Public Policy Polling

McConnell, Grimes still neck and neck

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest Kentucky poll finds that Mitch McConnell is the least popular Senator in the country and as a result Alison Lundergan Grimes is remaining very competitive with him, even as Democrats have struggled nationally over the last couple months.

Only 31% of voters approve of the job McConnell is doing to 61% who disapprove. He's only on narrowly positive ground with Republicans at 47/41, and he meets with nearly universal disapproval from independents (22/66) and Democrats (19/75). Attack ads in recent months have taken their toll on Grimes' image too- where in May she had a 34/24 favorability rating, now she's dropped a net 16 points to 31/37.

McConnell leads Grimes just 43/42 head to head. McConnell's 43% standing is the same as where we found him in October, while Grimes has seen a slight decline in her support from its previous 45% mark. As unpopular as McConnell is, it's helping his cause that Barack Obama is just as bad off with a 31% approval rating to 64% of voters disapproving of him.

Kentucky Senate race continues to look like a toss up

PPP's newest Kentucky poll finds that Mitch McConnell is the least popular Senator in the country and as a result Alison Lundergan Grimes is remaining very competitive with him, even as Democrats have struggled nationally over the last couple months.

Only 31% of voters approve of the job McConnell is doing to 61% who disapprove. He's only on narrowly positive ground with Republicans at 47/41, and he meets with nearly universal disapproval from independents (22/66) and Democrats (19/75). Attack ads in recent months have taken their toll on Grimes' image too- where in May she had a 34/24 favorability rating, now she's dropped a net 16 points to 31/37. She was at almost break even with Republicans in the spring at 26/30 but is now at 10/53.

McConnell leads Grimes just 43/42 head to head. McConnell's 43% standing is the same as where we found him in October, while Grimes has seen a slight decline in her support from its previous 45% mark. As unpopular as McConnell is, it's helping his cause that Barack Obama is just as bad off with a 31% approval rating to 64% of voters disapproving of him.

If Matt Bevin was somehow able to snag the Republican nomination from McConnell he would lead Grimes by the same one point margin, at 39/38. Bevin will have to come from behind in the primary though. Right now McConnell has a 53/26 advantage over him. McConnell is theoretically vulnerable. Primary voters say by a 42/39 margin that they'd like 'someone more conservative' to be the GOP nominee next year. Voters identifying themselves as 'very conservative' prefer someone else 55/31.

Congress and Republicans continue to sink

Raleigh, N.C. – When PPP last polled the American electorate in early October, at the beginning of the shutdown, Republicans already trailed Democrats in the generic congressional ballot by five points, and their 29% approval rating was ten points lower than Congressional Democrats’.  Now John Boehner and company are at 23%, with 72% disapproving of their job performance.  That ten-point gulf between voters’ opinion of them and Democrats is now 17 points, as Congressional Democrats have remained in place, at 40-56, almost identical to their 39-56 standing three weeks ago.

Congress has sunk to a new low of 6%, with 87% disapproving.  But though Americans despise the body as a whole, it remains much harder to get them to blame the individual representative they elected.  41% approve and 45% disapprove of the job their own congressperson is doing.  Democrats (48-37) like their representative much better than Republicans (41-41) or independents (31-59) do.

Republicans see Cruz as party leader

PPP's newest national survey finds that in the wake of the shutdown, Republican voters now view Ted Cruz as their party's leader. 21% picked Cruz to 17% for Chris Christie, and 15% for John Boehner. Cruz finished well ahead of the other GOP Senators we tested- Rand Paul got 9%, John McCain 7%, and Mitch McConnell only 4%. Mitt Romney at 8% and Sarah Palin at 4% were the other people we tested.

Numbers PPP will release next week show Ted Cruz would be an exceedingly weak Presidential candidate in the general election. The good news for the GOP is that even if the party base sees Cruz as their leader Democrats and independents actually see Chris Christie, who has far broader approval, as the leader of the Republican Party these days. With Democrats Christie gets 23% to 17% for Boehner and only 10% for Cruz. And with independents Christie gets 25% to 17% for Cruz and 10% for Boehner. Even if Republicans themselves see Cruz as their leader, they're better off with everyone else seeing it as Christie.

Democrats continue to lead Republicans on the generic Congressional ballot, 44/38. They have a slight advantage with independents (33/29) and Democrats (83%) are also more committed to supporting their own party next year than Republicans (78%) are. These numbers are pretty similar to the 5 point generic leads we found for Democrats nationally in late September and early October.

Grimes leads McConnell by 2

PPP’s newest Kentucky poll finds voters in the state extremely unhappy about the government shutdown, and taking it out on Mitch McConnell. The Republican Senator Minority Leader now trails Alison Lundergan Grimes 45/43 for reelection.

60% of Kentucky voters opposed the shutdown, compared to only 32% who supported it. Those numbers are in line with what we’ve found in other red states- it doesn’t matter if a place went for Obama by 20 points or Romney by 20 points last fall, the shutdown is a huge problem for Republican politicians everywhere.

48% of voters in the state say they’re less likely to support McConnell for reelection next year because he supported the shutdown, compared to only 34% who say they’re now more likely to support him.

The shutdown gives Grimes an opening to win over more moderate Republican voters. Even among GOP partisans 43% in Kentucky opposed the shutdown and Grimes is taking 18% of the Republican vote head to head with McConnell, a strong amount of crossover support for a Democrat in the state.

This race was already looking like a toss up even before the government shutdown, but unhappiness with McConnell over that just further reinforces this being a winnable race for Grimes.

This poll was sponsored by Americans United for Change. Full results here

Cruz leads national Republican field

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest national poll finds Ted Cruz is now the top choice of Republican primary voters to be their candidate for President in 2016. He leads the way with 20% to 17% for Rand Paul, 14% for Chris Christie, 11% for Jeb Bush, 10% each for Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan, 4% for Bobby Jindal, and 3% each for Rick Santorum and Scott Walker.

Cruz has gained 8 points since our last national 2016 poll in July while everyone else has more or less stayed in place. He's made himself the face of a government shutdown over Obamacare, and the Republican base supports that by a 64/20 margin. It's not surprising that Republicans identifying as 'very conservative' support a shutdown 75/10, but even the moderate wing of the party supports it by a 46/36 margin.

Cruz emerges as GOP leader

PPP's newest national poll finds Ted Cruz is now the top choice of Republican primary voters to be their candidate for President in 2016. He leads the way with 20% to 17% for Rand Paul, 14% for Chris Christie, 11% for Jeb Bush, 10% each for Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan, 4% for Bobby Jindal, and 3% each for Rick Santorum and Scott Walker.

Cruz has gained 8 points since our last national 2016 poll in July while everyone else has more or less stayed in place. He's made himself the face of a government shutdown over Obamacare, and the Republican base supports that by a 64/20 margin. It's not surprising that Republicans identifying as 'very conservative' support a shutdown 75/10, but even the moderate wing of the party supports it by a 46/36 margin.

Cruz is leading the GOP field based especially on his appeal to 'very conservative' primary voters, who he gets 34% with t0 17% for Rand Paul and 12% for Paul Ryan. Voters who fall into that ideological group make up the largest portion of the Republican electorate at 39%. With moderates Cruz gets only 4% with Christie leading at 34% to 12% for Jeb Bush and 10% for Marco Rubio, but they only account for 18% of GOP voters and thus aren't all that relevant to Cruz's prospects for winning a Republican nomination.

Our numbers also suggest that Cruz is now viewed more broadly as the leader of the Republican Party. When asked whether they trust Cruz or GOP leader Mitch McConnell more, Cruz wins out 49/13. When it comes to who's more trusted between Cruz and Speaker John Boehner, Cruz has a 51/20 advantage. And when it comes to Cruz and 2008 GOP nominee and Senate colleague John McCain, Cruz wins out 52/31. He now has more credibility with the GOP base than the folks who have been leading the party for years.

Democrats within striking distance of Mitch McConnell for 2014

Raleigh, N.C. – Next year’s Kentucky Senate race is shaping up to be extremely competitive, even without Ashley Judd in the mix. PPP’s latest poll finds Senator Mitch McConnell leading three possible Democratic challengers by 4 to 11 points.

In hypothetical 2014 match-ups, McConnell leads Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4 points (45/41), Ben Chandler by 5 points (46/41) and Ed Marksberry by 11 points (46/35). Grimes and Chandler are both within the poll’s margin of error. The biggest challenge for these candidates is consolidating the support of registered Democrats—24% of Democrats expressed support for McConnell in each of these contests.

McConnell continues to have an abysmal job approval rating with 54% disapproving and just 36% approving of his performance. These numbers are essentially unchanged compared to his 37/55 standing in PPP’s December poll of Kentucky.

McConnell remains extremely unpopular

PPP's newest poll of the Kentucky Senate race finds that Mitch McConnell continues to rank as the most unpopular Senator in the country, and that several Democrats are within striking distance of him in head to head match ups.

36% of voters approve of the job McConnell is doing to 54% who disapprove. That -18 net approval is the same as we found in December when he was at 37/55. McConnell gets tepid approval from Republicans (53/34) while meeting with disapproval from most Democrats (23/69) and independents (32/54).

It's just as well for Democrats that Ashley Judd decided not to challenge McConnell. Her popularity declined quite a bit over the last 4 months. In December a plurality of voters had a positive opinion of her at 42/36, but now her favorability numbers are under water at 34/41. The attacks on her clearly took a toll on her image.

The good news for Democrats is that they still have several candidates who poll within striking range of McConnell. Alison Lundergan Grimes, despite having only 50% name recognition, comes within 4 points of McConnell at 45/41. She's gained a little bit of ground on him since our December poll that found him with a 47/40 advantage. And former Congressman Ben Chandler trails McConnell just 46/41. Ed Marksberry, the only announced Democratic candidate in the race at this point, trails the incumbent 46/35.

NRA, Congressional Republicans seeing big popularity drop

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest national poll finds that the NRA's image has declined over the last three weeks following Wayne LaPierre's controversial press conference the week before Christmas.

The NRA now has a negative favorability rating, with 42% of voters seeing it positively while 45% have an unfavorable view. That represents a 10 point net decline in the NRA's favorability from the week before the press conference when a national poll we did found it at 48/41. Its image has taken a hit with both Democrats (from 29/59 to 22/67) and Republicans (71/19 to 66/18).

The NRA's focus on putting more guns in schools is likely what's driving the decline in the organization's image. Only 41% of voters support the organization's proposal to put armed police officers in schools across the country, with 50% opposed. Democrats (35/57) and independents (38/51) both oppose the push and even among Republicans only a narrow majority (52/39) supports it.