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02 Feb 2014

D.C. area forecast: Weekend ends warm ahead of multiple storm threats, including possible Monday snow
February 2 at 9:15 am
* Winter storm watch early Monday morning into Monday afternoon for Loudoun, Frederick, Montgomery and Howard counties *
Today’s Daily Digit
A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 1 to 10.
8Less sun than yesterday, but we stay mild and mostly dry ahead of this winter’s next stormy threat.
Express Forecast
Today: Partly to mostly cloudy, still mild. Passing p.m. shower?  Highs: Near 50 to mid-50s.
Tonight: Rain likely, possibly changing to snow north and west. Lows: 30s.
Tomorrow: Snow or rain likely. Highs: 30s.
Super Bowl Sunday brings us one last day on the mild side ahead of a more stormy pattern for the coming week.  The first of these storms could produce significant snow accumulations for some parts of the area tomorrow morning into midday, while at the same time leaving others a slushy or soggy mess thanks to temperatures not as cold as we’ve seen with recent storms. A second storm moves through toward midweek, but looks more like a wintry mix-to-rain situation.
Today (Sunday): Areas of fog early and mostly to partly cloudy skies through most of the day likely keep temperatures from reaching their full potential. That being said, highs ranging from near 50 to the mid-50s are a welcome treat as far as this winter goes. And there should be plenty of time to enjoy it with precipitation mainly holding off until this evening into the overnight, although there is a 30% chance of a passing afternoon shower. Confidence: Medium-High
Tonight: Light rain may move in this evening during the game (40% chance), and then rain becomes likely after midnight or so. As we move through the night, temperatures start to fall off as winds from the north blow in cooler air. By around 3-6 a.m., areas mainly north and west of the Beltway may be changing to snow from northwest to southeast, while areas inside the Beltway and to the south and east may still just be rain. Lows range from the low-to-mid 30s north and west of D.C., to the mid-to-upper 30s from D.C. toward points south and east. Confidence: Low-Medium
For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading the forecast for our next winter storm…
Tomorrow (Monday): The changeover from rain to snow tries to keep pushing south and east toward the District and south/east suburbs during the early-to-mid morning. But it’s unclear how far south and east the snow will make it. Regardless, temperatures a bit above freezing may limit the amount of snow that sticks (especially on pavement) inside the Beltway and to the south and east. That said, an inch or two of snow and some slick travel can’t be ruled out in these areas, except in Southern Maryland were mostly rain is expected. Snow has a better chance of accumulating an inch or two north and west of the Beltway, and perhaps around 3″ or more in the far north and west suburbs. Precipitation probably exits to the east during the early-to-mid afternoon with highs in the 30s. See our forecast map below for more details. Confidence: Low
Capital Weather Gang snowfall forecast for Monday, February 3. Issued February 1 at 9:40 p.m.
Tomorrow night: We dry out nicely during the evening into the overnight, as skies turn partly cloudy and lows dip mainly to the mid-to-upper 20s. Confidence: Medium
Snow Potential Index
A daily assessment of the potential for at least ~1″ of snow in the next week, on a 0-10 scale.
5 (↑): Rain changing to snow early Monday may refresh the snowpack for some. Storminess Fri-Sun bears watching too.
We get a brief break in between storms on Tuesday, and we’ll likely see some morning sun before clouds increase during the afternoon as highs manage the mid-30s to near 40. Confidence: Medium
The next system probably pushes precipitation into the area Tuesday evening and overnight. A wintry mix is possible at the onset with temperatures in the 30s. Right now it doesn’t look cold enough for significant icing until you get far north and west of D.C., but things could still change. As low pressure passes over or to the north and west of us, any frozen precipitation should give way to plain rain toward dawn, except perhaps lingering a bit longer far north and west of town. Rain remains likely through midday on Wednesday before tapering as we head through the afternoon. Highs could be as cool as near 40 or as as warm as near 50 depending on how far to the north and west the low passes. Confidence: Low-Medium
Dan Stillman contributed to this forecast
Brian Jackson joined the Capital Weather Gang in the Spring of 2008. He hails from the snowbelt region of upstate New York and holds degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oneonta and Florida State University.
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Winter 2013-2014
Snowfall total to date
30-yr average: 15.4"
Record most: 56.1" (2009-10)
Record least: 0.1" (1997-98 & 1972-73)
Winter Forecast 2013-14