Election results: Exit poll puts Tories close to majority
- 8 May 2015
- From the section Election 2015
The Conservatives are set to be the largest party in the Commons but just short of a majority, according to the general election exit poll.
The survey taken at polling stations across the UK suggests the Tories will get 316 MPs to Labour's 239 when all the results have been counted.
It suggests the Lib Dems will get 10 MPs, the SNP 58, Plaid Cymru four, UKIP two and the Greens two.
The exit poll was conducted by NOP/MORI for the BBC, ITV and Sky.
Labour and the Lib Dems have both said they do not believe the exit poll result.
The first general election results have come in, with the last of the 650 expected on Friday afternoon.
The finishing line needed to form an absolute majority is 326, but because Sinn Fein MPs have not taken up seats and the Speaker does not normally vote, the finishing line has, in practice, been 323.
Labour has held on to three safe seats in Sunderland with increased majorities in early declarations, but there was a large swing to UKIP who came second ahead of the Conservatives in two seats, with the Lib Dems polling less than 1,000 votes and being beaten by the Greens.
Labour has so far failed to make the headway it had hoped for in London and South of England, with the Conservatives increasing their majorities in the seats they held, amid signs that the exit poll is proving accurate.
There is speculation from the count in South Thanet that UKIP leader Nigel Farage could fail in his bid to win the seat.
There is a recount in Bradford West, where George Galloway is battling Labour to retain the seat he won in a by-election.
Bradford Council has reported Mr Galloway to the police for allegedly breaking election law for tweeting about exit polls before polls closed, the BBC has learned.
If the exit poll is accurate, as it was in 2010, David Cameron could be on course to remain prime minister as the head of a minority government without the need for a coalition - although he might have to rely on the support of the DUP or the Lib Dems.
Even if Labour leader Ed Miliband was able to persuade the Lib Dems to join the SNP in backing a Labour government, he would not have the necessary numbers to get his legislative programme through Parliament in a Queen's Speech.
Analysis by BBC Political Correspondent Chris Mason
Already, Tories are using the language of victory: the Chief Whip Michael Gove told David Dimbleby on BBC One that if the exit poll was right, the Conservatives had "won".
They will make the case that if these numbers are accurate, they are the clear winners, even though they didn't quite make the finish line.
They'll be nervous that whilst they have "clearly won", as Mr Gove puts it, there could still, just, be the potential for an anti-Tory majority - if everyone else clubbed together.
Labour looks set to lose 19 seats overall, the exit poll suggests, but will suffer a hammering in Scotland at the hands of the SNP, with their vote dropping an average of 18% and the SNP predicted to take 58 of the 59 seats.
But the exit poll suggests it will be an even worse night for the Lib Dems, with the party's vote falling 16% on their 2010 share meaning they would lose 47 seats - worse than the most gloomy predictions before polling day.
Lib Dem election chief Lord Ashdown told the BBC: "If this exit poll is right I will publicly eat my hat."
'Huge caution'
Shadow chancellor Ed Balls told the BBC: "Even if the exit poll is right, that means the Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition majority has gone from 72 to zero - David Cameron's ability to hang on in Downing Street is on a knife-edge and he will have to reach out to get support from the Ulster unionists.
"If the exit poll is wrong just by 10 seats - and all the information is that there are very close fights between Labour and Conservatives in seats right across the country - then suddenly David Cameron won't be able to get a majority in the House of Commons and it will fall to Ed Miliband as leader of the Opposition to then put a Queen's Speech before Parliament."
Mr Balls added: "I hope our result is going to be a lot better than that. It's really in question whether David Cameron will be able to hang on as Prime Minister when he has been set back in this way.
"He said success for him was a majority. Even on the exit poll, he's not going to get that."
DUP candidate Sammy Wilson told BBC News there would be a "price to pay" for his party supporting any party in government, either in coalition or a looser deal, in terms of economic help for Northern Ireland.
A Labour source said of the exit poll: "We are sceptical of the BBC poll. It looks wrong to us."
But David Cameron, who is watching the election at his constituency home in Oxfordshire, said he was "pleased with the poll".
Conservative minster Michael Gove said: "We haven't had an incumbent government increase its majority like this since 1983 and it would be an unprecedented vote of confidence in David Cameron's leadership."
SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon was also cautious about the exit poll.
She tweeted: "I'd treat the exit poll with HUGE caution. I'm hoping for a good night but I think 58 seats is unlikely!"
UKIP deputy leader Paul Nuttall expressed doubts over the accuracy of the exit poll, and said the party was "buoyant and confident" that it would win more than two seats.
Giving her comment on the exit poll, Green Party leader Natalie Bennett said: "A doubling of MPs in parliament would obviously be a huge advance for the Green party."
YouGov poll
Exit pollsters interviewed 22,000 people in 141 polling locations in 133 constituencies throughout Great Britain.
Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University, who led the exit poll operations, said the results announced so far suggested the exit poll was accurate.
"Throughout the course of the day, we have had figures where in half of polling locations, Labour was advancing on Tories and in the other half Tories were advancing on Labour.
"So far as England and Wales are concerned there isn't much change in the balance between Conservative and Labour, but north of the border we are discovering the SNP seems to have done at least as well as the polls said they were going to."
The highs and lows of exit polls...
National exit polls have been used to predict the results of British general elections for 40 years, with mixed results. The 2010 exit poll result was as near perfection as one is likely to reach - but was greeted by fifty shades of disbelief as soon as it was published.
Read BBC polls expert David Cowling's analysis
A separate YouGov opinion poll of 6,000 people who had voted painted a much brighter picture for Mr Miliband, putting Labour and Tories tied on 34% each, UKIP on 12%, Lib Dems on 10%, the SNP and Plaid Cymru on 5% and Greens on 4%.
The survey was not an exit poll but was compiled by getting back in touch with people who had previously expressed a view to YouGov.
It was much closer to polling during the campaign, with a final poll of polls compiled by the Press Association putting Tories on 276 seats, Labour on 271, Lib Dems on 28, SNP 48, UKIP three and Greens one.
A total of 650 Westminster MPs will be elected, with about 50 million people registered to vote.
There are also more than 9,000 council seats being contested across 279 English local authorities.
Mayors will also be elected in Bedford, Copeland, Leicester, Mansfield, Middlesbrough and Torbay.
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