Readers of my column will have realized by now that I am
impressed by survey research, especially when recurring surveys of the same
population provide accurate insights into people’s core values, along with
analyses of their views on the political issues of the day. This is the case
with the results of the second annual Arab Opinion Index that have just been
released by the Doha-based Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies,
comprising interviews with over 20,000 men and women across 14 Arab countries
in 2012/13 (covering 89% of the Arab population, with a 2-3% margin of error).
The most important aspect of this survey in my view is its
clarification that most Arabs seek to live in democratic governance systems and
also define themselves as religious. One of the great Orientalist slanders
about Arabs and Muslims around the world in recent decades has been the
questioning of whether our societies could become democratic. This questioning prevailed
before the current revolutions and uprisings started 30 months ago, when
skeptics saw our chronic autocracies and monarchies as proof of our inability
to practice democracy; and today the same skeptics see the slow steps to stable
democratic systems in several Arab countries as new proof that Arabs/Muslims
and democracy are incompatible.
The survey results from this year (and last year) show that 82%
of Arabs see a democratic political system as appropriate for their own
country. A large majority of Arabs also defines itself as very, or to some
extent, religious—but a majority also opposes religious officials having
influence on public affairs or on the electorate’s voting choices. The
population is almost evenly divided on whether “it would be better if religion
were separated from public life.”
I interpret these results to mean that Arabs broadly want their
religious values to shape their public policies, but they also want their
personal freedoms and rights to be guaranteed by a non-religious governance
system. Striking that balance between religiosity and democratic pluralism is
exactly what the current slow-moving constitutional development processes are
all about in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia.
Here the important results of the survey’s questions about the
public’s assessment of the revolutions/uprisings portray a citizenry that
clearly appreciates that time is needed to achieve the goals of new democratic
systems of governance to replace the old autocracies.
A majority (65%) believes the Arab revolutions will succeed.
This comprises those who feel the revolutions already have achieved their goals
(20%), or will do so in 1-3 years (26%) or in 4-7 years (19%), while only 11%
feel the revolutions will not achieve their goals. This confident and patient
majority defines the aims of the revolutions as including “securing human
rights, guaranteeing public liberties including freedom of expression and of
association, laying the foundations for democracy, combating corruption, and
achieving social justice.”
A 61% majority of respondents described the Arab uprisings as a
positive development, and 22% saw them as negative. On the situation in Syria,
77% supported the departure of Bashar Assad from the presidency and 66% saw a
full regime change in Syria as the most desirable solution to that crisis.
Of course, these are snapshots of people’s sentiments at a
particular moment, and they can change in line with changing conditions on the
ground. Yet these findings strike me as significant because they provide two consecutive
years of large-scale polling that captures relatively consistent expressions of
people’s political sentiments and their underlying values across the entire
region. If the democratic process is valuable—which it clearly is—and the
consent of the governed matters—which it certainly should—then it is probably
worth our while absorbing the meaning of those opinions and values that so many
Arabs express here (which are in line with findings from most other surveys in
the past decade, by the way).
It is important to recognize that one’s values-based aspiration
for democratic life can be deep, genuine and stable, while one’s ability to
make that aspiration a reality in a country like Egypt today can be ponderous
and erratic. The findings from polls like this—not to mention daily
conversations with Arab men and women across the region—suggest the need for
more qualitative research that drills deeper into how individuals feel they
best reconcile their religiosity with their democratic instincts, and where they
draw the line between public life, organized politics, personal liberties, and
divine exhortations.
The 2012/13 ACRPS also has fascinating data about Arab citizen
sentiments on Arab nationalism, the perceptions of the USA, Israel and Iran,
media use, and other relevant issues (http://english.dohainstitute.org/). On the key issue of how religion and democracy can and
do coexist in the minds of ordinary Arabs, this survey is an important addition
to that growing body of evidence that in the enticing world of religion and
politics, Arabs, in fact, can walk and chew gum at the same time.
Rami G. Khouri is Editor-at-large of The Daily Star, and
Director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International
Affairs at the American University of Beirut, in Beirut, Lebanon. You can
follow him @ramikhouri.
Copyright © 2013 Rami G.
Khouri—distributed by Agence Global