Photo Credit: AP Photo/Karim Kadim

Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission released election results Monday, with Prime Minister Nori al-Maliki taking 92 seats out of 328,  ”more than three times as many [Parliamentary seats] as the second place group.” The showing improved on his 2010 performance, beat expectations of many Iraqi observers, and has been seen as “worrisome” in Washington, where “many top American officials were hoping to see Mr. Maliki go.”  Two Shia rival parties earned 29 and 28 seats, and three Sunni parties  won between 10 and 29 seats. The New York Times explained, “The apparent victory for Mr. Maliki validated his campaign strategy of putting himself forward as the essential man to fight a rising Sunni insurgency, even as his plan to dislodge militants from Anbar Province has faltered.”

“The run-up to the vote, Iraq’s first since US troops withdrew at the end of 2011, was plagued by attacks on candidates and campaign rallies.” Still, The Guardian reports that 62 percent of eligible voters cast ballots, the same turnout as in 2010. Participation of some Sunni-dominated regions was “limited because of the violence,” and some Sunni officials alleged interference in voting by Iraqi forces and Shia militias. Now …

Photo Credit: Associated Press

Militia groups allied with renegade general Khalifa Hifter stormed Libya’s parliament on Sunday demanding suspension of the government. The Associated Press quotes hospital officials as saying that “two people were killed and more than 60 were wounded.” The government and militia groups issued a number of announcements. Mokhtar Farnana spoke on behalf of Hifter’s forces saying that “the country’s 60-member constituent assembly … would replace parliament,” and the “government would continue to act on an emergency basis.” Salah al-Merghani condemned the violent attack and called on “all sides to resort to dialogue and reconciliation.” In addition, he said the parliament was still under government  control.

The BBC believes that “militias of ex-rebels have become de-facto powerbrokers in the vacuum of Libya’s political chaos” since the overthrow of Gadhafi, and these militias recently divided into an Islamist group and a nationalist movement. Esam Mohamed and Maamoun Youssef write that Hifter launched attacks against Islamists, “whom he accuses of seizing control of the country and opening the door to al-Qaida-inspired extremists.” In response, Nouri Abu Sahmein ordered Islamist militias to “mobilize and defend.” They add that “the conflict threatens to polarize Libya’s militias into pro-Hifter and pro-Islamist camps.” …

Photo Credit: Atlantic Council

On Thursday, May 15, 2014, the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East hosted a panel discussion entitled “The Big Picture: What Does Egypt’s Presidential Election Mean for its Future?” The panel featured Yussef Auf, Egyptian Judge and Non-Resident Fellow at the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East of the Atlantic Council, Michael W. Hanna, Senior Fellow at The Century Foundation, and H.A. Hellyer, Non-Resident Fellow at The Brookings Institution and Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. Amy Hawthorne, Senior Fellow at the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East of the Atlantic Council moderated the discussion.

For full event notes, continue reading or click here for the PDF.

H.A. Hellyer, who spoke via a Skype video feed from Cairo, began the discussion focusing on the fairness of the upcoming presidential elections. Noting the difficulty of establishing independent polls in Egypt, Hellyer believes it is challenging to predict the voter turnout before the elections are held. Additionally, Hellyer does not believe the elections will be particularly fair considering the military’s mandate to promote presidential candidate Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to the presidency. Hellyer further supported this opinion …

Photo Credit: Carnegie

On Wednesday, May 14 the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace hosted an event entitled “Success and Failures of the Arab Revolutions: A Discussion with Gilles Kepel.” The primary speaker, Gilles Kepel, is chair of the Middle East and Mediterranean Studies program at Science Po in Paris. Other panelists included William McCants, fellow at the Saban Center and director of its Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World; Frederic Wehrey, Senior Associate at Carnegie’s Middle East Program; and Sarah Chayes, Senior Associate at Carnegie’s Democracy and Rule of Law Program. Karim Sadjadpour, Senior Associate at Carnegie’s Middle East program, moderated the panel.

For full event notes, continue reading or click here for the PDF.

Sadjadpour introduced Kepel as the author of the book Jihad: The Trail of Political Islam and framed the discussion around the notion of a single “success” story in the Middle East, Tunisia, amid a field of somewhat failed revolutions. Kepel began by implying that it was “too early” to judge the successes of the Arab Spring, and then laid out his theory of the Arab Spring as having occurred in three distinct phases across three separate “zones.” The …

Photo Credit: Naharnet

Members of Parliament failed to elect a president for a fourth time today. The next attempt will be May 22, just three days before the end of President Michel Suleiman‘s term. If Lebanese MPs fail to elect a new president by the May 25th deadline, President Michel Suleiman is considering “a legal measure” to “keep him at Baabda Palace pending the election of a new head of state.” The “March 14 alliance, European countries, the United States, Arab Gulf States and Russia, among others, all voiced agreement over extending Suleiman’s term if a consensual candidate was out of reach,” while March 8 and Hezbollah opposed extending Suleiman’s term. Currently, March 14′s Samir Geagea, head of the Lebanese Armed Forces, has the support of 48 deputies, resulting in “an impossible conundrum, with half of the Lebanese asking for a strong president, while the other half discarded what its tenors identified as a confrontational candidate.” Geagea has “reiterated his willingness to back out of the presidential race if March 14 agrees on a different candidate,” saying, “What I care about is the achievement of my presidential election platform…even if it was through someone else.” March 8 …