In America, you can't legally bet on political outcomes (at least not yet). But if you could, we'd advise you to put some money on the government shutting down on Oct. 1.
As Congress gets back to work this week, it's facing a nearly unprecedented number of deadlines and political dramas. The government needs to be funded by Sept. 30, but Congress is way behind in passing the series of spending bills necessary to pass a full budget. Instead, lawmakers will probably try to pass a short-term budget extension that basically keeps spending levels the same as last year and keeps the government open.
But even that's going to be tough. Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are using the budget process to push their ideological agendas on everything from abortion to military spending to international nuclear deals. And there's a presidential campaign going on, complicating the decisions and actions of the five senators running for the White House. (And in the Senate, sometimes it only takes one.)
Here are four congressional budget analysts' predictions on how likely it is that the government will shut down. We'll start with the most conservative estimate -- which is still "well over 50 percent."
That's the prediction from Peter Orszag, President Obama's former budget director and the former head of the Congressional Budget Office.
In an Aug. 31 interview with CNBC's "Squawk Box," Orszag noted that Congress is probably not going to pass the 12 separate spending bills needed to set a new budget for federal agencies (the House has passed just six, and the Senate has passed zero.) No real surprise there. So Congress's next and likeliest option is to renew last year's budget, known as a continuing resolution, and essentially kick the can down the road.
That simple task got much more complicated with the fight over Planned Parenthood, he said.
Since an anti-abortion advocacy group leaked videos of officials from the women's health provider talking in cavalier tones about fetal tissue, Republicans on the presidential campaign trail and in Congress are calling for the federal government to stop giving more than $500 million annually to Planned Parenthood. Some lawmakers have indicated they're willing to risk shutting down the government to defund the organization.
Needless to say, it's a very charged issue -- one that could lead plenty of lawmakers to take very bold action.
[How the Planned Parenthood debate could cause another government shutdown]
Planned Parenthood was an unforeseen drama for many budget-watchers, including Steve Bell, the director of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center and a former top Republican congressional budget aide.
As 2015 started, Bell was hopeful that GOP congressional leaders could avoid another government shutdown. But he now puts the chances of a shutdown at 60 percent, pointing to many Republicans' intransigence on Planned Parenthood, in addition to a debate about whether to restart the Export-Import Bank (the agency Congress let expire in June) and a debate over how much or whether to raise the debt ceiling, which allows the Treasury Department to borrow money to pay our bills.
"We're going to have this horrible mess, and we may or may not be able to pass the first [short-term budget] on time," Bell said in an interview.
As Congress left for its five-week recess, prominent budget analyst Stan Collender estimated the possibility of a shutdown at 60 percent. Now, he thinks it's even more likely.
Most everyone in Washington agrees that the automatic spending cuts (a.k.a. the sequester) that were implemented after a 2012 budget debate need to be replaced with actual spending policy. But there are major sticking points between the White House and congressional Republicans over cutting military versus domestic spending, Collender wrote on Forbes.com.
More importantly, the Planned Parenthood debate was roiling -- a "highly emotional, politically toxic and take-no-prisoners issue," Collender wrote.
On Congress's first day back Tuesday, the potential for a shutdown jumped to 67 percent, Collender wrote. That's because another highly emotional and dramatic debate was bubbling to the surface: the Iran nuclear deal. On Tuesday, President Obama secured enough votes to potentially stop Republicans in the Senate from even voting to derail the deal. But, similar to Planned Parenthood and Obamacare in 2013, opponents of the deal could use the budget debate to try to stop the Iran deal from being funded.
"When combined with the expected efforts to defund Planned Parenthood, [the Iran deal] will add significant highly emotional fuel to the partisan fire and make a government shutdown far more politically palatable," Collender wrote.
To recap, we have the Planned Parenthood debate, the Export-Import Bank, debates over military vs. domestic spending, the Iran nuclear deal and the debt limit all threatening to play a part in at least a temporary government shutdown. Oh yeah, and Congress still has to okay a fund by Oct. 29 to help pay for highways and bridges (known as the Highway Trust Fund).
Put that all together, and it's 70 percent likely the government will shut down for at least a day or two, Jim Manley, a former high-ranking Senate Democratic aide to then-Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), told The Fix. There's simply too much to get done and too many pressure points.
This was kind of a depressing article, and if you're fretting about the shutdown, consider this: Maybe the threat of a shutdown is necessary to spur Congress in action to solve all our problems -- or at least agree to keep the government running. (And don't forget that all the government employees last time got their back pay when the government reopened.)
"Nothing in this day and age gets done without the threat of cliffs," Manley pointed out.
True, and sometimes that threat is enough to forge an 11th-hour compromise, as it did in 2011 when Manley was one of many predicting a shutdown.
