980 FXUS61 KLWX 290800 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 400 AM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SLIPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME EVEN MORE DIFFUSE AS IT STALLS OUT ALONG THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER LATER THIS MORNING. IMPACT FROM THE FRONT IS/WILL BE MINIMAL ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FOOTHILLS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...OTHERWISE CWA WILL BE DRY TO START THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SPREADS EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MORNING MAY START OUT WITH SOME CLOUDS PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT THE EXPECTATION IS FOR PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN UP THIS EVENING. MOS INDICATES TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT NEAR CLIMO FOR LATE OCTOBER. USED AN EQUAL BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED ADJMAV/MET FOR MAXIMA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE VA/NC BORDER WILL START MAKING ITS WAY BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS TONIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHERE WARM ADVECTION AND A POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS MAINTAINED CONTINUITY IN A DRY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS MAINTAINED CONTINUITY IN SOME SHOWERS. THE NAM STILL SUGGESTS SOME SHOWERS AT LEAST FOR A PORTION OF THE CWA ALTHOUGH ITS QPF FIELD LOOKS DIFFERENT THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE TAKEN ON AN ENSEMBLE TYPE APPROACH...WHICH RESULTED IN AN INTRODUCTION OR INCREASE IN POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. ITS POSSIBLE POPS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED MORE TO THE NORTH...BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES THIS ATTM. AS AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL SURGE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR CWA. MUCH OF ANY RAINFALL WILL BE CONSIDERED A CHANCE AND FOCUSED ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST PORTION OF CWA ALONG THE WARM FRONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER AS WELL AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE. A COLD FRONT WILL MARCH EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST ON THURSDAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH ON AN INCREASINGLY GUSTY WIND WILL HELP TO FUEL DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS COLD FRONT AND ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS AS WE HAVE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THURSDAY NIGHT AND A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE JET STREAM. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE FORMS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A GUSTY BREEZE COULD EVOLVE SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... INFLUENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL BE EVIDENT TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. MET SUGGESTS LOW CIGS /OF THE IFR VARIETY/ DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AND SIDED WITH VFR CIGS FROM THE MAV. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS OVER 25 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. NE WINDS AROUND 5 KT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT BUT WITH A WEAK GRADIENT EXPECT SPEEDS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS INTO WEDNESDAY DESPITE ANY SMALLER SCALE ENHANCEMENT FROM SE FLOW. SCA WILL BE LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXCEEDING 25 KTS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY GUST 30 TO 35 KTS IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A NEWLY FORMED COASTAL LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE TO OUR WEST. && .EQUIPMENT... WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING NOAA WEATHER RADIO OUTAGES AT SITES MANASSAS...PIKESVILLE AND HAGERSTOWN. TECHS WILL BE ADDRESSING THE OUTAGES EARLY THIS MORNING. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BPP/KLW NEAR TERM...BPP SHORT TERM...BPP/KLW LONG TERM...KLW AVIATION...BPP/KLW MARINE...BPP/KLW EQUIPMENT...BPP