 2013 at 9:18 pm
Bruce says:
Every year they say this is it. The market will crash in the summer or fall. Everything will go to shit and we will all be leading lives of desperation in the grips of the greatest Depression.
Things do get worse and the future is grim but they never o consider the “Pretend Factor” the banks and government pretend they can handle things, they pretend things are looking up, they pretend that real growth is right around the corner. They can pretend for a long time and can pretend more effectively than anyone has ever thought possible.
They pretend so so much they believe it. And when a crisis arrives they pretend it away even harder than before and do doe’s enough of the public. The only reason things aren’t as fucked up as they really are is because everyone is pretending things are not as fucked up as they really are. All this pretending when in reality things are so fucked that even the few with their eyes open will probably be aghast at the magnitude of the fuckedupness.
This pretending is powerful with pretend money and pretend paper and pretend deals and all but it will come to and one day. The PTB and the public have pretended so much for so long that when the pretenders finally face reality they will be looking into the face a death head that they can’t make go away..
The Institutional FSA that get 10%-15% less food on their SNAP allocation last year can’t even figured out they are getting less. They don’t seem to understand that they and the working poor will be the first, the most and hardest to be rat fucked by the PTB. Folks think things are better because they just got an Obama Phone and that they will get even more free stuff soon. But eventual stealth austerity will eat them alive.
When the SHTF the FSA demographic will eat the disability welfare recipients, the elderly and the scooter riders who can move fast enough. And then they will eat each other and everyone else they can. They will be the coming Zombie Apocalypse but at least they will die one time only and head shots will not be absolutely necessary. Add to the FSA most everyone else one who works and lives pay check to pay check. Even some of those who make more than the magic $250K a year aren’t too many pay days away from ruin and will be among the living dead.
“Coming Depression and Crash my ass.” How about the “Coming Chaos and the Bursting Open of the Gates of Hell”.
Here’s my prediction. The logistics, the resources and the mathematics combined with the demographics are going to kill most of us sooner than old age does. We are Doomed.
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12th January 2013 at 11:18 pm
Eddie says:
Doomed.
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12th January 2013 at 11:23 pm
Muck About says:
Echo! Echo!
MA
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12th January 2013 at 5:40 pm