June 16, 2014
After a
six-month campaign to assert a tenuous hold over Fallujah, and the failure to
fully control Ramadi or to expand the insurgency to the rest of the cities of
Anbar, the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) is using a new tactic. The
group is attacking certain cities and then storming out, as happened recently
in Samarra, to
distract the military efforts against it. It also seeks to control major
cities, as happened in Mosul after four days of fighting with government forces
who failed to keep the city after the senior security, military, and political
leaders defected.
But despite these gains, the Western Desert on the Iraqi-Syrian border, 300
kilometers (180 miles) west of Ramadi in Anbar Province and the main stronghold
of ISIS, remains of strategic importance and is vital for the group to maintain
control of the area.
In Anbar,
which provides a land bridge over the border and facilitates the flow of
fighters and arms to and from eastern and northeastern Syria, large swaths of
which ISIS controls, the group has focused its military efforts since entering
Ramadi on eliminating old tribal Awakening (Sahwa) forces under
Ahmed Abu Risha and newer Awakening ones led by Mohamed al-Hayis to prevent a
powerful coalition from forming against it. The clashes that followed the arrest of
Member of Parliament Ahmed al-Alwani in December 2013—and the subsequent
standoff between government troops and armed groups, most of whom were members
of the tribe angered by Alwani’s arrest and the killing of his brother—allowed
ISIS just that. It gave them a chance to move into Ramadi, taking over several
neighborhoods.
After
ISIS seized the suburbs of Ramadi, including Albu Bali, al-Mulahama, and
Jazeerat al-Khaldiya, most of the local population fled to safer areas.
However, ISIS quickly abandoned the newly conquered territory to pursue a
guerrilla warfare strategy, launching constant attacks on government troops who
have returned to secure the area. The Iraqi army has so far been unable to
reassert control over much of the contested neighborhoods, often entering into
an area only to quickly withdraw under heavy fire. At other times, ISIS will
withdraw its fighters as government troops advance, only to then stage a
counterattack a few hours later and reclaim it. This explains the government’s
drawn-out offensive in Hayy al-Mala‘ab—despite repeated announcements that
government troops have seized control of the entire area, complete with images of deployed
soldiers displayed on local stations, but without any official acknowledgments
of the subsequent losses of control.
Since,
ISIS has strengthened its control of the outlying Ramadi suburbs of Sufia, Albu
Obaid, Albu Bali, Albu Faraj, and in some neighborhoods within the city proper,
such as Hayy al-Dubbat, Hayy al-Ta’mim, Hayy al-Mala‘ab, and other
neighborhoods in the main thoroughfare running through the southern part of the
city and connects its eastern and western halves. Strongholds such as Hayy
al-Dubbat and Hayy al-Mala‘ab have seen intense fighting between SWAT teams,
local police, and the counterterrorism Golden Brigade unit, which is supported
by some of the old Awakening Councils led by Ahmed Abu Risha. The new Awakening
Councils, however, have been absent from the scene due to lack of government
support and defections to the old Awakening Councils, especially since Abu
Risha ended a year-long feud with the federal government to join forces against
ISIS in December.
Following
a successful entry into Fallujah in January 2014, which ISIS wanted as a
stepping stone for attacks against Baghdad, the group formed an implicit
agreement with tribal insurgents and the local military council, which includes
armed former opposition factions and some former army officers. According to
this agreement, ISIS can be present in Fallujah proper but may not launch
revenge attacks against public property, former officials, party leaders, or
former Awakening members, while also refraining from labeling any others as
infidels (takfir), raising its flag, or forcing others to swear
allegiance. The agreement also dictates that ISIS is to act in full
coordination with the military council and the tribal insurgents in everything
related to military action or civil administration, and cannot unilaterally
claim credit for any attack on government troops.
The
group’s presence in Fallujah gives the government and Ramadi Awakening Councils
a pretext to attack the city, possibly weakening the Sunnis’ position
nationally and regionally. Even if the army continues to press its offensive
indefinitely, it will not curb the militants’ attacks or capabilities, due to
the insurgents’ superior combat experience dating back to the Saddam Hussein
era and insurgency training acquired during the U.S. occupation. The government
troops, in comparison, are largely inexperienced units and are highly dependent
on the militias including the Badr Organization, Kata’ib Hezbollah, and the
Mahdi army, among others.
The
recent fall of Mosul will,
at least in the short term, allow ISIS greater access and mobility in Syria and
Iraq. It will also allow them control of the oil pipeline between Kirkuk and
the Turkish port of Ceyhan, in addition to water and electric resources through
the Mosul Dam. But despite these gains, ISIS still faces serious challenges in
Anbar, including the potential for a broader tribal-government coalition that
could push it out of the city. A political deal with
the federal government to facilitate this coalition, if reached, would almost
certainly lead local military councils and tribal insurgents to switch sides.
The latter, despite their deep mistrust of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki,
would prefer to be reintegrated into state institutions than to harbor a
terrorist organization. This is compounded by the losses ISIS has faced in
Syria, where the Free Syrian Army and some Islamist factions including Jabhat
al-Nusra are pushing back against them, which will restrict the flow of
militants into Anbar. In recent months, ISIS has ceded chunks of territory in
Syria’s Deir ez-Zor Province on the Iraqi border, with most of its fighters
retreating to Raqqa Province, deeper within Syria. Other fighters have
apparently crossed into Iraq, as suggested by the killing of
top ISIS leader Abu Abdul-Rahman al-Kuwaiti near Ramadi in late March.
Recent
events notwithstanding, local media stations have
been downplaying ISIS’s
gains in Anbar, something the group seems to welcome because they fear an
acknowledgment of its presence could hasten a tribal-government alliance
against it. In the meantime, ISIS is seeking to mend its relations with the
Sunni community, while establishing cells within Sunni areas that would allow
it greater future strike capabilities and give it a chance for more daily
interactions that could improve its local image—all while fighting the
Shia-dominated army and those Sunnis it labels “apostates” in the police and
Awakening Councils.
Leaders
in the Sunni community, including tribal leaders and religious scholars, worry
ISIS might reestablish itself in the areas it controlled in 2005–2006, not
because they fear the group would impose its strict interpretation of Islam,
but for fear of reprisals against the Sunni community for their cooperation
with U.S. troops in fighting ISIS between 2006 and 2008. This worry also
applies to many former armed Sunni opposition factions—including Hamas of Iraq,
the 1920 Revolution Brigades, the Islamic Front for the Iraqi Resistance
(JAMI), and the Islamic Army—which at the time joined the U.S.-allied Awakening
Councils.
Already
on the defensive in Syria—standing alone against the Free Syrian Army, Jabhat
al-Nusra, and other factions—ISIS cannot afford heavy losses in the battles in
Fallujah and Ramadi. As ISIS seems to be fully aware, it is likely to be on the
losing end should the military council and tribal insurgents join forces with
the federal government against it. For this reason, the group is likely to pour
new fighters into Anbar Province.
This
article is reprinted with permission from Sada. It can be accessed online
at: http://carnegieendowment.org/sada/2014/06/12/isis-and-anbar-crisis/hdlf
Raed
El-Hamed is an Iraqi journalist and member of the Iraqi Journalists’ Syndicate.
He is a regular contributor to Sada.
This
article was translated from Arabic.