On Wednesday, January 16, 2013, The Washington Institute hosted a Policy Forum luncheon with an address by Tara D. Sonenshine, the U.S. Undersecretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs, entitled “Public Diplomacy in a Changing Middle East.” TWI Director Robert Satloff introduced the Undersecretary.

For full event notes continue reading or click here for the pdf. Read more…

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A new brief published by the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center details the grim prospects for women’s rights under the country’s constitution, adopted by public referendum in December.  The author, Moushira Khattab, a former Egyptian ambassador and Minister of Family and Population, outlines the threat posed to the country’s women by the charter in Women’s Rights Under Egypt’s Constitutional Disarray.

Among the most alarming aspects concerning the rights of women addressed by the report is the absence of any clause specifically prohibiting gender-based discrimination in the new constitution   ”The post-revolution constitution does not prohibit discrimination on the grounds of gender, sex, religion, origin, or any other grounds…It does not establish any rights for women, let alone guarantee their implementation.”  Except for the chapter regarding human rights, the only language pertaining to women in the charter is recognition of their domestic role, “founded on religion, morality, and patriotism.”

While the report recognizes the expansion of the constitution’s definition of human rights since its previous 1971 iteration, it raises criticism of the charter’s ability to ensure respect for basic human rights.  ”Generally speaking, the constitution does not provide a foundation that is conducive to the realization of human rights.”  Citing the document’s reliance on subjective phrases such as “principles” and “provisions of sharia” to provide guidance on legislation, it risks reversing women’s rights in Egypt, such as the right to unilateral divorce, child marriage, and protection from female genital mutilation.  Furthermore, the report warns that such a broad interpretation could both embolden the discretion of judges to interpret the law and radicalize sources of moderate Islamic guidance in the country, granting ” non-elected, non-judicial individuals authority over the elected legislature and other democratically-elected bodies.”  It adds, “This naturally poses a threat to women’s rights given political Islam’s notoriety for being against these rights.”

This brief is a part of the 15th Edition of the  Middle East Program’s Viewpoints series.

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Representative Ted Deutch (D-FL) won the ranking member spot on the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa in an unexpected maneuver on Tuesday. Representative Brad Sherman (D-CA), the third ranking Democrat on the committee, was widely known to be planning to put his name forward for the position. However, when it became apparent that Deutch had whipped enough votes to win the spot, Sherman chose not to officially offer his name for the position. He instead bid for his previous post as ranking member on the Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation and Trade, which will be chaired by Representative Ted Poe (R-TX).

In a statement following his election on Tuesday, Deutch said, “We face enormously consequential foreign policy challenges in the Middle East, from how we eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat and combat terrorism to how we strengthen Israel’s security and support Israel’s ongoing quest for peace, to how we advance democracy, gender equality and human rights in the region.” He added, “I am honored to have this opportunity to help shape our responses to these challenges, and I look forward to working with my friend and Subcommittee Chair Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.”

On Wednesday (1/16), the Middle East Policy Council (MEPC) hosted its 71^st Capitol Hill Conference entitled “U.S. Grand Strategy in the Middle East: Is There One?”  Moderated by Thomas R. Mattair, Executive Director of MEPC, the event featured Chas W. Freeman Jr., Chairman of Projects International, former U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, and former President of MEPC; William B. Quandt, Professor at the University of Virginia and formerly of the National Security Council; John Duke Anthony, founding President and Chief Executive Officer of the National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations; and Marwan Muasher, Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment, former Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister of Jordan, and former Ambassador of Jordan to the U.S.

For full event notes continue reading or click here for the PDF. Read more…

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An Omani appellate court on Wednesday upheld the convictions of eight bloggers charged with cyber crimes and insulting the country’s leader, Sultan Qaboos Bin Saeed, last spring.  The convictions were originally handed down in a court of first instance in December in the trials of over 40 individuals charged with defaming the sultan, violating cyber laws and wrongfully gathering in support of striking oil workers on May 31.  The bloggers now face jail terms between six and 18 months and a fine of $2,600.  One judgement was suspended, while another’s has been served.  In the last two weeks the appeals court has upheld the sentences for 29 of the cases, sending 28 individuals to jail for terms of six months to one year.

Elsewhere in the region, a Saudi Arabian court sentenced an Egyptian rights lawyer to five years in prison and 300 lashes for drug-trafficking charges, which carries a death sentence.   Ahmed Al-Gizawi was charged with bringing thousands of tablets of Xanax into the Kingdom – where the drug is banned-  last April while on pilgrimage.  Rights activists in the region, however, have called Al-Gizawi’s arrest politically motivated for his criticism of the kingdom’s treatment of Egyptians living in the country.  On Al-Gizawi’s arrest in April, the Arabic Network for Human Rights Information said, “ANHRI expressed its shock of Saudi courts to prosecute an Egyptian citizen and render a judgment against him without being notified of the charges and without even his defense attendance, all because of his criticism of the authorities violating rights of Egyptian citizens in its territory…”  Al-Gizawi was previously sentenced by a Saudi court to a year in prison and 20 lashes for his remarks, although he was unaware of the charges.

On Monday, January 14, 2013, the Brookings-LSE Project on Internal Displacement and the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings hosted a panel entitled “What’s Next for Syria: Humanitarian and Political Perspectives.” The panel featured Panos Moumtzis, Regional Coordinator for Syrian Refugees for the UN Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), and Frederic Hof, Senior Fellow at the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East at the Atlantic Council. Elizabeth Ferris, Senior Fellow and Co-Director of Brookings-LSE Project on Internal Displacement, moderated the discussion.

For full event notes, continue reading or click here for the PDF. Read more…

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According to a secret State Department cable from the Consul General in Istanbul, Scott Frederic Kilner, the Syrian army may have deployed chemical weapons against civilians in Homs on December 23.  The cable to Washington comes after an investigation conducted by the consulate that is “one of the most comprehensive efforts the U.S. government has made to investigate claims by internal Syrian sources.”  The anonymous administration official who leaked the cable to Josh Rogin of Foreign Policy added, “We can’t definitely say 100 percent, but Syrian contacts made a compelling case that Agent 15 was used in Homs on Dec. 23.”  Agent 15 is a hallucinogen meant to induce confusion, although two doctors who spoke with Rogin and who treated patients from the alleged attack attribute five deaths and approximately 100 cases of “severe respiratory, nervous system, and gastrointestinal ailments” to the gas.

President Obama stated last August that the use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime against civilians was a “red line” that might prompt the U.S. to intervene.  ”That would change my calculus.  That would change my equation.”  But administration officials announced late Tuesday that it was skeptical about the use of chemical weapons.  ”The reporting we have seen from media sources regarding alleged chemical weapons incidents in Syria has not been consistent with what we believe to be true about the Syrian chemical weapons program,” National Security Council spokesman Tommy Vietor said. He added: ”If the Assad regime makes the tragic mistake of using chemical weapons, or fails to meet its obligation to secure them, the regime will be held accountable.”

Meanwhile, Jordan is taking precautions along its border with Syria.  Prime Minister Abdullah Ensour stated that Jordan was preparing measures that “could lessen the casualties but they would not safeguard the whole society.”  And at the U.N., Israeli Ambassador Ron Posor called on the body to take immediate action.  ”The Security Council must act today, not tomorrow…It is our responsibility to prevent leakage of chemical weapons to terrorist groups. Too many decisions were made in this room but not implemented…There are times when lack of action is not an option.”

Freedom House released on Wednesday a report titled “Freedom in the World 2013: Middle East Gains Provoke Intensified Repression.”   Freedom House found “impressive gains” in the past year despite being a region “notable for sectarian polarization, civil strife, and repressive autocracies.” The countries whose level of political rights and civil liberties increased were: Tunisia, Libya and Egypt. The latter two moved from “Not Free” to “Partly Free,” while Tunisia remained at “Partly Free” but showed dramatic improvements from the previous year. Countries that had declines in political rights and civil liberties were Syria, Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates. Freedom House noted that Syria has seen the worst repercussions from the Arab Spring so far.

The number of countries whose political rights and civil liberties score declined far outweigh those who improved. Freedom House explained this result saying the gains for some Middle East countries “triggered a reaction, sometimes violent, by authoritarian leaders elsewhere in the Middle East, with resulting setbacks for freedom.”

The report also notes the ambiguous results in some countries. There were major gains for Libya and Tunisia, but while direct military rule came to an end in Egypt, the elected parliament was dissolved, President Morsi pushed through a controversial constitution, and the presidential election was “flawed.”

On Monday (1/14), the Project on Middle East Democracy, the Tunisian American Young Professionals, and the John Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) hosted a panel discussion entitled “Two Years Later:  Assessing Tunisia’s Progress since the Jasmine Revolution.” The panel, moderated by founder and President of the Tunisian Young American Professionals Mohamed Malouche, featured Leila Chennoufi, Senior Environmental Specialist for the InterAmerican Development Bank; Stephen McInerney, Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy; Eamon Gearon, analyst and lecturer in the SAIS African Studies Program; and Samia Msadek, Financial Management Regional Director of East Asia and the Pacific at the World Bank. Daniele Moro, visiting scholar at the Center for Transatlantic Relations at SAIS, gave opening remarks.

For full event notes, continue reading or click here for the PDF. Read more…

The Woodrow Wilson Center hosted an event on Monday (1/14) showcasing a book by Caryle Murphy entitled “A Kingdom’s Future: Saudi Arabia Through the Eyes of its Twentysomethings.” The event featured a presentation by the author and a discussion with 22-year-old Saudi student Faris Ahmed al-Sulayman, with Haleh Estandiari moderating.

For full event notes, continue reading or click here for the PDF. Read more…

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A group of US Senators including  John McCain (R-AZ), Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Kelly Ayotte (R-NH), Kirsten Gillibrand, (D-NY), Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), and Christopher Coons, (D-DE) arrived in Egypt on Tuesday to meet with senior government officials, including President Morsi, and members of the opposition movements.  During the three-day visit the senators are expected to discuss Egypt’s democratic transition and regional issues like the situation in Syria and Palestine. The Media spokesperson of the National Salvation Front  confirmed that the opposition group had assembled a committee that plans to meet with the McCain-led delegation, while Aboul Moneim Fotouh’s Strong Egypt Party released a statement saying they would not meet with the delegation because of Senator McCain’s “absolute” support for Israel and support of the war in Iraq, among other things.

Also today in Egypt,  the country’s top court postponed a ruling on a case that challenged the legitimacy of the upper house of parliament. A ruling either way threatened to increase Egypt’s political uncertainty but the case was referred back to an advisory legal panel for review.  If the upper house had been found invalid, Morsi would have had to take over legislative powers until elections, which are expected in April.  The upper house can continue working for now but Reuters reports that it’s unknown when the court will release their decision and that “ it is not clear which way the court will rule when it does finally issue a decision.”

The court also postponed on Tuesday a case challenging the make-up of the assembly that drew up the newly approved constitution. The case will be heard by the court in a session on February 3.

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Monday marked two years since protests began in Tunisia and sparked uprisings across the Middle East. Thousands of secular Tunisians protested the Islamist government on the revolution’s anniversary, expressing frustration with unemployment, rising prices, and religious violence.

Although analyses of the current environment in Tunisia noted disenchantment with the progress of the transition, many authors cited reasons for optimism regarding Tunisia’s ultimate success. Marc Lynch points to the history of democratic transition, noting that the outlook was grim for many democracies after two years but a bleak forecast at this stage has not always been a predictor of failure. Raymond Torres of the International Labor Organization claims that trust in political leaders and belief that conditions in the country will improve are growing among Tunisians, while a Bloomberg editorial points to negotiations between political factions drafting the new constitution and promising new investment legislation as indicators of potential success.

These analyses also offered recommendations for further progress toward democracy in Tunisia. Torres calls for Tunisian access to other markets or integration of North African economies. Bloomberg editors emphasize the necessity of visible improvements in the lives of Tunisian citizens to prevent new uprisings, saying, “Tunisians are impatient to see change.” They suggest international aid and public-private partnerships to fund and implement new infrastructure projects and increased outside investment in Tunisia’s economy. A UN group also addressed the need for fully protected civil liberties under the new government, calling on officials to adopt stronger protections against gender inequality and discrimination in the draft constitution.

Tunisian president Moncef Marzouki also offered thoughts on Tunisia’s future. Marzouki argues that all Arab Spring countries must achieve political compromise between Islamists and secularists and must eliminate corruption while establishing economies based on solidarity in order to become advanced democracies. He also writes that Tunisia is the Arab country best equipped for succeeding in democratization and that, “the success of the Tunisian experiment will have a very positive impact on the entire Arab world.”

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In response to a Freedom of Information Act request filed by ProPublica, the U.S. Department of Defense released documents confirming that the U.S. sold arms to Bahrain during the year ending in February 2012. The list of items “includes ammunition, combat vehicle parts, communications equipment, Blackhawk helicopters, and an unidentified missile system.” It is not clear which items have been delivered, and which items just refer to maintenance or spare parts for previous purchases. Additionally, Bahraini activists and the Bahrain Youth Society for Human Rights uncovered that Dae Kwang, a South Korean company, has been Bahrain’s leading supplier of tear gas canisters and stun grenades since the February 2011 protests and crackdown.

On Tuesday, Bahrain’s appeals court upheld a 15-month prison sentence for Jawad Fayruz, a former Shi’ite opposition member of parliament.  Fayruz, a leader in the Al Wefaq party, was convicted of participating in unauthorized protests and of calling for protests without informing the authorities. Meanwhile, Zainab Al-Khawaja, a human rights activist, was expected to be sentenced on Tuesday for insulting a police officer. She currently has a total of 13 cases against her.

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On Friday, Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah issued a decree appointing women to 30 of the 150 seats on the country’s Shura Council. The move fulfilled a promise made by the King in 2011, and was met with a mixture of optimism and skepticism. Manal al-Sharif, a Saudi Arabian women’s rights activist, tweeted, “The amendments ignored Saudis’ demands of electing the members and increasing the council powers! It still cannot pass or enforce laws.” Iyad Madani, a former minister, said that the “confirmation of [women's] participation in the political process” should be celebrated.

On Monday, King Abdullah named Prince Saud bin Nayef as governor of Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province. The province is home to the country’s oil industry and Shia minority, which has been holding regular protests for more rights and the release of detainees over the past two years. In the ultra-conservative Qassim province, more than 100 clerics signed a petition demanding fair trials for detainees held for security reasons. It states, “The issue…has resulted in growing frustration among the people…This has become evident through the protests and sit-ins that are increasing in number and widening in scope and intensifying in tone…It would be wise to resolve this issue quickly.”

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia rejected the widespread criticism it received for executing a Sri Lankan maid last week. A government spokesman said that Saudi Arabia “respects…all rules and laws and protects the rights of its people and residents, and completely rejects any intervention in its affairs and judicial verdicts.”

In the Washington Post, Janine Zacharia writes that Washington has remained silent as Saudi Arabia has tried leading human rights activists Mohammad Fahad al-Qahtani and Abdullah al-Hamid. She declares that now is the time for Western governments to “do something to try to reverse this trend of Saudi Arabia imprisoning writers and activists.”

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Egypt’s Al Nour Party announced last week that it had chosen a new leader to guide the party ahead of parliamentary elections later this year.  Coming amid months of disagreement among the party’s top members over the influence of Salafi clerics within the movement’s political branch, the party’s former leader, Imad Abdul Ghafour, defected with over a fifth of the party’s MPs to form a new party, Al Watan, which will run a separate list from Al Nour in the upcoming elections.

The prospects for a split Salafi movement in Egypt’s next parliament indicate a possible slowing of momentum for the country’s ultraconservative political forces, who believe the state should be guided by a strict interpretation of Islam.  “If you look at the Islamists on the one hand and the secular and liberal parties on the other, the liberal coalition seems to be consolidating while the Islamists are fragmenting,” stressed Emad Shahin, a scholar at the American University in Cairo and expert on Islamic movements in North Africa.  Al Watan leaders were quick to assert that its differences with Al Nour were not ideological, but over the application of ideology in the pursuit of party goals.  ”We’re trying to create a party that will be more inclusive of different ideologies, not just Salafi movements but all Islamic movements,” said Watan spokesman, Mohamed Nour.

If Watan leaders voiced reason for moderation and a willingness to form parliamentary alliances, Al Nour announced after Younis Makhioun‘s ascension to party leadership that, “It would be too hard to share one [electoral] list. It is in both sides’ best interests to take part in the parliamentary elections on its own.”  Makioun addressed Egyptian Copts after his election and added, ”You are safe with us; we shall offer you nothing but welfare.”

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The Iraqi government has released over 300 prisoners arrested for violations of an anti-terror law. Protests erupted three weeks ago when Sunni Finance Minister Rafa al-Essawi‘s bodyguards were arrested under this law. Demonstrators have claimed that the law is being used by the government to oppress the Sunni minority, and the release of prisoners arrested under this law has been one of their primary demands. Discussing the release, Deputy Prime Minister Hussein al-Shahristani, a senior Shi’ite figure leading a committee recently established to examine the protesters’ demands, said, “In name of the Iraqi State, I apologize to those who were arrested and jailed and were later proven to be innocent.”

Prior to the prisoner release, Osama al-Nujaifi, parliament speaker and the most senior elected Sunni figure, reiterated the demands of the protesters this weekend. He said Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki should enact an amnesty law to free detainees jailed on terrorism charges and modify these laws. He also expressed concern that failure to change the current political environment in Iraq could result in leaders losing control over the protests.

Meanwhile, in the midst of the growing sectarian tensions, there was an apparent assassination attempt on Essawi. A roadside bomb exploded near his convoy on Sunday. Essawi was not injured in the attack.

POMED’s Weekly Wire for the week of January 14 is now available. In this week’s edition, we highlight these and other top stories:

Kuwait Sentences Two for Social Media Insults of Emir

• NGOs Urge Diplomatic Pressure on Turkey

• U.S. “Regrets” Bahraini Activists’ Sentences

• Opposition Eyes Syria U.N., Arab League Seats

• Ros-Lehtinen to Head MENA Subcommittee

To continue reading the full Weekly Wire, click here.

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An Egyptian court ordered a retrial for former president Hosni Mubarak and former interior minister Habib al-Adly,  who are serving life sentences for their roles in the killings of protesters in the 2011 revolution. Mubarak will also be retried on corruption charges of which he was acquitted in June. Mohamed Abdel Razek, one of Mubarak’s lawyers, said, ”No new evidence will be added to the case.” Reacting to the order, a senior adviser to Mubarak’s successor, President Mohamed Morsi, said that the administration looks forward to a second trial. No date has been set for the trial.

Mubarak’s first trial sparked indignation among some Egyptians and human rights groups because of its failure to address other abuses committed during his presidency. His retrial may revive these frustrations and could agitate protests among his opponents in the lead-up to the upcoming parliamentary elections. Mubarak’s declining health may also play a role in his retrial.

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Envoys from the United States, Russia, and the United Nations met on Friday to discuss a political solution to the conflict in Syria. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State William Burns, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, and U.N. envoy Lakhdar Brahimi agreed that “there was no military solution to this conflict.” In spite of shared views on the necessity of a political resolution, the envoys did not establish a plan for implementing the transitional process described in last June’s agreement in Geneva. “If you are asking whether there is a solution around the corner, I’m not sure that is the case,” Brahimi told a reporter.

The talks appeared to stall due to disagreements on President Bashar al-Assad‘s role in the Syrian transition. Russia insisted that Assad’s removal from power must not be a precondition for peace in the country. The Foreign Ministry stated, “We firmly uphold the thesis that questions about Syria’s future must be decided by the Syrians themselves, without interference from outside or the imposition of prepared recipes for development.” State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland asserted, “The Geneva document makes clear that it has to be a government that is agreed by mutual consent. Our view that that would preclude Assad’s participation hasn’t changed either.”

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Samuel Tadros published a piece for the Hudson Institute that recounts Egypt’s constitutional struggle and provides a glimpse of intra-Islamist dynamics. Ultimately, he finds that “while the fall of the Mubarak regime and its security apparatus has provided the Brotherhood with unprecedented opportunities to acquire power and begin implementing their vision, it has also unleashed an extraordinary challenge in the form of Salafism.”

Tadros finds that the Muslim Brotherhood sought to “manipulate both the process and the new document to further strengthen their power in Egyptian politics.” To do this the Brotherhood focused on the political system, co-opting the military, and keeping the Salafis on board, while keeping strengthening the role of Sharia and the Islamic nature of the new constitution a top priority. He notes that the Brotherhood’s goal has been to control the state and use its power and the Gama’a, or “Society,” to build an Islamic one.

The author describes the Salafis, conversely, as being hesitant to engage in politics, but ultimately doing so out of necessity to protect Sharia’s past constitutional role. The Salafis desired to “increase good” by enhancing Sharia’s status and increasing “the Islamic identity of the constitution” and to “decrease evil” by removing or blocking constitutional articles deemed “un-Islamic,” and proscribing “unacceptable” freedoms.

Tadros tracks how the Brotherhood and Salafis first colluded to form a pro-Islamist constitutional assembly, then battled over how Islamic to make the constitution. As tensions rose, the Salafists mobilized popular support, criticizing the Brotherhood’s lack of commitment to Sharia and Islam. Ultimately, a compromise was struck, President Morsi made his decree, and the new constitution, “an almost complete Salafi victory,” was ratified. Tadros concludes, “The Salafi monster is thus unlike anything that the Brotherhood has ever dealt with…and there may come a day in the future when the Salafist movement desires to eat the whole meal.”