The nutty Simpsons are the most tempting new property to be dangled before the hundreds of companies that bet their well-being on the public craving for beanbags and shoe horns with some character's image emblazoned on them. It's a curious world of high risk and potentially high reward in which Rambo competes against the Little Mermaid and Freddy Kreuger.
In 1980, sales of licensed products worldwide amounted to $10 billion, according to the Licensing Letter, a newsletter. Last year, sales hit a record $64.6 billion. While the biggest licensing category is trademarks and brand names, cartoon characters like the Simpsons represent a healthy $12 billion chunk of the industry.
The riches to be collected from exploiting American entertainment phenomena - the likes of the Disney characters, the Flintstones, Dick Tracy and rock groups - play a not inconsequential role in the nation's balance of trade. For the ideas and products of American dream factories continue to rule world pop culture - an estimated 90 percent of licensed goods are based on licenses originating in the United States - and are likely to do so for years to come. In modern marketing, any hit show could instantly spawn a new brand name, something devilishly difficult and expensive to accomplish - and then the merchandisers move in to feed.
As it happens, the Fox series is aiding the recovery of new juvenile licenses, which passed through agitated times from 1986 to 1988, when many licenses fizzled and neophyte licensers were battered. Yet the recent prosperity of the ''Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles,'' ''New Kids on the Block'' and ''The Simpsons'' have markedly improved the appetite for new properties. Sales of Ninja Turtles goods, for instance, are estimated to have already surpassed $650 million, while ''Batman'' spinoffs have sold more than $500 million.
The Simpsons are also symptomatic of a return to licensing's traditional role. ''In the early 1980's, because of the enormous popularity of licensing, properties were created simply for licenses,'' said Arnold Bolka, publisher of the Licensing Letter. ''Some, like Strawberry Shortcake, were enormously popular. But hundreds were disasters. So marketers have gone back to the normal method of licensing established properties.''
How well the Simpsons ultimately fare - and establish themselves as a brand name with enormous potential - largely depends on the care accorded them. The dual pulls of the bounty to be reaped from merchandising and the dream of building an enduring series create a delicate balancing act. Thus Fox Broadcasting is groping to manage its unanticipated hit so it doesn't veer out of control.
Among licensing agents, there are two schools of thought on how to mine a property. One school goes, ''when you're hot, you're hot,'' meaning sell all you can now while everyone feels your glow. The other school goes, ''don't forget about tomorrow,'' and advocates apportioning licenses gradually to avoid saturating the market and making the property hackneyed.
''I think the Simpsons is a spectacular property,'' said Mark Freedman, president of Surge Licensing Inc., who has licensing rights to the Ninja Turtles and who years ago pitched Scooby Doo and Alvin and the Chipmunks. ''Does Fox have the knowledge to go out and manage this property and keep its integrity? It's something I wrestle with every day. It's why I turned down Turtles toothpicks and floor polish.''
Pinch by Pinch
How do you know what is enough?
''It's almost like cooking,'' Mr. Freedman said. ''You learn from experience. A chef knows a pinch of this, a pinch of that.''
In cashing in on the Simpsons, Fox says it is following a pinch-by-pinch approach. It has signed up more than 70 spinoff products - from which Fox would typically get a royalty of 5 percent to 8 percent of the factory price - but has essentially ceased assigning licenses for the now. Fox acknowledges that it fields - and rebuffs - upward of 100 calls a day from marketers.
If the Simpsons were simply a theatrical movie, Fox would have to move quickly. A movie's appeal is fleeting and everything gets sold at once. If the movie flops, the license withers in the blink of an eye. Weeks before Disney's ''Dick Tracy'' opens in theaters in June, Tracy merchandise is already on sale, with interest being fed by trailers running with other films.
But characters on TV and in comic strips can exhibit great vitality. Snoopy and his fellow Peanuts pals are in their 40th year. Betty Boop is looking good as she nears 60. Bugs Bunny turns 50 this year, and Warner Brothers is celebrating with its upcoming ''Box Office Bunny,'' the bunny's first new film short in 26 years, and a blizzard of fresh Looney Tunes licensed products. What Fox doesn't want, Mr. Freedman said, is something like ''Voltron,'' a syndicated TV cartoon about a robot that was on in the mid-1980's, massively licensed and quickly forgotten.
Still, to turn down licenses now, Fox may be forgoing possibilities that won't arise again. ''Only time will tell, but they may lose a big opportunity,'' said Mr. Bolka. ''Something else may come along to overshadow the Simpsons.'
At the moment, though, Fox is keeping a tight rein on many aspects of the Simpsons. The loopy show has drawn a veritable blizzard of publicity. But Barry Diller, Fox Inc.'s chairman, has recently discouraged the show's staff from cooperating in any more articles for a while. Fox said it has spurned invitations to the ''Today'' show and ''Prime Time Live,'' opportunities publicists normally pray to the heavens for.
Fox said it is uneasy about fueling too much hype before the series has taken a firmer hold. Also, next Sunday's show is scheduled to be the final fresh episode until September, when a 22-episode commitment begins, and there may not even be any reruns. The show's three executive producers - Matt Groening, James L. Brooks and Sam Simon - have been debating whether to offer reruns or simply vanish from the screen until fall. ''It's not a happy situation,'' Mr. Groening said.
Maintaining Momentum
Though Fox doesn't want to offend viewers with reruns, it also doesn't wish to create a void, especially with tides of merchandise pouring into stores. Mr. Groening's feeling is that a few reruns will probably be shown.
Who can tell how characteristically capricious viewers will react to the hiatus? When ''The Simpsons'' was pre-empted on April 1, Fox got a flurry of calls from cross fans. ''I talked to one mother who said she used the Simpsons as a reward for her kids being good,'' Mr. Groening said. ''The kids complained that they had been good for nothing.''
Some merchandisers are also uneasy that the show will not be on much, if at all, during the summer. ''Obviously we'd love to have the television show playing all summer, but we'll just have to wait and see,'' said Nancy Overfield-Delmar, special events manager for J.C. Penney. From a merchandising standpoint, the wacky Simpsons offer something not seen in decades, an animated cartoon shown in prime time with a broad following. Although the Simpsons have particularly zealous fans among the hard-to-reach 12-to-17 year-old group, devotees stretch from toddlers to 50-year-olds. Few licenses boast such a wide base. The Ninja Turtles, for instance, appeal primarily to young boys.
''The Simpsons are unique because they cut across all levels of intellect, age and sex,'' said John Bower, the licensing manager for S.S.I., a clothing company that makes Simpsons T-shirts and sweatshirts. ''They've caught fire like no fire we've ever had the pleasure to be involved with.'' He said the company was selling several hundred thousand T-shirts a week.
''In my business, you have to get inside kids' heads,'' said Gary Schuetz, the vice president of marketing for Amurol, a gum maker planning Bart bubble gum. ''Kids want to be seen with something that's cool. Bart is clearly cool.''
The Simpsons have even broken into the world of TV advertising, being featured in plugs for Butterfingers candy bars. Discussions are going on about a Simpsons record album, in which the family sings the blues. There is talk about a theatrical movie and a comic strip. There have even been requests for the Simpsons to make appearances on other TV shows (though Mr. Groening says the Simpsons are not aware of their fame and thus ought not to hobnob with other television personalities).
Merchandisers, though, know that any license is dicey. As Matt Mazer, a marketing consultant put it, ''They're betting on highly refined hunches and golden guts.'' Moreover, the tie-ins are reliant on the characters' popularity. ''These products are the dining cars on the train,'' Mr. Mazer said. ''The engine is the show.''
Chadwick Industries, a footwear company bringing out Simpsons shoes, snow boots, sandals and moon boots over the next year, said that orders are ''stronger than for any other licensed character we've had in the last four years.'' But the footwear's success, he acknowledged, is heavily reliant on Fox's assurances that the Simpsons will not go away. ''Fox's position is this is not going to be just a fad, a quick-in and quick-out,'' he said. ''The shoe business is too difficult to go with a fad.'' How does he know the Simpsons won't be a fad? ''I don't,'' he said. ''I'm just going by my instincts.''
Fox said it is being careful to exercise control of what marketers can make. ''We want to limit the merchandise to make it witty when possible so that it's not just an image slapped on the side of a plastic piece of junk,'' Mr. Groening said. ''Ridiculously high-end, expensive items don't mean anything to us, either. One thing we turned down was a limited edition gold medallion.''
Among other headaches Fox faces is bootlegged merchandise. Unauthorized Simpsons T-shirts, such as one that depicts Bart in bed with a naked woman, are widely being sold at cut-rate prices. Fox has been working with law enforcement authorities to crack down on the bogus goods.
An Askew View of Life
Of further concern is that everyone assigned to the series is frazzled from chronic overwork, in part because of a calamitous beginning. In a foul-up that the prankish Bart himself would have been proud to claim credit for, the show nearly self-destructed before it even got on the air.
The Simpsons sprang from the idiosyncratic mind of Mr. Groening, a 35-year-old cartoonist with a decidedly askew view of life. Until now, he was best known for a 10-year-old comic strip entitled ''Life in Hell,'' which boasts a powerful cult following. In 1987, he created the Simpsons, whom he calls a ''mutant Ozzie and Harriet,'' to star in brief segments separating skits on ''The Tracey Ullman Show.''
After some hard bargaining, Fox commissioned 13 episodes of a full-fledged series. The hope was the show would debut last September or October. But when Fox received the planned first episode from Korea, where many of the final touches were done, it contained some outrageous surprises.
When producers screened the tape, they were shocked to see that the director and a few of the animators had added unauthorized jokes of their own. The most offensive insertion appeared during a bit in which the Simpsons were watching a TV show called ''The Happy Little Elves Meet the Curious Bear Cubs.'' The animators had stuck in a scene in which a bear cub tore off the head of an elf and giddily began to drink his blood.
Appalled Silence
''Not exactly a minor addition,'' Mr. Groening said. ''When we watched it, we sat in the dark for about two minutes in silence. Then we ran for the door. I thought my career in animation had sunk to the bottom of the sea. Had that gotten on the air, there would be no show today.''
The director and culpable animators were summarily dismissed and the order of the shows had to be hastily shuffled. The initial episode was not broadcast until Dec. 17. Another month lapsed before the second show appeared, forcing some merchandisers to postpone shipping Simpsons products.
The problems triggered by that false start have put almost unbearable strains on the staff. ''The after-effects of that disastrous first show are being felt to this day,'' Mr. Groening said.
Keeping up with the inordinately difficult process of creating an animated show - from idea to finished product, an entire episode takes six months to complete - has required slavish work habits. To cope with next season, the staff has been appreciably increased. There are now six writers helping the executive producers and some 50 animators, compared with just Mr. Groening as the writer and two animators for the Tracey Ullman bits.
Still, the workload is onerous. ''We just work like crazy,'' Mr. Groening said. ''It takes about 52 weeks to do 22 episodes. So we have to figure out another solution.''
Now the question is will the show endure. ''We think we have something very special,'' Mr. Groening said. ''If we can do good things with it, we'll do them. But we don't just want to do things to do them. Most of all, I'm in this business to have fun.''
AIR FRESHENERS, GUM AND TALKING DOLLS
Merchandisers have been frustrated at getting adequate Simpsons products, though shortly the variety will grow. Within a few weeks, for instance, Chesapeake Consumer Products, a party-goods maker, will be introducing Simpsons paper plates, cups, napkins, horns and other party supplies.
''We really have shied away from licenses in general because so many of them have had short fuses,'' said Bill Heeter, the company's vice president. ''We know some marketers will take anything that looks cross-eyed at them. But the process of getting the artwork ready and approved can take three to six months. The cycle of when something is hot and then turns down can be that same three to six months. But in this case I know 5- and 6-year-olds who love them. There are several people in the office who are in their 20's and 30's who have Simpsons parties.''
How about an air freshener for the rear-view mirror of your car depicting the Simpsons pursuing one of their favorite pastimes: choking Bart? In a couple of weeks, it can be yours.
Medo Industries, which describes itself as the country's biggest seller of car air fresheners, will be marketing the Simpsons freshener. Mark Owens, Medo's president, has improved the smell in millions of cars with an Alf freshener and even more vehicles with the California Raisins freshener. He said the Raisins model sold 5 million to 6 million units when it came out four years ago and continues to sell a million fresheners a year at about $1 apiece. And the Simpsons? ''If the item is as successful as we think, it could be 4 or 5 million the first year,'' Mr. Owens said.
Dan Dee Imports, a doll maker, is bringing out a variety of Simpsons rag dolls and bean bags this summer. For the Christmas shopping season, it will unveil what it expects to be its biggest seller, a Bart talking doll. It will be capable of six different expressions, including, ''Au contraire'' and ''Kids of TV-land, you're being duped.''
Of course, it is necessary to have Bart bubble gum. Amurol Products, a division of the Wm. Wrigley Jr. Company, will introduce it beginning in June. Gary Schuetz, the vice president of marketing for Amurol, explained that the company tested three versions of Bart gum with its Candy Taster Club, which consists of 1,500 youngsters it draws on to sample new gum. Normally, it would go ahead and sell the one that chewed best. ''All three Bart gums tested so well that we're bringing them all out,'' Mr. Schuetz said. ''There is Bartmania out there. The show has almost become the 'Ed Sullivan Show' of the 1990's.''
THEY CAN'T GET ENOUGH
Probably no retailing chain is selling more Simpsons merchandise right now than the J.C. Penney Company. ''Our only problem is getting enough merchandise in,'' said Nancy Overfield-Delmar, the company's special events manager. ''As soon as it comes in, it sells off the shelves.''
The big retailing chain is in the process of establishing Simpsons shops in the children's departments in more than 1,000 of its 1,400 stores.
The retailer has also hired Willy Bietak Productions, which holds the license to perform live Simpsons skits in shopping malls and at fairs and arenas, to do 15-minute shows at its stores. These shows, in which actors will don costumes so they resemble the wacky-looking members of the Simpsons family, are expected to begin soon.
Penney's is of two minds over Fox's desire to control the number of Simpsons products appearing on the market. ''I understand how Fox wants to make sure this lasts as long as possible,'' Ms. Overfield-Delmar said. ''If you throw too much out, it can dilute the value of the license. On the other hand, we want as much merchandise as possible.''
