The Mubarak Conviction: A Profound If Imprecise Turning Point
Rami G. Khouri
June 02, 2012
The conviction and life imprisonment
sentences handed down Saturday to former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and
former Interior Minister Habib Adli mark a profound but still imprecise turning
point in the single most important battle that has defined the Arab world for
the last two generations, and the last 60 years of uninterrupted military rule
in Egypt: the contest between whether the Arab people will be ruled by
democratically legitimate civilian authorities or by self-imposed and
self-perpetuating military rulers.
The convictions are profound because
they symbolically mark a victory by those tens of millions of Egyptians -- and
by extension, several hundred million other Arabs -- who have overthrown four
regimes and seriously challenged two others in the past 18 months, demanding
that their dictatorial rulers be held accountable for their brutality,
corruption and abuse of power. The demonstrators who braved dangers and often
died finally achieved their single most important symbolic goal, which is to
put on trial, convict and jail for life Hosni Mubarak and Habib Adli. They are
the most important symbols of thousands of other incumbent officials who
brutalized and demeaned the Egyptian people for decades. They also personify a
system of military rule that enriched a small circle of insiders, while
relegating the rest of the 80 million Egyptians to a long and degrading cycle
of poverty, mediocrity and marginalization.
In the last 30 years of Mubarak rule,
a once proud and productive Egyptian people and nation had been pummeled by its
own authoritarian military rulers into a wreck and a laughing stock. Trying,
convicting and jailing these two men for life, by an indigenous Egyptian court,
was probably the single most widespread and deeply felt desire among the
Egyptian people in the last 18 months. It sent the message that those who abuse
and degrade their own people will one day be held accountable, and that public
opinion in the Arab world matters again.
On another level, however, this court
case is also imprecise in its full meaning, both because of technical flaws and
some powerful underlying political messages. The technical flaws relate to
widespread skepticism about how the two senior leaders could be convicted in
the deaths of hundreds of demonstrators while six senior police and security
officers who were in charge of operational commands were found innocent and
released. This captures the underlying political message that many fear is
inherent in the Saturday verdicts: that the Egyptian security state will
sacrifice one or two senior officials to placate popular anger, while
preserving control of real power in the country by a web of military, police
and intelligence agencies.
This issue becomes all the more
significant because of the timing of the verdicts, two weeks before the run-off
presidential election and the planned handover of power to civilian authorities
by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) that has governed Egypt since
Mubarak’s overthrow in February 2011. One of the two presidential candidates,
Ahmad Shafik, a former Air Force commander and the last prime minister under
Mubarak, represents the attempt by the military-backed old guard to retain
power and effectively nullify the gains of the revolution. Today’s court
verdict increases fears among many Egyptians that the SCAF is shielding the
operational core of the deep security state from public scrutiny and accountability,
and will also work with the existing massive bureaucracy and the many security
agencies to engineer a Shafik victory over the Muslim Brotherhood candidate,
Mohammed Morsi.
Critics of the SCAF point out, for
example, that the former Mubarak government used biased military courts to try
some 2,000 critics over 30 years, while the SCAF has used the same military
courts to try over 12,000 Egyptians in the last year and a half, according to
estimates by human rights organizations that monitor this issue.
This is why the court verdict, while
satisfying the popular need for justice and retribution against former
dictators, only intensifies concerns throughout Egypt and the Arab world about
whether our region can ever get rid of military rulers, and enjoy true civilian
democratic rule. This remains the central battle of the Arab world today. It
plays itself out in different forms across the region, in countries like Egypt,
Tunisia, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain and Libya.
Two aging military rulers were
convicted and jailed in Cairo this week, but the military ruling edifice
remains largely in place. Hundreds of generals and colonels still contest and
negotiate power with the new civilian authorities that are trying to find their
footing in a country that itself is still in the early stages of redefining
itself, and deciding if its government will be managed by elected civilians or
more ageing generals and colonels. The great battle for the soul and identity
of Egypt and the Arab world continues.
Rami G. Khouri is Editor-at-large of The Daily Star, and Director of the Issam Fares Institute for
Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut,
in Beirut, Lebanon.
Copyright © 2012 Rami G. Khouri --
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