CYPRUS bedevils Turkey's hopes of joining the European Union. The problem dates almost as far back as the leasing of the island to Britain after the 1878 Congress of Berlin. In 1960 Cyprus won its independence and became a federal state that, in theory, respected the rights of both Greek- and Turkish-Cypriots (respectively 80% and 20% of Cyprus's 1m-odd people). But as early as 1964 the Turkish-Cypriots were driven into enclaves by the majority Greek-Cypriots.

In July 1974 a coup against the Greek-Cypriot leader, Archbishop Makarios, brought in a regime set on enosis, or union with Greece. Turkey invaded northern Cyprus in the same month. After a brief campaign the Turks captured over a third of the island, driving out or killing the Greek-Cypriots. A ceasefire line turned into a UN-patrolled green line. Nicosia is Europe's last divided capital.

There have since been six rounds of UN-sponsored talks on unifying the island. Until 2003 they foundered on the opposition of the obdurate Turkish-Cypriot leader, Rauf Denktash, who openly preferred the idea of an independent north and in 1983 proclaimed the Turkish Republic of North Cyprus, which was recognised only by Turkey. The most serious effort at a settlement came in 2003-04. Partly because the obstacle to unity had always been Mr Denktash, but mainly because Greece threatened to block EU enlargement to eastern Europe, the EU decided in 2000 that it would admit Cyprus as a member even if the island remained divided. With Mr Denktash sidelined and a new government in Ankara, the time seemed ripe for a new effort by the UN secretary-general, Kofi Annan.

But the effort was doomed by the unconditional promise to the Greek-Cypriots of EU membership. When the Annan plan for unification was set out in early 2004, that promise allowed the Greek-Cypriot leader, Tassos Papadopoulos, to urge voters to reject it. In April 2004 some 65% of Turkish-Cypriots, lobbied from Ankara, voted in favour, but 76% of Greek-Cypriots said no. A week later Cyprus joined the EU, with the acquis communautaire suspended in the north.

When Turkey opened its membership talks with the EU in 2005, Cyprus promptly became a big issue. As members, both Greece and Cyprus have a veto. Also, Turkey's customs union with the EU was due to be extended to all new EU members, including Cyprus. But the Turks have refused to allow Cypriot vessels access to their ports and airports because the Greek-Cypriots are blocking an EU promise, made after the referendums in 2004, to allow direct trade with the north.

In 2008 Mr Papadopoulos was ousted by a more moderate president, Demetris Christofias. By chance Mr Christofias was an old trade-union comrade of the Turkish-Cypriot leader, Mehmet Ali Talat. Their friendship encouraged another round of talks. But Turkish-Cypriot voters failed to re-elect Mr Talat in April 2010. Instead they chose Dervish Eroglu, an opponent of the Annan plan for unification who barely knows Mr Christofias.

The settlement talks might yet get a push from the European Parliament, which hopes to revive a regulation that would allow direct trade with the north. Under the Lisbon treaty, this can be adopted by majorities that circumvent a Cypriot veto. Yet it has only a small chance of passing. The odds on a settlement seem equally slim, even though Mr Eroglu and Mr Christofias are still meeting. There is now talk of permanent partition. But if the Cyprus problem remains unsolved Turkey has little hope of joining the EU.