August 29, 2015
My affection and respect
for my good friend and colleague from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) with whom
I discussed current events in the Middle East over a leisurely Lebanese lunch
last week was matched by our very different analyses of how tensions between
Iran and Saudi Arabia shaped the situation across the Middle East.
He explained why the military
action by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and others in Yemen was a decisive step that
reflected the Gulf Arab states’ determination to stop Iran’s expanding
influence in and even control of some Arab countries. I suggested that such
Arab fears of Iranian dominance were exaggerated and unrealistic. I argued that
for decades both Saudi Arabia and Iran had used their available soft and hard
power instruments (money, religiosity, arms) to develop allies and improve
their strategic relations across the region.
In fact, they were both
acting in total accord with what regional powers routinely do in their regions,
which is to develop close relations with like-minded allies in other countries,
in order to promote and protect their national interests. Saudi Arabia in fact
should have a strategic advantage in this, because it is an Arab society while
Iranian-Persian culture is not.
The ability of Iran to
develop close strategic ties with some Arab parties in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq,
Bahrain, Palestine or Yemen, most notably, was due mainly to Tehran’s ability
to exploit divisions and tensions within those Arab societies. The Saudi-led
Arab Gulf states did the same thing. The minute that those troubled Arab lands
fixed themselves—which has not happened yet—the window for regional or foreign
powers to jump in and develop a foothold through strategic links with some of
the warring Arab parties would close.
In fact, I argued—bolstered
by the cosmic combination of Lebanese dessert and white coffee—neither Iran nor
Saudi Arabia has done very well in developing strategic relations of long-term
value. In Lebanon and Syria, for example, Iran has strong links with Hezbollah
and the shrinking regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad, but both these
actors face serious political challenges in their own societies. Saudi
Arabia’s allies similarly enjoy very mixed conditions, especially the
Sunni-dominated Future Movement in Lebanon and the anti-Assad rebels that Saudi
Arabia and others support, who do not show any signs of either winning great
popular support or being able to agree on an orderly transition to the
post-Assad era. The Ansarullah (Houthis) movement in Yemen is probably more of
a burden than a benefit to Iran, and the Saudi-led war in Yemen is likely to
create as many long-term problems as it resolves immediate threats of perceived
Iranian hegemonic penetration.
Neither Riyadh nor Tehran
strike me as being in a healthy regional situation with their assorted allies
and friends across the Arab region—mainly because these local Arab allies are
precisely the players that have long contributed to the divisive politics and
militant ideologies that are tearing apart the Arab world. Fueling the regional
equivalent of local cockfights only guarantees that the air will be filled with
more bloodied feathers, which is the situation we have across much of the Arab
world today.
I assume in my analysis
that Saudi Arabia and Iran do not plan to attack, control or weaken the other
in the long run—which they cannot do even if they tried, given their respective
power and legitimacy. Their many greater strategic interests should prod them
to tone down their emotional and immature confrontational statements and
actions, and instead act as the strong, mature regional powers that they are. They
should start by leading a bold diplomatic process to shape a Gulf-centric,
Middle Eastern regional security architecture that is modeled on the Helsinki
Process of a generation ago between the American- and Soviet-led camps. That
agreement accepted mutually divergent political and social ideologies, rejected
military threats, and allowed social, economic, and political developments all
around to run their course.
Both Iran and the Gulf
states face serious socio-economic and environmental challenges that require
their full attention, for which sustained economic growth would be the
most productive anchor in the years ahead. The regional issues where Iran and
Saudi Arabia must work together for their common wellbeing—replacing the
catastrophic militarism of the United States-led Western powers—dwarf the
simplistic perceived threats that seem to drive them now. These include
defeating the “Islamic State” and associated militant Salafist-takfiri threats;
stabilizing Syria, Iraq and Lebanon in configurations that those countries
citizens determine are best for them; contributing to finding a permanent
Arab-Israeli peace agreement; reshaping constructive long-term relations with
slightly dazed regional powers like Turkey and Egypt; and, tackling the
existential threat to the entire region of at least 100 million young and
middle age Arabs whose poverty, lack of educational achievements, and sense of
lifelong hopelessness and poverty are the biggest danger that faces everyone in
the region.
We finished our lunch
over a slow coffee, embraced, and went our ways, looking forward to the next
gathering. I was reinvigorated by our mutual reaffirmation of the principle
that when friends disagree on political issues, they should enjoy a good meal
together, discuss the relevant issues with full candor and respect, learn from
each other, and get up from the table feeling wiser and more humble. That would
be my advice to the Iranian and Saudi Arabian leaderships for when they find
themselves at the UN General Assembly meetings in New York next month. That
amazing delegates dining room at the UN headquarters beckons them like a
guiding star from the political heavens.
Rami G. Khouri is
published twice weekly in the Daily
Star. He was founding director and now senior policy fellow of the Issam
Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American
University of Beirut. On Twitter @ramikhouri.
Copyright ©2015 Rami G. Khouri -- distributed by Agence Global