Congress is demanding action. State reportedly wants airstrikes. The Pentagon is worried about entry and exit strategies. The CIA is already delivering arms to Syrian rebels through Turkey and Jordan. USAID is delivering humanitarian assistance. But at the White House, officials are grappling with how to create a strategy on Syria that is effective and doable -- but doesn't drag the administration into yet another war in the Middle East.
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Thoughtful people agree there are few good options. But what has made the problem worse, say individuals on all sides, is that the Syrian conflict has been unfolding for more than two years as the administration seemed to dig its head in the sand, hoping against hope that the rebels could overthrow the Assad regime all by themselves. That's allowed differences in opinion to spill into public view, and created an impression that the Obama administration lacks any coherent plan. "If you're going to be on the pointy end of the spear, regardless of where that is... knowing you're going in with the full political support of the national leadership is critical," said one Congressional staffer. "Who can argue that that exists right now?"
And from a bureaucratic perspective, a lack of an effective structure inside the administration responsible for Syria has contributed to the impression of disarray from inside the government."I really am saddened by the fact that 2 ½ years into this, we don't have an interagency task force that is effective, efficient and organized," said one administration official.
The quandary in which the White House finds itself played out in the Situation Room last Wednesday. As Bloomberg columnist Jeffrey Goldberg reported, the Secretary of State John Kerry and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Marty Dempsey got into what was described as a heated exchange about the need to use airstrikes to send a real message to Syria's Assad regime. Kerry wanted them, Dempsey didn't. Aides familiar with the meeting say the meeting was more collegial than the Bloomberg portrayal -- less of a "cage match," and more of a discussion -- but the substance of the reporting was accurate.
To some, the debate between Kerry and Dempsey, and the sides each has staked out, may seem baffling. But with the Pentagon staring at grounded squadrons, docked carriers and even reduced window cleaning at the building, the U.S. military is on record as saying it can't afford to get into the Syrian conflict in any substantive way. And those outside the building recognize the administration has not articulated any kind of strategy into which the Pentagon could conceivably fit in.
Dempsey's resistance to airstrikes or no-fly zones runs deep: among proposals he's dismissed (at least in part) is one by the Institute for the Study of War's Joe Holliday. Months ago, he provided the Joint Staff with different courses of action for Syria, from train-and-assist programs to using Patriots as air defense batteries in Turkey and Jordan. He also suggested limited air strikes and a no-fly zone. "I was just trying to say that there are options between all or nothing," Holliday, a fellow at ISW, said. But Dempsey, like much of the brass beneath him, doesn't agree.
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