World | Pakistan

Peace talks with Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan leaves no room for optimism

First phase of negotiations ends with agreement on a few rhetorical points

By Faryal LeghariDeputy Opinion Editor
Published: 17:08 February 8, 2014

Image Credit: AP
Maulana Abdul Aziz presents religious books during a news conference on Friday.

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Dubai: The preliminary rounds of the much-anticipated peace talks held between the government appointed committee and the one appointed by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have taken place. Initial delays aside, so far, both sides seem to have agreed on a few rhetorical points including the necessity of holding talks. Ironically, even the Taliban condemned violence in the first meeting, at the same time one of their bombers targeted Shiites in Peshawar.

There is little reason to feel optimistic, however, as the clearly maximalist position taken by the TTP cannot support dialogue. Unless, the Taliban feel threatened enough by another military operation to change tactics at the last minute, a prospect that is highly unlikely. In that eventuality, the TTP’s strategy would be to spread out and launch reprisal attack on the state’s nerve centres in urban areas. Thus, for the government it is a military offensive in North Waziristan and for the Taliban, the unlashing of reprisal attacks, that will be their ultimate bargaining chips. The question is how much is the government willing to concede ground to avoid another confrontation, especially when any offensive on the scale necessary for North Waziristan could create a spillover in Afghanistan, a situation Kabul and Washington would both want to avoid, given the presidential election this year and the security handover to the Afghan National Army (ANA).

Such an operation could only come in handy if it is conducted swiftly and supported by a build-up of international forces and ANA on other side. It could well put pressure on the Afghan Taliban as well for impacting the support from Pakistani Taliban and influence talks being held between them and President Karzai. But it is difficult to predict the turnout of such sensitive operations and it is a gamble everyone would have to risk if this turned out to be the only option.

As for the TTP peace talks, one day before the committees’ first round on Thursday, JUI-S chief Maulana Samiul Haq — nicknamed ‘Father of Taliban’ and who is also an integral part of the Taliban appointed committee — had declared that the main objective of the Taliban was imposition of sharia. This is not something surprising. The TTP have always been advocating a sharia based rule and this has been manifested in areas held by many of their commanders in the tribal areas before military operations were launched there. The problem is their interpretation of Islamic governance is extreme and on the lines of the Afghan Taliban regime when it was in power. The TTP has placed a ruthless power mechanism in place in Bajaur, Mohmand, South Waziristan and Swat, where locals were terrorised to comply and subjected to rigid governance.

Closure of the so called “secular schools” reviled by the Taliban for promoting indecency and considered to be the main factor in turning people away from Islam and prohibition on women and even small girls to go outside their homes unaccompanied by male relatives had become the norm. The fact that these are conservative areas where women observe purdah did not help their cause.

In short, the Taliban indulged in a ruthless power play while exploiting religion. Unfortunately, the civilian administration has been slow in consolidating control even after the army cleared areas under militant rule. It is highly likely that withdrawal of the military is likely to again create a vacuum drawing the Taliban back.

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For now some of the conditions set out by the TTP border on the ridiculous. They have demanded a ban on women to appear publicly in western attire and enforcement of sharia along with release of all Taliban prisoners. Is this something the government is willing to dole out as a means of securing peace and for how long is it likely to last?

The doomed peace agreements with other TTP heads brokered from 2007 onwards should serve a reminder that the militant organisation is only looking to widen its sphere of influence through illegitimate means and resorts to periodic agreements to buy time to recoup and deter new operations.

Unfortunately, past concessions given in the name of peace have only fostered the perception that Pakistan is a weak state, unable to defend its sovereignty from external violators — the US drone strikes [because of Pakistan’s refusal to acknowledge its part in allowing these] and sporadic Nato cross-border attacks on its soldiers — and internally from its indigenous militant groups.

The thousands of fatalities of security personnel and civilians at the hands of these militants should have been enough to formulate a binding political consensus once the PML-N government came in power last May to start a cleanup operation instead of wasting time. An All Parties Conference instead agreed to hold peace talks with the TTP.

An earlier attempt was aborted due to a drone attack on then TTP chief Hakimullah Mehsud near Miranshah in North Waziristan. Now with the notorious Mullah Fazlullah of Swat heading the TTP — more well known as Mullah Radio who gained immense notoriety for his brutal rule in Swat and who is abhorred by a significant number of the higher ranks of the military — it seemed there was only one option, to send the tanks rolling in.

Despite small operations to exact revenge for an attack on an army checkpoint in Miranshah last year, the army has been left in the sidelines, waiting for the proverbial nod from the prime minister. Something Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif seems reluctant to do, stressing at the eleventh hour the necessity of giving dialogue a chance.

It is clear that Sharif is avoiding plunging into a new offensive that may be the biggest considering that it is North Waziristan the army will be targeting to break the militants strongholds — not only of the TTP but also the Afghan insurgents, Al Qaida Arab fighters and those from Central Asia. Achieving peace through dialogue is a commendable initiative but short term gains made by hastily stitching a farcical agreement are likely to rip at the seams, especially now that the TTP has evolved into a significant force, not just consigned to the illaqa ghair (tribal areas or territory outside the jurisdiction of law). Its tentacles have spread to urban areas; the successful attacks it has staged through its network of operatives in Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar and Rawalpindi are a testament to the fact.

The very purpose of the TTP negates the framework set by the government for the talks. Its refusal to accept the constitution and demand for the imposition of sharia defeats the whole purpose of getting the Taliban to lay down arms and renounce all anti-state activities.

No strategy as how to reintegrate them if they even commit to such a condition through dialogue alone by some miracle has been discussed. Given the deadlock, these talks are doomed to fail. And it is ultimately the government that will have to take a hard decision for the larger national interest irrespective of the uproar.