December 16, 2013
The
world's population broke the 7 billion person barrier in 2011 and is projected
to increase by 40 percent in the coming forty years. Population growth averages
vary among the world's nations, with the populations of developed nations expected
to increase by just 10 percent, and the greater part of population growth
expected to come from developing nations, especially the least developed, where
population is expected to double in the coming four decades.
So what
about Egypt’s population outlook? Egyptian census data shows that in 1948,
Egypt's population reached nearly twenty million, added another twenty million
by 1975, twenty million more by 1994, with the populace reaching sixty million.
Another twenty million over the next seventeen years means eighty million Egyptians
by 2011. Egyptians needed thousands of years to reach the first twenty million,
before managing to double several times in a few years, without creating a
concomitant increase in agricultural land or available water to ensure securing
the necessities of life. They also failed to achieve human development and the quality
of life achieved by other developing nations.
The United
Nations' population department issues periodical projections for the world's
nations—based on different scenarios, according to those nations' potential fertility
and mortality rates in the coming years. The latest study indicates that even
if Egypt follows a low fertility scenario, the population will continue to grow
reaching 100 million by 2036, then hitting 105 million by 2050 and settling at
that level.
If,
however, fertility rates are high, Egypt will break 100 million by 2025, and reach 140 million by the year
2050— a scenario that can be described as the "national suicide."
If the
reader should wonder whether Egypt is likely to have to the low or high birth
rate, he will find a shocking answer. The latest figures from the last three
years indicate that current birth rates go beyond the high fertility scenario
prepared by the United Nations' population department. That is to say that the
continuation of current birth rates will take Egypt to a population of 100 million
before 2025, and if Egyptians continue to adopt the prevailing reproductive
values in the coming decades, it is not inconceivable that the scenario of
national suicide be realized faster than we imagine.
Worthy of
note is the fact that the estimates put forth by United Nations' population
department indicate that population growth in Egypt exceeds Turkey and Iran,
even though the population of those two nations was equal to Egypt’s at the
beginning of the millennium.
If we
look at vital statistics in Egypt, we find that the number of births in the 1990’s
was approximately 1.6 million on average. This annual average increased to
approximately 1.8 million newborns in the first decade of the twenty-first
century, with the last three years indicating an unprecedented increase. Breaking
the two-million-newborn barrier in 2008, the rate reached 2.4 million newborns
in 2011, and 2.6 million in 2012 according to data published by Central Agency
for Public Mobilization and Statistics.
To
evaluate the level of population growth that has occurred in Egypt relative to
other nations, it is important to note that in 1950, the number of newborns in
Egypt equaled that of Italy, and by 1977 the number of newborns in Egypt had
come to equal that of Italy and France combined. By the year 2000 it came to
equal the combined total of Italy, France and Spain, and the number of newborns
in Italy, France, Spain and the United Kingdom by 2012. These facts raise many
questions and conclusions, perhaps the most important of which is the resources
Egypt can allocate to educate the 2.6 million newborns when they reach
schooling age, and the resources that will be allocated by the aforementioned
four nations for the same number of students, and in turn, the return that we
expect in the future in light of competencies, knowledge, skills and attitude pre-requisites
to survive in an increasing competitive global environment.
The
relative fertility access in Egypt is not confined only to comparing Egypt to
European countries. It applies as well when comparing Egypt to other developing
countries. For example, birthrates in Egypt exceed those in Indonesia, Turkey,
Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Mexico, Brazil, Bangladesh and Vietnam, not to
mention India and China. With such differentials the gap in quality of life is
likely to widen; not only that between Egypt and developed nations, but also
between Egypt and other developing countries that have managed to achieve higher
economic growth and lower population growth rates.
The aforementioned
numbers are hard to ignore, but will not likely resonate in Egypt—the current
political scene does not pay much mind to planning for the future, or to thinking
scientifically about how to build it and deal with its challenges. But it is a patriotic duty to put the
Egyptian population program at the top of the priority list. Only then would there
be hope for a better future for our children and grandchildren. Otherwise,
collective suicide is the only available scenario.
Magued
Osman is the CEO and managing director of the Egyptian Center for Public
Opinion Research, Baseera. This article originally appeared in Al-Shorouk.