January 24, 2015
A king
has passed in Saudi Arabia. And yet, despite the breathless speculation over
the seismic effects of succession, the kingdom’s foreign policies are likely to
remain unchanged. What is often overlooked is that Saudi foreign policy has
been remarkably consistent since the reign of King Fahd bin Abdul Aziz. The Al
Saud family is a tightly knit, conservative coterie that shares a similar
vision of the world and Saudi Arabia’s place in it.
There
are several indications to suggest that the Saudi succession is unlikely to
lead to major changes in policies over the short term. King Abdullah had been
largely incapacitated before his death, functioning for, at most, a couple
hours a day. The new king, Salman bin Abdul Aziz, and Crown Prince Muqrin bin
Abdul Aziz had represented King Abdullah at various functions in the past few
years. The new head of the royal court is also the new defense minister,
Mohammed bin Salman. At only thirty-four years old, he’s a young son of King
Salman, but he has been head of Salman’s court as crown prince. As Salman’s
health has deteriorated (he’s reportedly suffering dementia), Mohammed bin
Salman has grown very powerful and influential over his father, which has made
many Saudi royals very concerned about his power.
On particular
issues, Saudi Arabia is unlikely to significantly change its policies with the
death of King Abdullah. The general contours of U.S.-Saudi relations,
particularly against the Islamic State, seem to be under the control of the new
deputy crown prince, the Minister of Interior Prince Mohammed bin Nayef.
The centerpiece of U.S.-Saudi relations has always been at the interior
ministry–intelligence level. The elevation of Mohammed bin Nayef’s
position to handle the Syria portfolio last year only cemented this bond.
Saudi
policy is likely to remain unchanged on the Iran front too. The Saudi distrust
of Iranian power in the region is shared by many first generation princes. It
is true that Abdullah spearheaded the Saudi-Iranian détente in the 1990s
under former Iranian president Hashemi Rafsanjani. But with regard to current
relations, King Abdullah was always suspicious about whether President Hassan
Rouhani could deliver with the hardliners in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps
actually making decisions. Given recent events in Yemen as well as the ongoing
conflicts in Syria and elsewhere, the enmity between Saudi and Iran is likely
to continue under King Salman bin Abdul Aziz.
With
the purview of Prince Mohammed bin Nayef on Syria and Prince Bandar bin Sultan
on Egypt, one should expect Saudi policies toward the two countries not to
change with the coming of a new Saudi king. Saudi aid to Egypt has already been
curtailed and there are moves to pressure Egyptian President Abdel Fatah
el-Sisi to make subsidy reforms. The Saudis cannot sustain the aid indefinitely
with the declining price of oil and a projected budget
deficit of more than 1 percent in 2015, the highest deficit in
its history.
There
are mainstream Saudis who recognize the threat posed by the Islamic State to
the kingdom, but at the same time, they may tacitly acknowledge the virtues of
the jihadist group as a Sunni buffer against an expanding Shia crescent. The
Saudis have definitely instructed their official clerical establishment to demonize
the Islamic State, but the fact remains that the Islamic State’s textbooks and
ideology draw heavily from Saudi religious scholars. None of this is likely to
change under the leadership of King Salman, who is thought to be more
conservative than King Abdullah. The Saudi authorities under Abdullah have
imprisoned Salafi clerics who opposed King Abdullah’s reforms and this trend of
controlling clerical discourse will continue.
Saudi
oil policy has been largely controlled by technocrats, headed by Ali Naimi, the
Saudi minister of petroleum and mineral resources. Further, one of the most
influential figures in the ministry is Abdulaziz bin Salman, the son of King
Salman. Thus, again, one should not expect the change in monarch crisis to
affect the Saudi oil policy in the short term. Saudi Arabia is likely to
continue to favor preserving its market share even as this means the decline of
the price of oil.
The
swift appointment of Interior Minister Mohammed bin Nayef as the new deputy
crown prince has finally shown how power would move to the next generation in
Saudi Arabia. Mohammed bin Nayef, a grandson of the founder of Saudi Arabia,
has led Saudi counterterrorism efforts since the early 2000s. While some may
hope for reforms, as the throne moves to younger generations, one should not
expect much in future years.
The
current crown prince, Muqrin bin Abdul Aziz, is rumored to be a liberal, but he
has reportedly argued for the suppression of Shias in the Eastern Province.
Further, Minister of Interior Prince Mohammed bin Nayef may be effective at
counterterrorism, but his appointment as deputy crown prince is no good news
for liberal activists, as his position at the interior ministry has meant that
he has responsible for the suppression of all sorts of dissent at home,
including by liberals.
This
article is reprinted with permission from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. It can be accessed online at: http://carnegieendowment.org/syriaincrisis/?fa=58810
Frederic
Wehrey is a senior associate in the Middle East Program at the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace and author of Sectarian Politics in the Gulf:
From the Iraq War to the Arab Uprisings.