Egyptian voters, May 24, Cairo. Amr Nabil/ Associated Press/Corbis
September 19, 2012
Mohammed
Morsi is not the closest male descendant of the last Pharaoh, nor an heir of
the Mohammed Ali dynasty, nor is he from the ‘superior breed’ of military men
who overthrew the last monarch. His election as president in June amounted to a
dramatic shakeup of political tradition: Mohammed Morsi is Egypt’s first
democratically chosen leader since the beginning of history.
Yet the
unusual ceremonial protocol around his assumption of office reflects the
bruising new political lineup that has taken shape since the sudden collapse of
Hosni Mubarak’s thirty-year rule. At the insistence of the generals of the
Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), Morsi took the office not before
the elected parliament—which had been dissolved by a court ruling—but at the
Supreme Constitutional Court. Morsi, in turn, orchestrated a symbolic
swearing-in before the revolutionary throngs in Tahrir Square.
Indicating
the real power in the new lineup, one of Morsi’s first acts as president was to
pay a call on SCAF chairman Field Marshal Mohammed Hussein Tantawi, rather than
the other way around. The two men represent the main political powers in the ‘new’
Egypt: the eighty-four-year-old Muslim Brotherhood, by far the best organized
political group in the country, and the military establishment, deeply
entrenched in Egyptian society since the 1952 Free Officers coup against King
Farouk.
Thus
far, SCAF and the Brotherhood broadly cooperate. Unlike the military crackdown
after Islamists sought power through the ballot box in Algeria twenty years
ago, SCAF has accepted the Brotherhood’s political rise. For its part, the
Brotherhood is cautious about calling for an Islamic revolution or uprooting Mubarak’s
old guard. But the two forces have been on a collision course since January,
when the Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party and the Salafi Al-Nour Party
captured 70 percent of the seats in the People’s Assembly.
SCAF
and a SCAF-appointed government hindered the independence and legislative
efforts of the People’s Assembly, whose ineffectiveness in turn seriously
dented the Brotherhood’s popularity. Disillusion among supporters and increased
worries among non-supporters about Islamist hegemony over all state
institutions dealt a major electoral blow to the Brotherhood in the first round
of the presidential balloting in May: compared to the 10.1 million Egyptians
who voted for the Brotherhood’s list in the parliamentary election, only 5.7
million cast ballots for Morsi just four months later.
But the
coup de grâce, which exposed what SCAF may have been planning all along, came
when the judiciary stepped in to further compound the chaotic transition and
effectively become SCAF’s proxy in the struggle against the Brotherhood. Days
before the presidential election run-off between Morsi and Ahmed Shafik, a
former Air Force commander, the Supreme Constitutional Court ordered the
dissolution of the Islamist-controlled parliament on a legal technicality: security
forces immediately surrounded the assembly to bar MPs from entering.
A soft
coup seemed to be underway. Under the pretext of filling the legislative
vacuum, SCAF issued an addendum to the interim constitution giving itself
far-reaching executive and legislative powers including power over the state
budget and the right to form an entirely new constituent assembly to draft the
new constitution. SCAF’s decree also gave the military veto power over the
future constitution.
In this
power struggle, Morsi is not only confronting top generals who have no
intention of losing their economic empire and veto power over national security
and sensitive foreign policy. He also faces the considerable weight of the feloul, the remnants of the
former regime. These include business tycoons, former National Democratic Party
leaders, senior media powerhouses, and government officials who reach far and
deep into state bureaucracy.
In
addition, a review of Egypt’s emerging political lineup remains incomplete
without noting that in the June run-off more than twelve million Egyptians
registered their preference for the man who served as Mubarak’s last prime
minister (compared to just over thirteen million for Morsi). Shafik’s
supporters cannot be pigeonholed as pro-Mubarak counter-revolutionaries, and
the most powerful among them, including those who backed Shafik with money and
political influence, are clearly not going gently into the night.
Another
element in the mix is the community of Egyptian liberals who welcomed the revolution
but have recoiled at the prospect that democracy would privilege the illiberal
Islamist movement. After performing abysmally at the polls, and fragmenting as
a political force, some liberals filed court challenges to Morsi’s decree
reinstating the Islamist-dominated People’s Assembly. (Morsi later withdrew his
decree.) The contradictions in their earnest advocacy of a civil state are
evident in their preference for a military dictatorship over an Islamist
democracy.
Much
legal and constitutional wrangling is still to come. One of the most difficult
challenges facing the constituent assembly is unequivocally guaranteeing the
separation of powers in Egypt’s new constitution. Yet the work of drafting and
approving a new constitution will take place in the context of SCAF’s
continuing heavy hand in Egyptian politics and government.
After his inauguration,
Morsi appeared side by side with Tantawi at an Air Force display marking the
graduation of a new class of pilots. No doubt a customary ceremonial act for
any nation’s democratically elected president. But it highlights the absurdity
of how—despite a popular revolution followed by a free election for parliament
and another to replace a deposed dictator as the nation’s chief executive—there
are effectively two presidents in the ‘new’ Egypt.
Rania Al
Malky is the editor of Egypt Monocle, a multi-platform media outlet launched in
2012. She was the editor of the Daily News Egypt.