Abdulsalam Mohammed is the head of the Abad Center for Strategic Studies in Sana'a. In October, the center released a report, predicting that the Houthis would invade the south. This month, that prediction came true. The Houthis are currently engaged in a number of fronts in the south, seeking to expand their control.  

Mohammed, who supports the strikes in Yemen, said the move was necessary to maintain the security of the region. He claims that the Houthi takeover has prompted Saudi Arabia to re-examine its role in the country by helping to build institutions, instead of relying on its ties to individuals, families or tribes.

In an interview with the Yemen Times, Mohammed answers a number of questions about where he thinks the country is heading.

The Saudi-led coalition is targeting Houthi military locations in several areas of the country. Is this part of the solution or an exacerbation of the political crisis in Yemen?
I think the Saudi-led coalition became a necessity when the sovereignty of the state was lost to an armed militia. Yemen posed a threat to regional and international security given its geopolitical position. The country would not be just a source of worry, but also a source of violence and destruction to the region. Many factors pushed the Gulf countries to interfere, including maintaining their national security. The Gulf has realized that their foe, Iran, has gained the upper hand in the country through the Houthis, who made use of Saleh's [friendliness] towards them. Therefore, I think Saudi Arabia felt that it was a [mistake] on their part that they formed such alliances with individuals in the past, and it is taking responsibility for that and taking responsibility for Yemen. It is true that the Saudis' priority is to maintain the security of the gulf region, but they also say they will support building participatory democratic systems in Yemen. From now on, they will not support Yemen through individuals, families or oppressive regimes. This goodwill has a motive. Yemen, through its numerous rounds of conflicts, has posed a threat to the region, and Saudi Arabia has to support a political system that will be stable, independent and sovereign.  

Saudi Arabia does not have a history of supporting democratic movements in Yemen. It is a monarchy; do you really think they would allow Yemen to have a democracy on their border, let alone help the country establish such a system?
Saudi Arabia has historically worked through ruling parties and families in Yemen, and as the kingdom can see, this has not benefited Yemen. If Saudi Arabia wants a stable country as its southern neighbor, it has no option but to support a system that will mitigate the suffering of its people, end corruption, and build the economy. If it returns to its old policies, the conflicts will continue. This is not in the benefit of Saudi Arabia.

In line with the big military loss of the Houthis, do you expect Iran's possible intervention?
Iran has no a chance of any direct military intervention because it has been facing a very tough economic situation. If it takes direct military action, the West will seize the opportunity to attack it. That is, Iran will get bogged down in troubles that could threaten its security. At the same time, I am not saying Iran will be silent towards what is happening to the Houthis. It will support the Houthis financially and through the media, and will attempt to provide some military and logistical support. To their dismay, the coalition forces have controlled the air and marine routes.

Air strikes alone can not defeat the Houthis. Do you expect the coalition to send ground troops?
The leadership of the coalition forces says if ground forces are needed, they will send them. However, I think that in order for this operation to be successful, there should be aerial and marine assistance for a national Yemeni military on the ground. Yemenis are sensitive about foreign intervention. For the first time in Yemeni history, however, the majority of Yemenis support this intervention in order to combat the armed militants that have taken over their state. Anyway, I do not think sending ground troops is a good idea. Restructuring the military and deploying them is better.

You say the majority of Yemenis support the strikes. What do you base that claim on?
If the Houthis had the popularity, they could mobilize protests in governorates against the strikes.

People can be both against the airstrikes and against the Houthis.
Yes, that’s true.

The Houthis remain defiant, despite the significant damage done to their military capabilities. Following the strikes, what strengths do the Houthis have left?
Houthi rhetoric about their strength and resistance is highly exaggerated and arrogant. They are just postponing the inevitable, which is their end. If they were earnest about maintaining security and Yemeni unity, they could have transitioned into a political party. The group gained many advantages through the NDC outcomes.

In a speech delivered in Aden before fleeing, Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi said he will hoist the Yemeni flag on Maran Mountain of Sa'ada instead of the Iranian flag. What sort of support is Hadi betting on?
Hadi is betting on regional powers but also the Yemeni people. Hadi wants to send a clear message that not only is he going to defend Sana’a and Aden, but he’s going on the offensive and taking the Houthi stronghold of Sa’ada. That’s his target. That is, Hadi wants to say “we will attack.” He became more bold in his speech after feeling secure with regards to regional support. However, after Hadi's words the Houthi militants pushed towards the south, and they were about to take control of Aden. Then the intervention of the coalition forces came. Now the attacks against Houthi and Ali Saleh sites are among the means which could make Hadi reach Maran.

Targeting two mosques in the capital city weeks ago created a dangerous precedent. In your view, what is the purpose of this heinous crime at this critical time?  
I believe that the terrorist explosions in the capital of two mosques is a matter of targeting integrated social fabric that has remained united after all events since 2011 in order to avoid the country plunging into a civil strife. So the explosions targeted the fabrics of the society and aimed at giving a rise to the sectarian conflicts. This crime will remain an unforgettable wound and pain among Yemenis. I do not think it was only a terrorist group which plotted this act. Instead, I think there was international intelligence support in order to trigger the sectarian conflict in Yemen and lead the country to a civil war just it is happening in Iraq.

Finally, the war has broken out, is it possible the negotiating table will bring Yemeni factions together again?
I think the majority of the political factions still adhere to the national dialogue, and have not opted for a war. The Houthis and Saleh only reneged on the NDC outcomes. The political parties have not entered a war. Now the dialogue is open, but the political equations have changed. The Houthi group will not be accepted to be part of authority with its current structure. It should put weapons aside, apologize to Yemenis for its violence and transform to a political party. This will not happen unless the group has wise people inside it. And these wise people can form a national political party based on pluralism and democracy, not on sectarianism or the force of weapons. Otherwise, the Houthi group will disintegrate.