September 26, 2013
Following the events of July 3 in Egypt, Morocco’s
leading Islamist Justice and Development Party (PJD) risks losing some of the
advantages it gained following the constitutional amendment of July 2011—not to
mention fears of marginalization within an already hostile political field.
King Mohammed VI’s speech marking his 50th anniversary celebration has been interpreted as a direct
criticism of the PJD’s government (pointing out specific shortcomings such as
the decline in education performance), and a sign of a brewing confrontation
between the palace and the PJD.
Since Morsi’s overthrow, the PJD’s leadership has
been terrified that the events in Egypt will provide the Makhzen an excuse to
sabotage the PJD’s experiment in power. This is particularly daunting given
that the party and its leader Abdelilah Benkiran face significant political
pressure on all fronts (from the palace, coalition partners, and opposition
parties in the parliament). The ramifications of events in Egypt on Morocco can
be seen through the reactions of palace and pro-palace players. King Mohammed
VI was quick to congratulate Egypt’s interim President Adly Mansour immediately
after his appointment. Likewise, two hours after the royal statement, the
pro-monarchy Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM) issued a statement
defending the army’s intervention as protecting Egyptian institutions and democracy,
though the palace had not commented on the recent bloody crackdown. The
palace’s position was in step with that of the Gulf monarchies—except
Qatar—which were glad to get rid of the brotherhood.
The Istiqlal party (Independence Party), a former
partner in the PJD led coalition government, and a historically pro-palace
party, hasted their withdrawal from the coalition prompted by the events in
Egypt. As Morsi was deposed, Istiqlal’s secretary general Hamid Chabat called forthe Moroccan prime minister to step down
“like his Brotherhood brother Mohammed Morsi” and the dissolution of the PJD. The
party’s newspaper, Al-Alam, compared Morsi and Moroccan Prime
Minister Abdelilah Benkirane, saying that both had failed to make good on their
election promises of fighting corruption and despotism, and had proven overly
domineering.
It appears that Istiqlal’s antagonism during the
past six months was at the suggestion of advisors close to the king. Thus,
Chabat’s actions to impede the government stemmed from the conflict of interest
between the palace and the government’s planned reforms, including the
compensation fund, to which Benkirane admitted not foreseeing such sizeable,
entrenched resistance.
On the streets, some popular unrest has been
directed at the PJD-led government’s inability to achieve concrete social and
economic reforms, especially after the plans to reform the compensation fund
and tax system—the government had been pushing to replace the compensation fund
allocations with direct cash transfer to poor families and to abolish the tax
loopholes for large corporations—ground to a halt. However, the slow pace of
progress on implementing reforms opened up the government to criticism from
labor unions, political parties, and NGOs.
Furthermore, the success of the Tamarrod movement
in Egypt has inspired some to seek to replicate it in Morocco. Morocco’s tamarrod movement has
called for demonstrations to bring down Benkiran’s government by August 17.
Members of the opposition (including the Social Union of Popular Forces or USFP
and PAM) joined the ranks of Tamarrod aiming to weaken the PJD. The movement
has canceled its activities in the wake of the events of August 14 in Egypt.
However, obvious differences between Egypt and
Morocco render the question of a replication of the events of July 3 obsolete.
Those include the types of political system, role of the army, political
context, and regional dynamics. Morocco’s electoral system, with a fragmented
parliamentary political scene, necessitates the formation of a broad ruling
coalition. Furthermore, Morocco’s military has been kept out of direct
involvement in politics since the 1970s—largely due to the two coup attempts
against the King Hassan II. Additionally, the monarchy has been able to manage
the political protests since February 20, 2011 rather competently allowing it
to strengthen its legitimacy and reputation—which had been suffering from the
increased political manipulation that marked Moroccan politics since 2003.
However, what the political elite in Morocco could learn from Egypt is that
joining forces is the best way to confront increasing authoritarianism.
The question (or the fear) for the PJD is whether
the events of Egypt will open the door for Morocco’s pro-monarchy players to
marginalize the party and render it irrelevant. In an attempt to protect
itself, PJD leadership sought to avoid conflict with the monarchy, which was
vocal in supporting the coup, given the anti-coup views within its own
rank-and-file. The PJD’s response aimed to alleviate the pressure against it
and appease everyone, including its supporters and the monarchy, by
distinguishing between the official position of the government (a neutrally worded
statement issued by the foreign ministry headed by former PJD secretary general
Saad Eddine Othmani) that of the party (condemning the coup and stressing
differences between them and the Muslim Brotherhood) and the anti-coup stanceheld by its parallel
organizations such as the Unity and Reform Movement, the PJD youth wing, and
the Renewal student organization (Orema). They also protested—side by side with
Al adl wal Ihassan and some Salafis—against the bloodshed following the
crackdown on the pro-Morsi sit-in in Cairo. Even Benkirane’s wife attended the
anti-coup protestations that took place August 18 in Rabat. The PJD thus
assigned different roles to its various components to alleviate the pressures
it faces from various sides.
The PJD’s fear of the repercussions of Egypt’s in
Morocco remains palpable, and they are hardly reassured by the mixed signals
coming from the palace. Although the party too is sending mixed signals, they
are threatening that destabilization will be Morocco’s fate if harsh
authoritarianism returns.
This article is reprinted with permission from
Sada. It can be accessed online at:
http://carnegieendowment.org/sada/2013/08/28/what-will-egypt-mean-for-morocco/gkl7
Mohammed Masbah is a visiting fellow at the
German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin and a
regular contributor to Sada.
* This article was translated from Arabic.