February 10, 2013
Over the past
two decades, many predicted the rise of Asia as an economic power to rival the
West. Now, as China has become the world’s second largest economy—perhaps to be
the largest within the next decade—and Asian tigers such as Korea and Taiwan, and the fast developing economies of South East Asia are also
proceeding in kind, Asia’s rise has become a fact. Many have begun to question
the political and military ramifications of Asia’s ascendance in the context of
weakened Western economies—ramifications that will doubtless redraw the map of
international relations in coming years. However, while the consequences of
Asia’s rise have been exhaustively analyzed in the global context, relatively
few have questioned the effect of a rising East on the rapid transformation of
the countries of the Middle East.
This is a
question that should not be ignored. First, it is entire political systems, not
just political leaders, which have begun to change in the aftermath of the
‘Arab Awakening.’ These changes will loosen, though not entirely shift, the
historical baggage carried by the countries of the Middle East and, as
governments slowly become more accountable to their people, they may begin to
develop more independent, self-interested, and globally-minded foreign
policies. This is especially true in the case of Egypt. Another development
that will re-shape the Middle East’s relationship with the world is the
discovery of massive shale oil deposits in North America and the invention of cost-effective
technologies to extract them. As the United States becomes less and less
dependent on the Arab Gulf states for its oil supply, those states will need to
search elsewhere for buyers. They will invariably turn to the oil-hungry
economies of India, China, and greater East Asia to pick up the slack. In turn,
Asia and especially China, will feel the need to develop ever-closer relations
with African and Arab nations as they increasingly pin their energy needs on
Middle Eastern reserves. This is a process that is already well under way in
the nations of the Arab Gulf and Sudan, and was in Libya and Syria until recent
political upheaval.
All of this
will have obvious repercussions for Western relations with the Arab World,
particularly Egypt and the Arab Gulf. Concurrently, relations between Egypt and
the Arab Gulf and China and other Asian powers will undergo a similar
transformation. It is hardly coincidence that the first official foreign visit
of Egypt’s new president, Mohammed Morsi, was to China. It is unrealistic to
expect the shift in economic, political, and military relationships that will
occur from these changes to occur immediately. The tangled web, which binds the
Arab World and the West together, is far too dense to come untwined anytime
soon. Nor could the military and naval capability of China, or any other Asian
nation, ever compensate for the withdrawal of U.S. military support from the
region. Still, it would be shortsighted
to ignore that Asia, and China in particular, will become an increasingly
important player in Middle Eastern politics over time. One has to look no
further than the Obama administration’s “pivot” towards Asia for confirmation
of a future Middle East less dominated by American interests.
In fact, the
Asian presence in the Middle East and, for lack of a better word, the Middle
Eastern “pivot” towards Asia have already started. In the automobile industry,
Asian companies have supplanted European auto manufacturers in the Middle
Eastern market, just as they did with electronics. This is particularly true
concerning South Korean companies such as Kia and Hyundai, but affordable
Chinese automobiles such as those offered by Chery have also become
increasingly popular. Outside of economic penetration, links between Pakistan,
India, and the Arab Gulf have expanded significantly in recent years. Pakistani
and Indian expats now constitute a large portion of Gulf populations, which
will ultimately have an effect on societal traditions there, while the
relationship between Pakistani, Indian, and Arab Gulf militaries have become
ever closer in recent decades. On the flip side of the evolving Asian presence
in the Middle East, Arab investment in Asia has also increased.
Relations
between Asia and the Middle East will become increasingly important to
policymakers on both sides in coming years. And this shift will inevitably
result in the expansion of, not only economic but also social, political, and
military relations. However, these changes will come slowly. While Asian
countries will play an increasingly important role in the Middle East, they
will not supplant the West in the near future.
Nabil
Fahmy, a former Egyptian ambassador to Japan and to the United
States, is the dean of the School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the
American University in Cairo.