October 12, 2012
The international system is
often accused of failing to give adequate early warning; of being myopic and
failing to furnish the appropriate powers with data and analysis that would
allow an effective and timely response to predictable disasters.
With the recent publication
of the report, “Gaza in
2020: a liveable place?”, it would be hard to level these accusations at
the United Nations Country Team in the occupied Palestinian territory. The
report is a trend analysis based on data from authoritative sources, such as
the UN’s Specialized Agencies, the World Bank and the IMF, which sets out
where Gaza will be in less than eight years time. This is early warning
writ large.
By 2020 the
population of the tiny Gaza Strip will grow by half a million people: 500,000
more to be fed, housed, educated, and employed. More than half of the
population will be under the age of 18, with one of the highest youth
populations as a proportion anywhere in the world.
The lack of safe drinking
water is the most urgent concern in Gaza today and it will only get
worse in the years to come. Currently, Gazans on average use up to 90 liters of
water per person per day, less than the 100 liters recommended by the World
Health Organization (WHO). Ninety percent of the water from the coastal
aquifer, by far the main water source in Gaza, is not safe for drinking
without further treatment. Three times as much water is currently extracted
from the aquifer as is recharged from rainfall every year. This situation is
not sustainable. By 2016, the aquifer may become unusable, and damage to it may
be irreversible by 2020 without remedial action now. Already, people have to
drill deeper and deeper to reach groundwater. The UN Environment Programme
recommends resting the aquifer immediately, as it would otherwise take
centuries for it to recover. At the same time, demand for water is projected to
grow to 260 million cubic meters per year in 2020, 60% more than is currently
extracted from the aquifer.
Only one quarter of sewage
is currently treated. The remaining three quarters are dumped into
the Mediterranean Sea—some 90,000 cubic meters per day or 33 million cubic
meters per year. Based on population growth, the amount of sewage and waste
water that is generated per year could increase from 44 million cubic meters
today to 57 million cubic meters in 2020. To respond to this, current
wastewater treatment plants need to be expanded and improved, and new ones need
to be built.
These predictions have
profound implications for all humanitarian and development organizations
in Gaza, particular the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), which
works with Gaza’s refugee communities. Some 70% of the Gazan population
are refugees, with UNRWA’s current caseload of over 1.2 million, expected to
rise to some 1.5 million by 2020. This 30% increase in refugees will require
massive investment to maintain current levels of service.
Take health: in 2011 there
were over 4.4 million patient visits to UNRWA health centers. That is expected
to rise to over 5.7 million annual visits at current rates. UNRWA’s 21 health
centers currently have an average catchment of approximately 57,000 registered
refugees; without new clinics that would rise to over 74,000 by 2020. To bring
UNRWA closer to WHO standards, the Agency currently needs an additional 90
doctors and 95 nurses. Solely to maintain current service levels by 2020, UNRWA
would need to add five new health centers, 220 doctors and over 300 other
health professionals, and that is without improving the present level of
service which stands at the unbelievable level of over 100 patient visits per
doctor per day.
In the education sector,
there are currently 226,000 students in UNRWA schools. That figure is set to
rise to some 275,000 by 2020. Currently UNRWA has 247 schools in 130
buildings, with 93% double shifting—in other words the same building with two
separate shifts of students and teachers each day. To get to single shifting
schools UNRWA requires 117 additional school buildings immediately and an additional
53 by 2020. Solely to maintain our current student teacher ratio we would need
over 2,000 teachers and support staff.
On social protection UNRWA
currently distributes food to over 900,000 refugees, after which some 44%
remain food insecure because of a lack of jobs. Without improvements in the
economy that can only come about with the lifting of the blockade that figure
will rise to over 1 million. An additional 350,000 refugees by 2020 means some
20,000 new shelters will be required.
Our prescription to avert
this looming but avoidable catastrophe is simple. While the UN has condemned
the rockets many times, we continue to demand a lifting of the blockade, which
is costing the international community hundreds of millions of dollars each year.
Allow the people of Gaza to enjoy the standards of development and
economic prosperity for which they yearn. They are capable of self-sufficiency.
They do not want the current levels of 80 per cent aid dependency to continue
and neither do the world’s taxpayers who fund the international aid agencies’
budgets. Let us address the root causes of this looming disaster rather than
expecting the international community to foot the bill to mitigate their
disastrous consequences.
Robert Turner is the Gaza Director for the
United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine refugees.